Monday, August 18, 2008

Fall Chill to Summer Heat!

MONDAY- Good morning. Its a warm Monday here in southern New England. As of the noon hour, many areas from the Cape to metrowest are coming up into the lower to middle 80's on our way to highs in the upper 80's to maybe knicking 90 degrees in a few towns. A front will be coming through tomorrow with the slight chance of a shower or storm before noon north of the Mass Pike with a greater chance of showers and storms between 11AM and 3PM on the South Shore and South Coast and Cape. This will help to keep our temperatures down into the 70's with partly cloudy skies with Canadian air north of the Pike to mostly cloudy skies south of the Pike and especially the further east you go. This front will deliver some fresh Canadian air for Wednesday and we will see deep blue skies with very low humidity and temperatures only getting into the low to mid 70's despite nearly 100 percent sunshine. It will be a crisp fall-like airmass over us. That leads us to a very chilly night tomorrow night and Wednesday morning. We could have lows drop into the mid 40's in suburbia for Wednesday morning with areas south of the Pike staying in the 50's to around 60 in Boston and on the Cape. But places like Norwood, MA and Bedford, MA may bottom out between 42-44 degrees as they usually radiate like crazy on a clear calm night. We have one more cold morning on Thursday but the afternoon will be warm with temperatures getting back into the low 80's even with morning temperatures falling down into the 40's once again in suburbia, but again, Worcester, Boston and the Cape with likely stay in the 57-62 degree range overnight. Then it is off to the races with very warm conditions coming in to end the week with temperatures nearing 90 once we get to Friday and Saturday with abundant sunshine. The heat will return. Unfortunately its when everyone is starting to go back to work and school. Figures.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Tropical Storm Faye is Born

TROPICAL UPDATE- Well, we officially have tropical storm Faye out in the Atlantic. She is a weak TS with max winds of 40 mph sustained with gusts up to 50 mph. She is moving W at 13 mph and is currently interacting with Hispanola which will not allow this system to really intensify much as it heads towards Florida. The computer models this morning showed a GA/SC hit to NYC to eastern New England, but this afternoon, many have shifted much further west, possibly heading into the Gulf of Mexico. It may even interact with the mountains of Cuba which could totally wreak havoc on this system and destroy it totally into nothing more than a disorganized area of thunderstorms and showers with some wind. I have outlined the most likely track for Tropical Storm Faye as of right now. I have moved it west, much further west than originally forecasted yesterday. Here is an update from the NHC.

...Tropical Storm Fay forms...sixth Atlantic storm of the season... Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the Mona Passage became a tropical storm as it moved into the eastern Dominican Republic.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic for the entire north coast of the Dominican Republic and for the South Coast east of San Pedro de macoris. A Tropical Storm Warning is
also in effect for the north coast of Haiti from gonaives northward. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Granma.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 18.5 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 35 miles... 55 km...east of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 395 miles...635 km...east-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A general motion toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track...the center of Fay will cross Hispaniola tonight and Saturday...and pass near or over eastern
Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher gusts...mainly over water to the north and east of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 kmfrom the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Tides of 1 to 2 feet feet above normal can be expected in the warning area in areas of onshore flow. Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba...with isolated maximu amounts of 12 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...18.5 N...69.4 W. Movement toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Invest-92 Posing US Threat?

TROPICAL UPDATE- I thought I'd update the situation on Invest-92 this afternoon. Right now it is really starting to get its act together north of the Windward Islands and is quickly gathering steam as it heads in a WNW motion at this time. We could have a tropical depression by 5PM and a tropical storm soon thereafter. I have outlined the area in red where this storm is possibly going to track over. As you can see it will be heading generally in a NW motion north of Hispanola and Cuba. It will be going over the Bahamas as a strong Tropical Storm or even Category 1 Hurricane. Then it will come very close to South Florida before heading due north it looks like by the computer models. It looks to be off the SE coast sometime early next week and then head N and eventually NNE and NE heading away from the mainland United States. It looks to recurve out into the open Atlantic Ocean. This is still a developing situation and one that will have to be checked back with in the coming days if you live anywhere from the Keys to Maine at this point in time. The greatest chance of a direct impact from this not yet named storm would be from the central coast of Florida to the Carolinas. I would say at this point there is a low probability of SNE seeing anymore than just indirect effects from this tropical system. More on this developing weather situation later on. Watch out for the thunderstorms and downpours today and more rain tomorrow. Another washout?!

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Summer to Return

WEDNESDAY- I am here to say that summer will be returning to SNE. Today, Wednesday is a beautiful day with temperatures getting up to around 80 under mostly sunny skies. But we have more rain and thundershowers to get through tomorrow and Friday. Some of this rain will be locally heavy tomorrow afternoon (mainly after 2PM) which could cause some street flooding in some areas. Interesting to note is that 30 day rainfall totals north of the Pike for the past thirty days have been anywhere from 8-15". More rain tomorrow and Friday before summer really returns on Saturday and beyond. No more cool and cloudy weather for SNE at least for an extended period. Tomorrow and Friday will not be real cool, just slightly below normal with highs in the upper 70's on both days. Lows have been falling into the upper 50's in suburbia the past couple of nights and I think that will continue the next couple of mornings. A crisp feel when you wake up in the morning and head out to work or get ready for the beach. Then Saturday a few showers will be exiting off of the Cape with mostly sunny skies developing NW of here with highs getting back to seasonable levels, low 80's. Sunday through Tuesday we will stay dry and continue to turn the thermostat up as we go along. We are talking low 80's Saturday, mid 80's Sunday, and near 90 on Monday. We can go ahead and call that hot. The pattern looks to change for a warmer and drier regime as we head toward this weekend and beyond, right in time for school to start.

The tropics are heating up now as well with two areas of disturbed weather formally classified as Invest 92 and Invest 93. We could have TDs by the end of today. Other than mentioning them, I won't go into too much detail because they may not even form today.

Saturday, August 09, 2008

Lots of (MORE) Rain

SATURDAY- I'm here to tell you that more and more rain is on the way to SNE. We aren't talking light rain, but gully washers here. After a nice dry Saturday with temperatures in the 70's we are going to have heavy to strong storms move through our area tomorrow afternoon and evening that will consolidate into one shield of heavy rain for early Monday before more scattered heavy showers on Monday afternoon. These storms will be hit and miss and the rainfall will vary widely from town to town, but many areas are fair game for at least one inch of water. Parts of western Massachusetts by Springfield and Amherst have already seen between 4-8" of rainfall in the past five days and more looks likely. I am going for a SNE regionwide totals of 1-3" by the time its all said and done. Some spots will get more and others not so much. Right now it looks like western SNE will get the most (again) with widespread amounts of 2" or more. Flooding will become another possibility here in SNE.

That all clears out by Monday and we actually get a Tuesday that is similar to today, partly cloudy and warm with temperatures in the 70's. The only reason we won't make it into the 80's is because the ground is so wet. That is why we woke up to so many clouds here in SNE this Saturday morning. Tuesday could be similar. Then we go back for more showers and storms come Wednesday that will linger right through the end of next week unfortunately. That's all for now, check back later.

The tropics are eriely quiet.

Friday, August 08, 2008

Dry Saturday, More Storms/Flooding Early Next Week

FRIDAY- Good afternoon everyone. We are actually seeing some sunshine around this noon hour today here in SNE. Don't get used to it because this midday sunshine will only increase the instability of the atmosphere as another spindle of energy rotates through the area later this afternoon with more showers and heavy thunderstorms. Some spots yesterday in western New England saw possible funnel clouds, golf ball sized hail, and heavy flooding rains. Some spots in the West saw between 2-5" of rainfall with yesterday's storms. Here in eastern New England, SNE, we were spared with the heavy rains and strong thunder as the marine influence helped to negate the instability. Today we will not be so lucky. The sun is out and the temperatures arer rising into the mid to upper 70's as of this noon hour. Expect showers and thunderstorms to spindle through our area by about 2PM in WNE and continue eastward around 5PM. A few pop up storms could develop in any given area at any given time today, so be on the lookout.

The storms should taper tonight and lead to a clear overnight with cool temperatures dropping into the 50's in the suburbs. A few spots will drop into the mid 50's, including Bedford and Norwood. Saturday will be a generally dry day with warm temperatures. Any showers will be confined to northern New England and even there will not be a great chance. Sunday the storms will arrive again, as a strong line of storms moves through our area and then stall off our shores on Monday as the front gets held up with a low pressure spinning off it and we get a stormy near washout day on Monday with cool temperatures. If we stay in the clouds and NE breeze, high temperatures will be in the mid 60's, but for now I'm going optimisticly lower 70's. We'll see. That gets us a dry Tuesday before more showers midweek. That's the pattern we are in and it looks to stay entrenched.

Thursday, August 07, 2008

We Can't Break this Pattern

THURSDAY- We have been in this pattern for nearly two months now. Lots of showers and storms each and every afternoon and it looks like this pattern will be sticking with us for at least the next few days. We could get a break early next week only to go right back into a showery and cool pattern once again. Today and tomorrow will be the coolest of the next bunch with highs today getting up to the lower 70's away from the coast, to upper 60's to around 70 degrees right on the coast. Rain showers, some heavy, will move into our area later this afternoon and continue overnight through tomorrow morning as well. Tomorrow we will have some morning showers and thunderstorms exiting off the eastern shores of SNE and by midday we will be stuck in that bright overcast and damp feeling kind of day with very cool temperatures. Tomorrow will be stuck in the mid to upper 60's along the coast to near 70 inland. Western New England could see the sun by late afternoon with highs responding into the 70's to perhaps near 80 degrees, west of the CT River Valley. All and all, we are looking at a half inch to inch of rain with this storm system, or next spindle of rain for overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning.

The weekend will feature more of the same with showers and thunderstorms a threat each afternoon, but they will become fewer and farther between as we move along through the weekend. We could actually have a total dry day around here by Sunday with more sun than we usually see this summer and temperatures getting up to near of slightly over 80 degrees regionwide. If we can't do it Sunday, we can have a better chance at it on Monday and again on Tuesday. I think both days will be mostly dry and sunny with very warm temperatures getting back to slightly above normal once again. The normal high for this date is right in the lower 80's.

After Tropical Storm Edouard's landfall north of Houston earlier this week, there is not much else to talk about in the tropics at this time. Signs are that it could get pretty active in the August 15-25 time period, but we will have to wait and see about that.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Showers and Storms Rule

WEDNESDAY- It's been a very cool day this Wednesday afternoon in early August. Sorry for the long delay in posts since late July. I've been away down the Cape for the past week and got great weather down there while areas around Boston have been in the showers and clouds for most of the past week and have been dealing with cool temperatures. Today's highs will likely stay in the mid 60's along the coast and may approach 70 degrees in metrowest. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today as well through the evening hours. A line of strong storms will come through Boston's immediate suburbs from the NW out of NH later this afternoon between 4-6PM and these storms will provide strong winds and heavy rain.

Tomorrow's forecast is more of the same with showers and thunderstorms and more cool weather with temperatures in the low 70's. Friday is another wet day before we start to dry out by Saturday and Sunday which leads us to a nice and dry Monday with warm temperatures into the 80's once again before the shower threat arrives once again on Tuesday.