Thursday, February 28, 2008

'The Little Clipper that Could'

FIRST & FINAL CALL 2/28 @ 3PM: Here is my first call for the clipper that could. This clipper will come near the coastline and really get its act together upon hitting the above normal water temperatures. We will have a legit bomb go off once the storm starts to pass Boston Harbor and head into the GOM, where it will absolutely whallop Downeast ME with well over a foot of snow. Further down south we will still deal with a fairly significant snowstorm. For areas in southern CT, RI, and SE MA; some mixing will get into the snow and warm air will flood the midlevels where it will change snow over to rain, after a start to snow. Here is where I think a general 1-3" of snow will fall from this in the beginning of the storm before most of it will actually get washed away overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Further north you will get into a general swath of 3-6" of snowfall with a heavier band of 5-10" of snow that will encompass Worcester, Middlesex, and Essex counties. I would not at all be surprised to see of few lollies of 12" or more in this 5-10" band that extends into the Lakes and White Mountains of NH and into ME before you get to that area in DEM which could see closer to 12-18" of windwhipped snowfall that could qualify as a blizzard. You guys just can't catch a break up there. Tuesday night many areas saw 6-12" up here in NNE and then saw another 2-4" with yesterday's 'Norlun' event and now we are adding up to another 10-12" of snow on top of everything else. Amazing. Beware of snow on the roofs because we could get some heavy rains for all of New England early next week which will put a large strain on the roofs caked in snow.


WHEN: Starts from SW to NE. First in western New England around 7-9PM and quickly spread east into the BOS metro area anytime between 8-10PM. It will move into NNE later after midnight. It lasts until early to mid morning on Saturday in SNE, ending around noon as a few flurries in BOS metro and later in the afternoon in ME, but DEM could see snow linger past dark, with whipping and blowing snow as well up there.

WINDS: Winds will not be the big deal in SNE, but once that storm starts to get going in the GOM, winds will be breezy after the storm departs Saturday PM in SNE, but ME will see heavy snow and wind to create near blizzard conditions in DEM. Winds could gust over 40 mph here during the peak of the storm.

IMPACT ON TRAVEL: later Friday night should go downhill, but the evening commute should be fine with the snow starting after the commute in Boston, but may start in the latter part of the commute in Hartford. Late night driving and overnight and wee hours of Saturday morning will feature horrible driving condtions, barring the Cape where it will have changed to mostly rain.


In Massachusetts: Boston 5", Worcester 8", Acton 8", Springfield 5", Plymouth 3", Hyannis 2", Nantucket 1", Methuen 8", Lowell 7"

In Connecticut: Hartford 4", Tolland 6", Shelton 2"

In Rhode Island: Providence 3", Warwick 4", Newport 1"

In New Hampshire: Concord 7", Manchester 8", Nashua 7", North Conway 10", Laconia 9"

In Maine: Portland 8", Bangor 12", Augusta 12", Princeton 16", Caribou 10"

That is it for now...Watches should be going up at any time, probably north of the Pike later this afternoon. Something to watch for.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Snow on the Way...

More snow is on the way for SNE and all of New England to round off this week. First we have to get through today's scattered snow showers and flurries, which could amount to 1-3" in the mountains of VT, NH, and ME. Further south, just a few flurries will be spotted from town to town. This will usher in some mid wintertime type cold as tomorrow will stay in the 20's for highs. Morning temperatures will be around 10 above tomorrow and in the single digits on Friday morning ahead of a 'clipper' type system moves by our area later on Friday afternoon and evening, which will deposit a quick 1-4" across the area. The ocean may try to enhance the snowfall along the coast, east of Worcester and that may make snowfall accumulations more widespread in the 4-6" range, with 6" reserved for the North Shore and Merrimack Valley. Thats a long shot, but still possible. We will actually warm up on Saturday and heading into Sunday we really start to warm into the 40's before we get a very mild Monday with highs in the mid 50's ahead of a rainstorm that will cut to our west.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

More Snow?

Today's little snow event north of Boston was a little bit of a surprise. I wound up with one inch of slushy snow that fell with temperatures around 35 degrees. It has since switched to a cold rain, but up north is still on key to get a good whallopping. Places up north will likely all see a solid 8-16" snowfall. I think the jackpot may be the White Mountains, where over a foot of snow is probable on top of the several feet already on the ground. This storm will still be going on tomorrow morning up North, with wind whipped snow, gradually ending, as SNE breaks into sun by early morning with alright temperatures in the 30's to near 40. Temperatures tomorrow will stay steady, around 40 all day here in SNE, but will stay in the 20's and 30's up north with the gradual end to the snowfall. Then we all get really cold on Thursday and again on Friday, with high temperatures in SNE staying in the 20's and up north staying in the teens with a new snowcover, before the next storm system moves in on Friday afternoon.

Friday afternoon, we should see a light to moderate snow develop across all of SNE and New England for that matter, but the exact intensity and coverage is still in question. The big question is if this remains a mainly moisture starved system as the GFS depicts or grabs some GOM moisture and pulls it up into the storm. Either way, I think temperatures will become an issue for especially coastal SNE as we could have snow falling from the sky, but temperatures will be around 34 degrees with limited accumulation. The best accumulation will be over the higher terrain, but I am not going for more than a 2-4" event outside of Route 495, and an inch or two closer to Boston. Boston may in fact have a change to plain rain. It will not become a big deal. There will be no storm of the century as many have been hollering about. Other than tonight's big snow in the northern ski areas, this week will be uneventful.

After Friday night's snowfall and wintery mix, we will warm up on Saturday and even more so on Sunday and Monday as temperatures could be surpassing 50 degrees ahead of Tuesday's potential rainy storm. The pattern still looks like it could support snow and cold, just when is still the question.

Monday, February 25, 2008

FINAL CALL 2/25 @ 4PM: Here is the first and final call for the storm system that will affect the six state region tomorrow, starting in the morning as a mix of rain and snow in the pink area. Some places in Worcester County may pick up a quick inch or two of snow before switching to rainfall. Northern ORH Co. could see up to 1-3" with closer to 4-6" in western Mass. The Lakes Region and the White Mountains will fair quite well with a general swath of 5-10" of snowfall. The Northeast Kingdom will do the best with a general foot of snow with this storm system that will track from SW CT through BOS, so that is why SNE will be mainly wet this go around. Up to 10-14" of snow will fall in northern VT and NH. This storm will also be very deep, sub 985 mb, so winds will be rather gusty and that could lead to near blizzard conditions in northern New England, so just keep that in mind. It starts tomorrow afternoon and evening in NNE and continues through Wednesday with heavy snowfall and strong winds north of Concord, NH. Stay safe and enjoy the storm up North, while the southern ski resorts will lose their snowcover and great ski conditions.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

FINAL CALL: Friday's Havoc

FINAL CALL 2/21 @ 12PM: I am calling this one in. We have seen a dramatic northward push on the models, starting last night around 00z timeframe. The models have really started to push the best QPF numbers along the Mass Pike and even into southern NH now. Now I know if you saw the 12z NAM, you went wow! But we have to figure that that model is up to its usual games again and that last minute it will diminish QPF nearly in half. Still would yield a good sized snowstorm. Then the 12z GFS came in farther north and much 'wetter' than before with warning type snows all the way up into southern VT and NH. However, when you get that huge northward push, we have to figure in some mixing issues. Now the area I have outlined in pink is where I think there will be a quick burst of 1-3" of snow in a short amount of time before you go over to sleet. Nantucket will likely go over to plain rain. The new 12z GFS brings mixing issues with sleet all the way up to the MA/CT and RI borders and even up to Brockton. I think that will fall a bit southward later today, thats been the trend this winter, so it will probably only make it to a line of Hartford to Providence to Bridgewater, but even here a decent 3-6" of snow will accumulate before any switch over to sleet. If we don't get the switch to sleet in these areas, then I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear amounts nearing 10" in this area. Then you get to where it will be all snow. North of the three cities I mentioned is where there will be all snow from this one. QPF numbers have been bumped up a bit, so I think a widespread 5-10" of snowfall will fall in this area. For now, I'm thinking that many towns will come in between 5-7" in this area, but a few lollies of over that will be possible with up to 10" of accumulation. The Berkshires look to do best with this setup, closing in on one foot of snowfall. Even SNH will see up to a half foot of fluffy snow from this with advisory type snows all the way up to North Conway, NH; where they have about 30-40" on the ground with snowbanks over 10-15 feet high on the sides of the roads. Amazing. A few inches will be nothing for them.

So to break it down...Here is a timeline.

Snow begins in SW SNE around 8-10AM. Then it will quickly spread ENE and reach Worcester between 9-11AM. I would expect it to be in the Boston metropolitan area between 11-2PM, the latest. I would suggest leaving early tomorrow. We remember what happened a little over two months ago. We don't want to make it a repeat. However, this time around, I do not think it will come in like a wall with having flurries over to heavy snow under 1/4 mile visibility in 6 minutes. I think this snow will build up in intensity gradually and may take a couple hours to be widespread moderate to heavy.

The snow will get moderate to heavy in the Boston area by 3-5PM, just in time for rush hour traffic. So, I STRONGLY suggest that if you have to work tomorrow, that you take a half day. In fact I URGE you to do so. Leave the roads for the plow operators after the first flakes, please. Now, we will have that moderate, steady, occaisonally heavy snow last until about 10PM; then it will gradually get lighter and transition to snow showers. However, by daybreak on Saturday, we will have another little packet of snow move through the area that could deposit another 1-2" of fresh snow on top of the accumulated snow from Friday. That is why I am going for a widespread 5-10" ATTM.

Now for my infamous guesses for towns from town to town...

Boston 6"; Worcester 8"; Lenox 10"; Waltham 7"; Wilmington 8"; Attleboro 5"; Hyannis 2"

Providence 5"; Warwick 6"; Newport 2"

Hartford 5"; Tolland 6"; Bridgeport 3"

Nashua 7"; Manchester 6"; North Conway 4"; Keene 8"
That's my call for now. I would expect Watches to be posted between 2-4PM today. Watches will transition to warnings and advisories by tomorrow AM. Have a good afternoon.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

FIRST CALL: Friday Night Snow

FIRST CALL 2/20 @ 7PM: Here is the first call for the snowstorm on our doorstep. I have to stress that I reserve the right to change this map as I see fit through tomorrow. I really could see this go either way, with the heavy snow moving right into Boston or even having all the heavy snow stay off the South Coast and the Cape. Right now, I am playing it the middle of the road to slightly snow biased at this time. Yesterday the models were going crazy with widespread amounts of over one foot south of the Pike. Today they are much more tame and not giving anyone in SNE more than six inches of snow. However, one group of models, the SREF esemble means for the ETA/NAM computer model still brings moderate to heavy snow all the way up to central and northern New England, while the 18z GFS barely has the light snow making it up to Route 2 in Massachusetts for the event. Again, we have a very large spread. I am sticking with my gut and thinking that the models will come north again tonight and lead to this solution. If the 00z model suites come in lower and even more south, then I will lower this amounts. For now, I am keeping this as my first call. Heaviest snow, 6-9", will fall in CT, RI, and SE MA. Then you get to the Worcester and Boston metro areas along the Pike and you will run into 3-6". Once you get north of Route 2, I think amounts will diminish rapidly, only to 1-3" and then once you get into central New England, you will struggle to get a dusing to one inch. Still, this is the first call and it will likely change by midday tomorrow.

Snow starts Friday midday, for those keeping track and the heaviest would be late afternoon and early evening lasting until midnight before tapering sometime early Saturday morning, perhaps midday on the Cape. No mixing issues will be seen with this storm. It will be all snow everywhere, even on the Cape and Islands. Only thing that I could see is a heavier wetter snow down on the Cape and Islands that keep them to 6", while Plymouth, MA sees a drier snow getting closer to 8-9". Stay tuned for updates tomorrow as watches should start going up from the NWS in Taunton.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Springlike Warmth A Thing of the Past

We have multiple storm threats to get through during this vacation week. I wanted to first say how wild a day we had today in the SNE area. Morning torrential rains and then the sun broke out in the early afternoon, allowing temperatures to soar to between 58-63 degrees regionwide. Now tonight, temperatures are dropping and rain is switching over to moderate snow in the western part of Massachusetts this evening. Tomorrow you will wake up to temperatures in the 20's and 30's, allowing for one more quasi mild day with highs around or slightly over 40 degrees. No more snowcover in my backyard is another thing I wanted to mention this evening as well. The rain obliterated the snowcover in much of SNE this warm day, except for areas in Worcester County and extreme northern Massachusetts up by Methuen. Now we have multiple storm threats to look forward to.

STORM 1 (Clipper)

First look at this storm and it looks to mainly miss all of SNE, barring the south coast and Cape Cod on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. But recent runs have trended north somewhat, so we will have to watch it. Overall, I think it will be a central Mid Atlantic and northern Mid Atlantic snow event with a general 1-3" of snowfall. Some areas may squeeze out a spot 4" amount if this thing can really overperform, which has been the theme of the winter for Mid Atlantic clippers. (ie Dec 5th) We may be able to get that light snow shield to extreme SNE and may accumulate it to about an inch. That remains to be seen.
STORM 2...

All eyes shift south as we watch a developing coastal try to spawn off its parent low in the Ohio River Valley. The quicker the transfer, the quicker the cold air stays in place and this remains an all snow event from Hartford to Providence to Boston on north. The GFS really shows a nice moderate to heavy snowstorm for our area starting sometime on Friday and ending Saturday. It will have to be watched closely. I really do not want to get into too much detail with this storm just yet for the details really will not be ironed out until 12z Wednesday or even more likely not until 12z on Thursday the way this winter has turned every single winter storm threat into a nowcast type of storm system.

So, I just wanted to get that out there and let you all know that big things are in the works for our area later this vacation week, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts. It could be a big weather week of great extremes. We already have springlike warmth checked off the list.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Second and Final Call

FINAL CALL 2/12 @ 3PM: This is my final call for tonight and tomorrow's storm. Here I am showing you the snowfall, but this won't be the major issue with this storm. By 6AM tomorrow morning, everyone south of Manchester, NH will have mixed with and changed to heavy rain. We will see heavy rainfall on top of the snowfall accumulations to the right. For the snowfall, we will see it push into southern SNE around 6PM. Then it will push towards the Boston metro area around 9PM, before making it into CNE and NNE. Generally, in CT and RI, and southeastern MA, we will see a quick 1-3" of snow before we change this over around midnight tonight from south to north. Where it stays snow longer, north of the Pike, we will see a quick hiting 2-5" of snowfall, before a changeover around 2-4AM. Further north, we will see longer snowfall, with the changeover line making it to North Conway! by noontime. Here is where I think 4-7" of snowfall will fall before a lot of IP and then plain rain. Where it stays all now, we will have a good 6-10" of snowfall in the the Burlington, VT area.

The snow will come in like a wall later tonight and visibilities will fall to between 1/4 to 1/2 mile. Snowfall rates will be on the order of 1"/hr. So you get 6 hours of snow, expect snowfall to be around 5-6". Its a tough call, but by tomorrow morning, the rain will be falling hard in western New England and then pushing east. Where there is snow covering storm drains, there will certainly be street and poor drainage flooding in all of SNE. Rainfall on the order of 1-3" will be likely after the snowfall. It will be a horrible day tomorrow, a day where schools will have a tough decision whether or not to close. I would say that if snowfall adds up over 4" tonight in any given town and the changeover occurs after 3-4AM, schools will have to close because before the change to rain there will be a brief period of glaze and sleet on top of the snow. It will be a very slow morning. Best bet is a delay, but even that will be tough. Best bet is that north of the Pike should see many closings and south of the Pike will see 1-2 hour delays. That is what I would do, but I am no superintendent.

That's all for now. Next storm chance comes later this weekend.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Another Week, Another Storm

FIRST CALL 2/11 @ 3PM: Okay, we have another storm to deal with this week. This storm has northern New England's name written all over it. Still, it could get SNE pretty good as well, with a moderate dump of snow and then a heavy dose of ice. Snow should develop across the entire region tomorrow between 3-6PM. It will quickly become heavy and will start accumulating. By midnight, enough warm air will be moving in to change SNE snow over to sleet. Thereafter, inside 495, we will turn to a cold rain with temperatures in the 33-37 degree range. Outside of 495 and north of the Mass Pike is where we could have some problems with sleet and then a glazing of freezing rain that could exceed 1/4" on top of the snow that falls on the front end of the storm. I see a changeover to sleet and ZR all the way to the Berkshires, southern VT, and most of southern NH. The plain rain line will likely make it to about Worcester and then stop. Nashua, NH could stay below freezing, while Dracut, MA goes over to a plain rain. Where the snow transitions over the quickest is where we will have a light 1-3" snowfall. This includes the cities of Hartford, Providence, Plymouth and up to Boston and the North Shore. Then once you get outside I-95, amount will build up to 3-6". This includes the cities of Springfield, Worcester, Fitchburg, Nashua, Manchester, and Lawrence. Here is where I think the best chance of seeing significant icing will develop. Right now it looks to go from a 4-6 hour of all snow to a few hours of sleet and eventually freezing rain. If its 31, we are accumulating ice on all surfaces, but if that temperature gets to 32.1F, then we are talking a plain rain. It will be that close. Thats why I outlined the area in pink that has the best chance of seeing some icing conditions. North of here, into northern New England is where the best of the snow will fall. Here there will be no mixing problems as you will see all snow in the mountains and a lot of it at that. Right now, I am going conservative, with a general 6-12" across the North Country, but many spots will be approaching if not surpassing 12" of snow with this one, if the current data is correct.

School closings/delays Wednesday AM? I would say that if you live in northern New England, you should already pencil in a day home with the kids. However, as you come south, it gets more and more difficult. I would say you have a good chance outside of Route 495, and especially north of the Mass Pike. Then you get into a possible chance inside of there and north of the Pike. South of the Pike and east of 495, it seems definite that school will be in session. This is still a fluid situation, but things seem to be coming into place for this one now. Forecast only gets more definite as time goes on.

Friday, February 08, 2008

More Snow?

FIRST CALL 2/8 @ 3PM: Good afternoon and we have another batch of snow/mix coming back to our area. I have been watching this threat for a while and it looks like snow will move into our area tomorrow afternoon and will be mostly wet snow and even some rain down on the South Shore. Temperatures will be in the mid and upper 30's. However, tomorrow night temperatures will go down and allow for some accumulating snowfall. This will allow for a 1-2" snowfall south of the Pike to around Boston. I would expect Boston to get around 1", while more snow will accumulate north and west of Route 128, where 2-4" will fall. I expect some spots in ORH Co. to pick up scattered 5" amounts. This will extend into Vermont. The heaviest of the snow will be confined to coastal NH and ME where 4-8" of snow will fall. Most will see between 4-6", but some further areas will get close to 8" of snow. Its seems like it just wants to keep snowing today with another 1/4" to 1/2" today with today's peristent light snows. This should come to an end later this afternoon and allow for some drying and melting tomorrow before we add on to it. This is it for now. Up north, its been snowing on and off since about Tuesday morning and some spots have seen weekly snowfall close to 30-40" so far! Some ski resorts will pick up close to 10" of snow tomorrow, so you can bet that the skiing will be absolutely AMAZING. Even in VT, some places saw between 12-20" of snow with yesterday's snowstorm alone. Its amazing up north with regular snow depths away from the resorts in everyone's yards around 25-45". Simply amazing. More coming with more possible next week.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

First Call: Rain to Snow Wed. Night to Thu AM

FIRST CALL 2/5 @ 1PM: We have ourselves the making of a very interesting forecast. Almost certainly this will turn into a nowcast type of event where you will have to watch your temperature tomorrow as it drops to see if you will get any worthy snows. Right now, this is my best guess as to where the best snow will fall. Right now it looks like the heaviest snow axis will fall somewhere in Central New England, but this is LP is traveling along a wavy front and where this front sets up shop is where the LP will follow. A more southerly track and more snow for SNE. Right now I am thinking that the LP will travel right along the South Coast of SNE. This will allow enough warm air to come up and keep SNE mostly rain tomorrow night, but even here I think a quick couple of inches of snow will be possible. Right now I am going with the most snow accumulation in SNE occuring north of the Mass Pike, even for the city of Boston where I think an inch or two will fall. An inch or two of glop, just enough to mess up the morning drive. N&W of Route 128 and 495 is where I think more snow will fall, especially over higher elevated areas, where 2-4" of snow is possible. This includes the northern suburbs of Worcester and even up into interior Essex County. Then once you get to about Manchester, NH on north, is where it will be snowing the longest and where you will pick up the jackpot. Easily a quick 4-8" of snowfall is possible here. Once you get north of North Conway is when amounts will start to come down, but even there a few to several inches of snow is possible, after today's surprise 5-8" snowfall in the pre dawn hours.

A WARNING is that this is a very tentative situation and this is a very wavy front and a few miles could make all the difference between a couple inches or nothing to seeing close to a half foot. This heavy band of snow could still move 50 miles further north or south. Its that close. That could bring the heaviest of snow into Boston metro or move it so far away that we only see a few flurries mixed in. So, check back with your favorite weather site. Its going to be a changing forecast. This is my best guess now. Check back in tomorrow and if you are able to GO OUT AND VOTE TODAY!

Sunday, February 03, 2008

Unsettled Few Days...

Monday through Wednesday will be unsettled to say the least coming up for SNE. Tomorrow will start off dry and then we may have to deal with some mixed winter precipitation as WAA moves into the area. The best chance of seeing some light snow and mix tomorrow night will be in western Mass and CT. Here is where I think a quick inch or two of snow will fall before it gets washed away later this week. Tuesday will have the warm front go through the area and we will start to warm with showery type rains and warm temperatures, into the low 50's. SW New England may see temperatures come up to near 60 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Then we all warm up on Wednesday with heavy showers and summer-like thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening, after reaching record highs in the low 60's! Believe it or not! Those showers and thunderstorms will send us back to winter's reality on Thursday with temperatures back in the mid 30's. Then all eyes will turn towards the south as we watch a clipper type storm come out of the Great Lakes, moisture starved and try to redevelop off the Mid Atlantic coast. Some models are hinting at explosive development off the coast, while others are less aggressive and barely have a few showers moving up into SNE. Needless to say, this thing is going to need to be watched closely. We have the United States used model, the GFS, saying little if any storm. Then we have probably the best model of the winter season saying HUGE storm for much of SNE. Thats got me on the fence because this progressive pattern with no real blocking or negative NAO would favor a GFS outcome, no storm, but since the EURO has been so good this winter season, I can't throw it out.

Its a wait and see type of situation and we will have a better grip on the situation by tomorrow night and especially midday runs on Wednesday. Then we can start to peg the ultimate track, intensity and if any accumulation maps should be warranted. Until then, enjoy your Super Bowl Sunday and GO PATS!!!

Saturday, February 02, 2008

Record Highs by Wednesday

Our break from winter will continue into next week, as we have another Lakes Cutter in our future, coming up for midweek, hopefully allowing our Super Tuesday to be dry for going out to the polls and parade? First of all, tomorrow will be a "super" day no matter what with mostly sunny skies and temperatures mild to around 40 degrees. Monday will be another nice day with temperatures, cooler, into the upper 30's. This one day stint of colder air will not last long as winds shift to a more SW component and temperatures will soar to the low 50's on Tuesday and we may be seeing near record highs on Wednesday with highs in the upper 50's and the chance of rain showers ahead of a cold front, that will send us back into reality come the end of this upcoming week. Storm threats still look minimal at this point snow-wise, so we will wait and see on that. It will turn colder, so our chances will go up.

FYI, the record high for Wednesday is only 56 degrees for Boston and I am forecasting a high of 57 degrees, hopefully if the rain holds off, we will be able to make that no problem. In fact if we saw any sun on Wednesday, highs would easily head up into the mid and upper 60's. The airmass will be that warm here for midweek and that would be nice. However, a return to winter will be on our doorstep as we bask in the record warmth.

More later.