Monday, February 11, 2008

Another Week, Another Storm

FIRST CALL 2/11 @ 3PM: Okay, we have another storm to deal with this week. This storm has northern New England's name written all over it. Still, it could get SNE pretty good as well, with a moderate dump of snow and then a heavy dose of ice. Snow should develop across the entire region tomorrow between 3-6PM. It will quickly become heavy and will start accumulating. By midnight, enough warm air will be moving in to change SNE snow over to sleet. Thereafter, inside 495, we will turn to a cold rain with temperatures in the 33-37 degree range. Outside of 495 and north of the Mass Pike is where we could have some problems with sleet and then a glazing of freezing rain that could exceed 1/4" on top of the snow that falls on the front end of the storm. I see a changeover to sleet and ZR all the way to the Berkshires, southern VT, and most of southern NH. The plain rain line will likely make it to about Worcester and then stop. Nashua, NH could stay below freezing, while Dracut, MA goes over to a plain rain. Where the snow transitions over the quickest is where we will have a light 1-3" snowfall. This includes the cities of Hartford, Providence, Plymouth and up to Boston and the North Shore. Then once you get outside I-95, amount will build up to 3-6". This includes the cities of Springfield, Worcester, Fitchburg, Nashua, Manchester, and Lawrence. Here is where I think the best chance of seeing significant icing will develop. Right now it looks to go from a 4-6 hour of all snow to a few hours of sleet and eventually freezing rain. If its 31, we are accumulating ice on all surfaces, but if that temperature gets to 32.1F, then we are talking a plain rain. It will be that close. Thats why I outlined the area in pink that has the best chance of seeing some icing conditions. North of here, into northern New England is where the best of the snow will fall. Here there will be no mixing problems as you will see all snow in the mountains and a lot of it at that. Right now, I am going conservative, with a general 6-12" across the North Country, but many spots will be approaching if not surpassing 12" of snow with this one, if the current data is correct.

School closings/delays Wednesday AM? I would say that if you live in northern New England, you should already pencil in a day home with the kids. However, as you come south, it gets more and more difficult. I would say you have a good chance outside of Route 495, and especially north of the Mass Pike. Then you get into a possible chance inside of there and north of the Pike. South of the Pike and east of 495, it seems definite that school will be in session. This is still a fluid situation, but things seem to be coming into place for this one now. Forecast only gets more definite as time goes on.

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