Monday, December 31, 2007

New Year's Day Storm First Call

Good morning. We are finishing up one bust of a storm and heading right into the forecasting of the next one. No looking back, right? Well, it will be really really close whether or not Boston gets the record right now, as it just changed to snow in the city about twenty minutes ago, but with temperatures around 34 degrees. It will be close. Most areas have picked up between 2-3" in Worcester County, and may pick up another one to perhaps two inches before it quickly ends before 8AM from SW to NE. That is where a spot 4" or 5" amount is possible. Closer to the city's suburbs, 1-2" is more likely. The city may come just shy of getting that 1.1" for the record. Down on the South Shore and Cape, sorry, you guys got all rain and will finish the storm with all rain and I can't say it looks much better for the next storm. Now after this all wraps up later this morning, the sun will break out of the clouds later today and this will shoot up temperatures to between 38-45 degrees this afternoon, so there will be melting and this is another reason why I am not optimistic of tomorrow's event being all that white in Boston proper.

For tomorrow, I think that from Boston points S&E, there will be mostly rain out of this next one. There could be a slushy inch of snow for places close to Boston, say up to Brockton and Milton, however, that would be about it. Once you get past Boston and especially past Route 128, an accumulation of 1-4" is possible. More if there is less mixing with rain, less if there is. You have to get out towards the Worcester Hills and western MA, southern NH to get into any significant snow. I am pretty confident that a good 5-9" of snowfall is possible here. NW of here, that is where the bonanza with this next storm will likely be. Snowfall amounts of 7-14" are possible, but if one model is right, we would have to cut QPF in half and in turn cut all these snowfall accumulations in half, so that is why I am not at all confident of this approaching storm system, coupled with the fact that I just busted BIG TIME with today's storm. Sorry about that. Did not expect to wake up to rain pounding my window 2-3AM.

I will have more on this forecast later and show if there is any warnings or advisories issued by the NWS later today.

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