Monday, December 31, 2007
In about a week, temperatures will be soaring into the 40's to perhaps the 50's and after about a 10 day stint of departures of +4 to +8 degrees, we will start to return to a wintertime pattern. BTW, Boston did not break the record. Only picked up 0.8" of snow from this past storm, bringing them to 27.7" for the month of December, just 0.3" shy of setting the new record.
Thats it for 2007, I will see you next year.
For tomorrow, I think that from Boston points S&E, there will be mostly rain out of this next one. There could be a slushy inch of snow for places close to Boston, say up to Brockton and Milton, however, that would be about it. Once you get past Boston and especially past Route 128, an accumulation of 1-4" is possible. More if there is less mixing with rain, less if there is. You have to get out towards the Worcester Hills and western MA, southern NH to get into any significant snow. I am pretty confident that a good 5-9" of snowfall is possible here. NW of here, that is where the bonanza with this next storm will likely be. Snowfall amounts of 7-14" are possible, but if one model is right, we would have to cut QPF in half and in turn cut all these snowfall accumulations in half, so that is why I am not at all confident of this approaching storm system, coupled with the fact that I just busted BIG TIME with today's storm. Sorry about that. Did not expect to wake up to rain pounding my window 2-3AM.
I will have more on this forecast later and show if there is any warnings or advisories issued by the NWS later today.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Here is my city by city snowfall forecast....
Friday, December 28, 2007
Next things we want to peg down with this storm will be...
1) Timing...when is this going to start. Right now it looks like Sunday night around midnight.
2) Duration....As I said before, looks like an 8-12 hour bout of heavy accumulating snows, longer duration would make all the difference.
3) QPF...how much 'water' is going to fall from the sky.
4) Snow Ratios...right now I would say right around a 10:1 ratio, which is not a fluffy snow, but not glopping wet which would be 5:1 ratio.
5) Winds...strong winds coupled with heavy wet snow would result in power outages and some minor splashover.
6) Exact Track of LP...will as always make all the difference on who sees what type of precipitation. Looking right now like an all snow event away from South Coast and Cape.
7) Speed of LP...will determine the starting time and duration.
8) Monitor your Thermometer at Home...a temperature of 31 will make a world of difference compared to temperatures around 33-34 degrees for accumulations.
I will be back on tomorrow for any watches that will likely be issued by the NWS. Go out and buy some bread and milk. Oh yeah, don't forget to stock on the nachos for the big game tomorrow thats on every channel. Lay off the beandip though...just kidding. Anyway, bring an umbrella out with you tonight if your going to be out on the town past midnight. Rain is moving in.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING STORM DISCUSSION: This storm has been on the models forever it seems, and all over the maps. Earlier this week, the GFS had this storm going weakly out to sea in a flat progressive pattern. Today, the GFS is right about ready to go gangbusters for much of the I-95 corridor from DC to Portland, ME. Everywhere from NYC northward to Boston on the latest 12z GFS run would be getting a fairly decent dump of snow on the order of 6"+. Mixing issues will always have to be watched down on the Cape. Sorry guys. But there is another reliable model, not very reliable lately, that takes the storm out to sea, but in the past several runs, it looks to be siding with the more amplified GFS, EURO, and UKMET, and JMA for that matter. That is pretty good agreement in my book.
My concerns with this storm system is that there is no blocking high pressure over SE Canada to stop this NW trend on the models. I see no reason why this won't keep going west, northwest on the next runs, by say 50 miles or more. There is nothing there to stop it. I don't think it will become on Appalachians runner, but if it wants to hug the coast more, then we will have precip type problems in southern New England, especially along the coast. However, with the models the way they are looking right now and the fact that we are heading inside 60 hours for this impending storm, I believe that much of SNE has a good shot at seeing some significant snows Sunday night and ending Monday early afternoon. I will be watching this like a hawk, I can tell you that.
Tonight's 00z and tomorrow's 12z runs will be HUGE as they will pretty much nail the final track of the storm system. Right now I like where we are sitting and am becoming increasingly confident that somewhere in SNE will see a fairly good dump (6"+) from this Nor'easter. I am almost certain that Boston will get that 1.1" to break the all-time snowiest December record of 1970 as well. Not etched in stone just yet, but I'm pretty confident. Maps will start to be posted later today, if not, tomorrow.
One thing is for sure. The skiing this weekend in the north country will be excellent with many resorts reporting the best ski conditions in many many years. Many areas up north picked up between 4-6" of snow yesterday and as we here in SNE get rained on tonight, they will be picking up some more powder. Many ski resorts in northern NH and ME will pick up between 4-8" of snow tonight from this storm system. Northern New England could do well with the storm come Sunday night as well, so you can imagine that the skiing will be excellent.
More on the storm tonight/tomorrow.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Right now I would say that there will be a few snow showers in the air for First Night, but I can claim to much more than that. Temperatures around midnight Tuesday will be very cold. Boston will likely see temperatures dipping into the middle 20's as areas outside of the city will quickly be falling through the upper 10's. This will yield a frigid and windy back to school Wednesday with temperatures in the morning in the single digits, while afternoon temperatures only struggle to hit 20 degrees. Thereafter, we will have a 3-4 day period of cold weather before the entire country east of the Rockies will start to warm up. We could see next week with highs in the 20's mainly, but going into the weekend and especially the next week, we could be seeing high temperatures pushing 55-60 degrees. The January Thaw. Its a long way out, so it will need to be watched.
Thats all for today.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
This is outlined in my map for snowfall in Part 2 of tomorrow's wintery weather. Where that band of heavy snow develops as always with 'Norlun' type setups, that is where the heaviest snowfall accumulations will be. Last week it setup from Portsmouth, NH to Boston, MA. Much of NE Mass and NH picked up 6-10" of snowfall, after having morning news outlets forecasting 1-2" Boston the morning of the event. So this will be a very changeable forecast. Right now, I think that is where the heavy snowfall will take place, but there will be a wide swath of light to moderate snowfall with this one for much of New England, unlike last week with some places seeing close to a foot and others some twenty miles away seeing coating. There will be a wide swath of 2-4", with locally 5" of snowfall with this one from north of the Mass Pike all the way into central VT and northern NH and central ME. Boston will be on the line, so a couple inches is possible in the city itself, which would be enough to break the December snowfall record of some 37 years. Down on the South Coast to the Cape, it will be cold enough for snow, but I think you will be removed from the heaviest of the precipitation, so you will see generally under one inch of snowfall. Extreme northern New England will be removed from the heaviest of precipitation as well so 1-2" for much of northern ME to under one inch along the Canadian border.
This is a very changeable forecast that will likely turn into a 'nowcast' type of event. Right now, I like my maps for this event up above, so expect a wintery ride home tomorrow because most of this snow will be falling in the 3PM - 8PM timeframe, just perfectly placed to ruin your drive home. I will have updates all day today and tomorrow with any advisories that get posted from the NWS. I could see some warnings being posted in SW Maine, but that is yet to be determined. Check in later.
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
POSSIBLE THURSDAY STORM DISCUSSION: That said, there will be a period of light to moderate rain on the South Shore and Cape, with perhaps a rain/snow mix all the way up to Boston, Worcester, and possibly up to say Lowell. This would not accumulate, but we will turn our eyes out towards western New York State at this time to see a band of snow with a seperate system advancing towards New England. Both of these storms will start to 'link' up right over southern and central New England, which will cause snow to develop for much of New England at this time, with perhaps a mixture of rain and snow down on the South Shore and Cape Cod. North of the Pike, Thursday evening and night, perhaps right around the evening rush, the snow will pick up in intensity and start to accumulate. Right now it looks like south-central Vermont and New Hampshire through Maine look to do the best with this storm system, but those accumulating snows could very well make it down to Boston. As you probably know, Boston only needs 1.1" to break the old record set in 1970 for December snowfall, the record being 27.9". Boston currently sits at 26.9", just one inch off the record books. I am not sold on accumulating snow just yet as the usual case is that one model shows nothing while the other gives us a bit of accumulating snow on the tune of a couple inches. Such differences, only 24-48 hours out! So, I will hold off on making any maps just yet. I may make one tomorrow morning/afternoon, as more data comes in. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.
VERY PRELIMINARY CALL: If I had to make a guess at this time. I would say maybe a coating from northern CT/RI along the Mass border. Nothing South Coast and Cape. Along the Pike into Boston up to Route 2, I would go with a light, but sloppy, 1-2" of snow. North of Route 2 into southern-central VT and NH through southern ME, 2-5" of snow is possible. These numbers will most certainly have to be fine tuned tomorrow, and especially tomorrow night as the final data comes in.
This storm will have lots of surprises, so expect the forecast to change. Thereafter, a warm rainstorm is slated for Saturday before we cool off again going into the New Year.
Monday, December 24, 2007
Thereafter, it looks like we could cool and we could see some light snow sometime later next weekend. That is way far out I won't even go into it. More tomorrow and enjoy your Christmas Eve.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
I want to stress that this is an ever evolving storm system and it will need to be watched through tonight through tomorrow and through the actual event to see where exactly this heavy band of snow decides to set up. Someone in eastern New England will wind up with up to 8" from this...where that is, is too hard to pin point at this time. Stay tuned.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Boston 8.8 1200PM 12/16 (Logan Airport)
WEST FALMOUTH 4.9 830 AM 12/16
SANDWICH 4.6 801 AM 12/16
BOURNE 4.3 852 AM 12/16
CENTERVILLE 3.5 648 AM 12/16
HYANNIS 2.5 646 AM 12/16
SAGAMORE 2.0 649 AM 12/16
MANSFIELD 7.0 1251 PM 12/16
ATTLEBORO 6.5 114 PM 12/16
TAUNTON 6.1 1250 PM 12/16 NWS OFFICE
NORTON 6.0 859 AM 12/16 CO-OP
REHOBOTH 5.4 1040 AM 12/16
FALL RIVER 5.0 854 AM 12/16
NORTH ATTLEBORO 5.0 1236 PM 12/16
TAUNTON COMMON 5.0 808 AM 12/16
ACUSHNET 4.0 651 AM 12/16
NEW BEDFORD 3.6 750 AM 12/16
VINEYARD HAVEN 2.0 651 AM 12/16
SALEM 10.5 238 PM 12/16
BEVERLY 10.0 1233 PM 12/16
GLOUCESTER 10.0 101 PM 12/16
METHUEN 9.5 1025 AM 12/16
MARBLEHEAD 9.0 932 AM 12/16
SOUTH LAWRENCE 9.0 303 PM 12/16
TOPSFIELD 9.0 1040 AM 12/16
DOWNTOWN LAWRENCE 8.5 1112 AM 12/16
LAWRENCE 8.5 1112 AM 12/16
WENHAM 8.5 1040 AM 12/16
WEST PEABODY 8.0 1112 AM 12/16
GEORGETOWN 7.5 1114 AM 12/16
PEABODY 7.5 1109 AM 12/16
IPSWICH 7.1 249 PM 12/16
NEWBURYPORT 7.0 905 AM 12/16
HAVERHILL 6.5 1001 AM 12/16
NORTHFIELD 9.5 1024 AM 12/16
EAST CHARLEMONT 8.5 313 PM 12/16
LEVERETT 7.9 325 PM 12/16
CHARLEMONT 7.5 843 AM 12/16
GREENFIELD 7.0 750 AM 12/16
EAST WHATELY 6.0 229 PM 12/16
SUNDERLAND 6.0 933 AM 12/16
SHELBURNE 5.0 854 AM 12/16
DRACUT 11.0 1200 PM 12/16
LOWELL 10.3 225 PM 12/16
LITTLETON 10.0 1004 AM 12/16
EAST PEPPERELL 9.7 239 PM 12/16
PEPPERELL 9.7 239 PM 12/16
WAKEFIELD 9.5 152 PM 12/16
ARLINGTON HEIGHTS 9.0 1235 PM 12/16
HUDSON 9.0 1115 AM 12/16
READING 8.8 1116 AM 12/16
WOBURN 8.5 1147 AM 12/16
TOWNSEND 8.5 1244 PM 12/16
DUNSTABLE 8.4 100 PM 12/16
CAMBRIDGE 8.0 927 AM 12/16
FRAMINGHAM 8.0 1255 PM 12/16
NATICK 7.5 1255 PM 12/16
SHIRLEY 7.5 1016 AM 12/16
WINCHESTER 7.5 127 PM 12/16
ARLINGTON 7.0 928 AM 12/16
AYER 7.0 940 AM 12/16
Thats it...we may see a few snow shower tonight, but other than that, the storm is over and clear the snow in eastern Massachusetts before the flash freeze tonight. You have a few more hours. Back to regular forecasting tomorrow with the extended forecast. This was a wild week!
Saturday, December 15, 2007
I pushed the snow lines further SE from my earlier thinking. It will now be going into nowcasting mode and watching observations. It will be a tough forecast. Lets get through this one and then next week will be much more quiet. Beware of the flash freeze tomorrow night. Whatever slush is on your driveway tomorrow night will be there for quite a while.
Updates tomorrow with observations and radars. Its going to be a wild ride. Oh yeah, winds up to 60mph tomorrow afternoon with heavy wet snow could lead to power outages north of the Pike. Keep that in mind. Have your generator on standby for the 1PM kickoff of the Pats and Jets.
I will do my city by city forecast for this storm....
Providence..........Less than 1"
I will post any advisories or warnings that should go up today by the NWS.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Warning...if this storm tracks a little farter SE, push that 6-12" into Boston. It it travels a little farther NW, then we will see mainly rain here in eastern New England. Right now, I like the track where it is. The GFS has been extremely consistent in this track for a couple days now and I feel this is the best forecast right now.
Update tonight or tomorrow if any watches or warnings are to be posted by the NWS.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Timeline....Snow starts from west to east from noon to 3PM. It will end sometime before midnight now. It will be an amazing storm with the peak of the storm during the evening commute with snowfall rates of about 2-4"/hr. That strip near Hartford/Providence/Plymouth to Brockton to get that 12"+.
It's going to be a mess. Stay tuned for later forecasts.
1PM UPDATE: Our first major winter storm of the 2007-2008 season is upon us here in SNE. We have a quick hitting winter storm on the way for tomorrow. You wouldn't know that a big snowstorm was on its way to SNE if you stepped outside today. Temperatures are all the way into the mid 50's down on the southeastern part of the state. Even I am flirting with around 50 degrees this afternoon, whith much of the snowcover vanished with a gusty wind. However, a cold front is in the wings and will drop temperatures into the upper teens and low 20's come morning to set the stage for our first significant snowstorm of the season. This storm will just be an appetizer for what could become a blockbuster of a storm Sunday. I'll tell you, this is what I live for! The models have been going back and forth regarding tomorrow's storm system, but one model hung tough the entire time and never wavered. For weather enthusiasts like myself, we should all give the GFS a round of applause. NAM crapped the bed, but now it is on board with the big storm for tomorrow.
So first of all, winter storm watches and heavy snow warnings are already in effect down in CT and RI...I would expect watches/warnings to make it up to all of Massachusetts and southern NH, except the seacoast of NH, as they will probably get an advisory from their NWS. The rest of SNE will likely get a heavy snow warning/winter storm warning from Taunton NWS.
The timing of this storm is very compact. We will likely see snow break out sometime after dark tomorrow night, say around 7-10PM. It will quickly become heavy. In fact, we will only have a SIX TO EIGHT HOUR period of accumulating snow. You can imagine with the snowfall totals I am forecasting...snowfall rates could approach 1-3"/hr. Visibilities will come under 1/4 mile overnight Thursday, so be careful if you have to be out late. Snow will wrap up before say 5-7AM on Friday morning and I believe most school districts, especially south of Route 2 will be closed. Delays north of there. So enjoy the warmth now and we will take it one storm at a time. As you are shoveling and snowblowing Friday, I will talk about the storm that will probably bring more heavy snow into all of New England come Saturday afternoon and night. Better yet, just wait until Sunday night to shovel.
We've got a busy few days ahead. Enjoy!
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SELECTED CITIES...
Boston, MA 6.5"
Lexington, MA 6"
Worcester, MA 7"
Methuen, MA 4"
Plymouth, MA 8"
Foxboro, MA 10"
Hyannis, MA 6"
Springfield, MA 7"
Salisbury, MA 4"
Providence, RI 9"
Warwick, RI 8"
Newport, RI 5.5"
Coventry, RI 10"
Hartford, CT 7"
Tolland, CT 8"
Bridgeport, CT 5"
Nashua, NH 5"
Manchester, NH 3"
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
I will put out a call for the Thursday event tomorrow, sorry for being really close to the event, but there is too much room for error right now to make a prediction. It could go either way at this point.
Any maps/discussion of the potential weekend storm will have to wait until this first storm is safely behind us on Friday. A nice warmup.
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Winter Storm Watches have been posted for interior SNE, south of I-90 this afternoon for ice accretions of 0.3" to 0.5"+, which would cause havoc on the power lines and trees. Widespread power outages would be possible. This may either go to a warning (winter or ice storm) or advisory tomorrow and north of the Pike will see a winter weather advisory go up, if not a Winter Storm Warning in southern New Hampshire. I will have more on this forecast tomorrow.
Snowfall/Ice for a few selected cities....
Providence, RI....2" (to sleet/ice)
Harford, CT....1" (to freezing rain)
Boston, MA....2" (to sleet/rain)
Worcester, MA....2.5" (to sleet)
Fitchburg, MA....4" (some sleet mixes in at end)
Burlington, MA....3.5" (sleet mixes in around conclusion)
Springfield, MA....2" (to sleet/freezing rain)
Cape Cod....Mainly rain
Thats all for tonight. More tomorrow.
There is a wide model discrepancy between the NAM and GFS this afternoon, however. GFS paints lots of snow, north of the Pike and a good amount south, but the NAM doesn't give anyone in SNE more than an inch or two, so you can see this is a high stakes, low confidence forecast. A forecast that will likely change. I played it in the middle. Either way, the Monday AM commute is going to be messy with more delays and cancellations likely again.
More on this forecast tomorrow with any advisories, watches, or warnings underway.
Friday, December 07, 2007
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
That will move out and modify temperatures for this weekend. We may even get closer to normal on Saturday with highs getting back into the low 40's, perhaps. The normal high for this date is about 44 degrees, so a couple degrees below normal will feel mild compared to what we have been going through. We cool a bit on Sunday and then we get into a messy storm situation for early next week. There will be multiple ripples of low pressure along a nationwide frontal system that will need to be watched. The cold air will be just to our north and if any one storm can tap into it, we could be talking of a snowstorm around these parts, but for now, I will play it conservative and say that it will stay mostly wet than white. Any snow would be confined to ski country, where they will take all they can get.
More on that complex early week weather situation tomorrow, even more likely this weekend, after discussing our possible light snow for Friday night. No need to post accumulation maps, but just keep it in the back of your mind if you have dinner plans Friday night and see a little festive snowfall, just to remind us that there are under 20 shopping days left.
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
NEWBURYPORT 4.5 650 AM 12/4 NWS COOP
LAWRENCE 4.0 651 AM 12/3
METHUEN 4.0 820 AM 12/3
SALISBURY 3.5 608 AM 12/3
TOPSFIELD 3.3 645 AM 12/3 SPOTTER
WEST PEABODY 2.8 732 AM 12/3 SPOTTER
IPSWICH 2.6 541 AM 12/3
SUNDERLAND 5.2 940 AM 12/4
EAST CHARLEMONT 3.5 1020 AM 12/3
GREENFIELD 3.0 700 AM 12/4 NWS COOP
TYNGSBOROUGH 4.8 806 AM 12/3 SPOTTER
PEPPERELL 4.7 734 PM 12/3 SPOTTER
DRACUT 4.3 154 AM 12/4 SPOTTER
WINCHESTER 3.8 1003 AM 12/3
LOWELL 3.6 720 AM 12/3 NWS COOP
WOBURN 3.5 820 AM 12/3 SPOTTER
NORTH WILMINGTON 3.3 415 AM 12/3
EAST PEPPERELL 3.1 627 AM 12/3
READING 3.0 904 AM 12/3 HAM RADIO
TOWNSEND 3.0 604 AM 12/3
AYER 2.5 653 AM 12/3 SPOTTER
WALTHAM 2.5 725 AM 12/3 SPOTTER
EAST BOSTON 1.3 1100 AM 12/3 LOGAN AIRPORT
BIRCH HILL DAM 3.0 705 AM 12/4 NWS COOP
ASHBURNHAM 2.5 355 AM 12/3
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Cape Cod sees some snow showers tonight and will see a dusting to rain, all will wash away.
The pink area includes Hartford, Providence, and immediate Boston. Here we will see a longer period of snowfall, changing over around daybreak. Before that 1-3" may fall and before the flip to rain we will see a period of sleet or freezing rain.
The light blue area includes Worcester, Bedford, to Lowell and Lawrence. Here the snow will last longer, before a switch to sleet or freezing rain. Plain rain will not even likely make it to this area. 3-6" is likely here.
Northern New England gets the bonanza with this storm. Southern New Hampshire gets a solid 6-12 inches, while the ski resorts get a solid 12-18"+ of fluffy white gold. There will no doubt be packed powder conditions up there all this week.
Next chance of snow comes Thursday.
Saturday, December 01, 2007
1PM UPDATE - My snowfall forecast from this morning had to be thrown out. NWS out of Taunton is downplaying this storm system greatly with their 12:15PM Update. They are saying it is going to be hard to get over 1-2" of snow inside Route 495 with this storm and what does fall will be washed away. I have stuck by the models that were showing mostly snow for areas north of the Mass Pike, but the 12z GFS came out and has the rain/snow line all the way into southern VT and NH. The NAM still has that rain/snow line south of the Pike, but I have seen the NAM lag in this department and is overdoing the cold air, as usual. That rain/snow line will probably make it as far north as Nashua or Manchester, NH at the height of the storm, but the sleet will be the major factor that limits snowfall accumulation in SNE. For when it would be cold enough to support all snow even into Boston, the upper layers will warm enough to produce a sleet storm. Unfortunately, that is how it is looking now. I'm going to stick by this map until I see new data either bringing in more warm air or cold air. Yesterday the trend was for colder and colder, but today the trend has been in the other direction. Warmer and warmer. I wouldn't be surprised if I had to lower these snowfall accumulations for SNE.
South Shore, Cape, South Coast.........Brief mix to rain
Central CT to inside Route 128.......Mix to mainly rain; maybe an inch
Outside 128 through Worcester County....Snow to Sleet; 1-3"
Southern NH and VT.......Mainly Snow to some Sleet; 4-8"
Ski Country in VT, NH, and ME......Heavy Snow; 8-16"
All areas may end as snow on Monday afternoon, but accumultions would be limited as there is not much moisture after noontime Monday. This one just didn't pan out for SNE.
Friday, November 30, 2007
I will post a more detailed snowfall map with numbers sometime tonight or tomorrow.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
It is still way out there, but preliminarily, I would say that areas south of the Pike and along the immediate coast may see a slushy coating on the onset with that quickly being washed away with temperatures rising into the 40's and maybe some 50's on the South Coast on Monday. North of the Pike, generally NW of Rt. 128 and especially Rt. 495, there may be a slushy inch or two of snowfall and snowfall amounts will quickly increase to about 3-6" through southern Vermont and southwest New Hampshire with some parts of northern New England likely seeing over 6" of snowfall Monday.
It's still a wait and see situation, so stay tuned to later changing forecasts. After the storm, very cold weather will pour into New England with highs likely 25 to 35 degrees on Tuesday across the six state region.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Then comes the storm threat for the end of the weekend and Monday. Yesterday and as early as this morning, it looked like we were going to see our first significant snowstorm of the season, but the models have since changed and most it not all of calling for a Lakes Cutter, so that warm air will surge into SNE on a southerly gale and warm us up enough to see plain rain. Ahead of the warm front, we may start as a brief initial period of rain/snow/sleet, but that would quickly transition to rainfall, especially near the coasts. If you want to see all snow, you would have to travel to the far reaches of Northern New England, and even there, a wintry mix cannot be ruled out. Some models go as far as to bring temperatures up into the 50's and 60's again with showery rains into areas of southern New England on Monday, similar to today, especially south of the Mass Pike.
Basically, if you were hoping for a snowstorm to end the weekend, our chances of seeing significant snow are dwindling and FAST!
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Once it does clear up on early Tuesday we will be talking about a warm afternoon with gradual clearing. Highs will be in the mid 50's and the smell of spring will be upon us once again after leaving on Thanksgiving Day. It will be short-lived, though, with the cold really coming back after seasonable temperatures Wednesday through Friday, mainly in the 40's.
By the start of the weekend, we will be in the low 30's with all eyes turning southwest, looking for our next storm coming with a renewed source of cold air for New England. We will have to wait and see how this eventually pans out for the first of December, with the NAO crashing by this time period. It could get interesting...
Thursday, November 22, 2007
This will usher in the cold and an end to the extreme warmth at least until the next storm system moves in for the early to middle part of next week. First tomorrow will be a much colder and windier day with highs only managing mid to upper 30's. It will feel more like late December, early January out there. Overnight lows will really plummet on Friday night. Low in the suburbs will come down to between 10-15 degrees. The cities will hold onto the warmth a bit longer, with lows coming down to between 25-30 degrees, in Boston. Providence/Hartford will fall to 20-25 degrees.
Then we will start to warm up ahead to the next storm and then we will be talking about a warm windswept rain for Tuesday through the day, likely tapering later in the afternoon with temperatures dropping later. Then we will be back to the cold and wind for Wednesday.
Any snow in the forecast? I don't see it right now. It looks to be dry this weekend when we would have cold enough temperatures to produce snowfall, but once we get some precipitation the temperatures will warm enough for us to see all rain on Monday night into Tuesday.
Thereafter, its too far to know for sure what will happen. These computer models are bad enough going 3-4 days out.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Tomorrow will be mainly dry for all the football games in the morning for 10AM kickoffs. We should be very mild with temperatures in the 50's at this time. The rain will not move in until later in the afternoon. Once the rain moves in, plummeting temperatures will not be too far behind. By midnight, temperatures will already be falling through the 40's and be in the mid 30's outside of Boston.
8AM Tailgating.......Cloudy & Warm; Around 50
10AM Kickoff..........Cloudy/Chance of Shower; Low 50's
2PM Turkey Dinner............Chance of Shower; Low to Middle 50's
6PM Nap...............Showers Likely; Upper 40's
12AM Late Night Parties.......Showers; Upper 30's
Finally, I want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving and all get to share it with the people you care about most. I'll have an update on the coldwave coming tomorrow afternoon after the turkey and football.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
EAST CHARLEMONT 2.3 1050 AM 11/20 SPOTTER
GREENFIELD 2.0 1143 AM 11/20 SPOTTER
SUNDERLAND 1.8 1057 AM 11/20 SPOTTER.
GRANBY 1.6 1039 AM 11/20 SPOTTER
PAXTON 2.5 1151 AM 11/20 HAM RADIO
So today was a nice little surprise. The snow quickly moved into the Boston area around 10AM this morning and reduced visibility quite a bit in a few places. In the heat of the snow, the visibility came down to between 1/2 to 1 mile. My unofficial reading for Woburn, MA is 0.5" The snow shut off around 1PM as the main shield of precipitation moved to the SE. The forecast does not hold any more snow for southern New England, but we could be seeing some more rain for Thanksgiving Day. Could be some sloppy football games on Thursday morning.
Monday, November 19, 2007
There is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the Berkshires and southern Vermont, for some accumulating snow and light ice accretion.
Here is what the NWS out of Taunton is thinking about tomorrow.
TUESDAY... CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN EARLY DUE TO LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST... HIGH TEMPS GIVEN BY MOS WILL BEREDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOMELIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.PRECIP...A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION WILL TRIGGER A FEW HOURS OFSTEADY PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT COULDCOME DOWN AT A DECENT CLIP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE PEAK TIMESBETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON. IT PROBABLY WILL BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOWACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE FEEL THIS WAY AFTERLOOKING AT THE UKMET/GFS/ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURE AND SOUNDINGPROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM APPEARS TO SLOW WHICH IS ATYPICAL BIAS OF THE MODEL AND THINK PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVEBETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ACROSS WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. THIS MEANSTHAT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT THE TIME PRECIPITATIONMOVES IN...WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSSINTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ESPECIALLY IN THE NW INTERIOR REGIONS ANDTHE WORCESTER HILLS, WHERE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AN AMOUNTOR TWO EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS ALSO ACHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET MIXED IN ACROSS THEINTERIOR. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL NOT HOIST A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIALESPECIALLY IF IT APPEARS THAT MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL MIX IN FORA TIME AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WINTRY EVENT FOR THE SEASONIMPACTING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. AGAIN...WE DO THINK THATACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON ROADWAYS BECAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ATDAYBREAK ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING.
We will see what the weather brings tomorrow.
The warmth returns on Wednesday with highs in the mid 50's. Rain showers will likely develop in the nighttime hours. Right now there is a spread at how strong the Thanksgiving storm will be and its exact position, but all models are hinting at an Appalachian runner with southern New England in the warm sector, with highs in the mid 50's with showery rains, becoming heavier later in the afternoon. The GFS is the strongest with an actual strong storm developing along the front, while the NAM is just a front moving through our area. Either way, far reaches of northern New England may see some accumulating snow out of this as they will be removed from the warm sector much of the time.
That will move through and the New England area will cool off into chilly, but not exceptionally chilly conditions. Highs will be in the 40's on Friday through Sunday with moderating temperatures by Sunday. The next storm system will be a warm one coming up from the Southeast. The NAO will be soaring well into the positive range at this time, so we can assume the storm will remain far inland, sending warm moist air into the East.
The forecast of the NAO is for it to turn more negative by the first of December, so we could see a colder, stormier start of the first month of winter. We will see if that comes to be, as it seems like we are always 5-10 days away from that big storm or bigtime cold airmass, only to have the models change 3 -4 days before the event. It's a wait and see kind of forecast.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Thats it. North of Hartford to Providence to Plymouth, MA, there will not be anything. Not even a flurry. We will mark this up as DISAPPOINTMENT NUMBER ONE for the winter season of 2007-2008.
It will be cold on Monday, however. Highs will stay in the 30's. We warmup thereafter. Did anyone say 60 degrees for Thanksgiving?
The GFS brings the 0.25"-0.50" of liquid to southern Vermont and New Hampshire. This would be mainly snow, so you can imagine that someone or many would see a general 3-5" snowstorm out of this, with rain along the Cape and immediate coastline, Boston being right on the line between rain and snow. It paints QPF up to 1"+ in parts of Connecticutt, so we could see 4"+ there. However the NAM barely brings any rain/snow light showers onto the South Coast with most of the precipitation missing SNE by 100-200 miles. Most of the precipitation would fall over PA and NJ. New York City could see its first flakes.
You can see that the models are AWFUL this season. They cannot even come into some kind of agreement only 24-36 hours before the event. This is a shot in the dark forecast for any meteorologist. If they side with one, they could bust badly, and even if they go in the middle, like me, they could still bust badly. If you call for a the first flakes, even if its a few flurries and it doesn't happen...its a bust. If you call for a few flurries and you get 5" of snow...its a mega BUST.
Basically, this forecast has BUST all over it. I know I will have to change this forecast, but this map is what my first call is. The South Coast will see a mix of rain and snow, mainly rain. Up to .25-.50" of QPF. Further north, where it will be colder, a sloppy 1-2" of snow will fall, highest in the highest elevations in NW Rhode Island and northeastern Connecticutt. Southern Worcester county could see a whitening of the ground as well. Then north of the Pike, expect flurries all the way to southern New Hampshire.
Thats my call for now. If we see the NAM come further north, these snowfall amounts will come up. If they side more with the NAM, don't expect much tomorrow. Timing on all this is delayed now. Mainly late Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours of Sunday. A delay of about 24 hours.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Thereafter, we will warm up BIG TIME heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. High temperatures on Wednesday will get into the 50's once again and then we could have a really mild Thanksgiving Day with highs in the mid 60's, believe it or not! We will warm dramatically ahead of a cold front loaded with rainfall and ripples of low pressure along the front that will douse the area with heavy rains late Thanksgiving night and early Black Friday. Expect it to feel more like Christmas after Thanksgiving as the coldest shot of air we have seen in a while for November will move into the area for Thanksgiving weekend, later in the period.
Current projections show that the upper Plains, MN, ND, SD, MT, could see temperatures only manage 0's and 10's for highs the week after Thanksgiving weekend with subzero lows. That cold will move east.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Wintertime cold moves in after a front passes through on Saturday night and we will only see highs in the middle 30's on Sunday afternoon! The clipper system looks to continue heading to our south as even now the GFS has backed away from its once promising snowfall forecast from yesterday. That said, there may be a few snow flurries or sprinkle south of the Mass Pike early Sunday morning, but that would be about it. Nothing even remotely significant. A nonevent. Waking up Monday morning will be tough with widespread lows in the 10's in southern New England will lows in the single digits up North.
However, the NAO eases and heads back POSITIVE later next week and that will allow the warmth to move over the northeast once again, with temperatures getting back to 60 degrees by midweek and that would be Thanksgiving. Right now, I think the Thanksgiving holiday looks great with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 50's for the 10AM games. Its way out there, but at least there won't be weather on that day for the games, at least thats how it looks now. These models can flip on a moment's notice. So, stay tuned, as usual.
So get ready for the possibility of our first flakes tomorrow morning and get ready for a really chilly weekend.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
The snow will fly much of the day in northwestern Maine, where some mountain resorts could come in with close to 10" of snowfall, heavy wet snowfall at that. Then we all have a blustery cold Friday with highs in the low 40's. The weekend looks to be mostly dry with highs on either side of 40 degrees.
There is a small chance that we could see some snow with a clipper on Sunday, but most computer models are taking this clipper further south and the only model showing any snow for southern New England is the GFS and it has een awful as of late, so I am not going with its forecast, just yet.
Check in tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
More likely, parts of Maine will see more snowfall. Good for the ski areas, at least. I'll keep you updated.