First New England Hurricane in 18 Years...Danny is Born!

Danny is born! May we be talking about our first New England hit in over 18 years since the landfalling on Hurricane Bob in 1991? I think this is our best shot in a long while. We have been watching the progression of the ULL near the Bahamas waiting for it to get its act together since about Sunday and Monday and finally, at 10AM today, the NHC upgraded this area of convection to a Tropical Storm by the name of Danny with sustained winds around its exposed center around 45 mph. The above shows the preliminary track for Danny as we head into the weekend. As you can see, it is a big threat for the east coast, especially the Northeast and New England coasts. The NHC's track would bring 'Danny' up over SE Mass/Cape as a minimal hurricane, a hurricane rocketing to the NNE probably near 30-40 mph, if not more. Once it gets into the more northern lattitudes, 'Danny' will quickly start to lose its tropical characteristics and become a hybrid storm over Maine. However, it will still slam areas with hurricane force winds from Portland, ME to Augusta. Depending on the track...Boston could be very close to the 'eye' wall in the worst case scenario and see very damaging winds in the city itself (glass skyscrapers). We will have to monitor this situation very closely and really see if 'Danny' can get his act together in the next 24 hours because all the potential is there and the pattern is shaping up for a real New England special. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. This could be one we are talking about for years to come!

Warmer Times Ahead

EASTER SUNDAY - Happy Easter everyone! Hope you are all having a good holiday. I thought I'd do a quick post since I had a spare moment. Well, it looks like the Winter of 2008 - 2009 is finally over after today's wet flakes in eastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island with a little potent coastal storm this afternoon. I think that will be our last flakes for a while here in SNE. Now we are all about getting these temperatures up and greening the grass and blooming the trees. It does not look like tomorrow will feel like a real mid-April day with highs only in the low 40s in SNE regionwide. There will also be a gusty NNW wind as well which will make temperatures feel like they are in the 30s all day. It will feel downright cold tomorrow for all the holiday festivities. Thereafter, we warm up through the 50s on Monday and then into the low 60s by midweek and through late week. We will have to watch a storm system scooting down to our south through the Mid Atlantic late week and if that moves further north than what is currently projected, then you can forget about low to mid 60s for Thursday. Then we are talking around 50 with rain. A lot could change with the forecast that far out, so stay tuned, but I think that we are in store for some good weather soon. Just hold out another 10-14 days for the real warmth.

Get That Snowblower Out!

FINAL CALL: Get your engines ready folks. We have got ourselves an old fashioned daytime snowstorm on our way for all day tomorrow. The model output this evening is really bullish for significant snows east of ORH-FIT. Oddly, eastern MASS will do appreciably better than western MASS because the cold air is draining in on a NNE flow and it gets to eastern sections before western sections. That is why by noon tomorrow it should be snowing moderately to heavily in the city of Boston, while Albany, NY may be raining or having a wintry mix. You may not think that a snowstorm is on the way with temperatures this evening near 50F in Boston and in the 40s in the suburbs. However, that cold air will advect by the time this gets going here in eastern MASS by sunrise. I wouldn't be surprised if this started as a little rain in many locations, but it will quickly transition to all snow in many areas NE of Worcester and north of say, Brockton. This is when it could come down at a pretty good clip, perhaps 1"/hour snows for a while tomorrow afternoon.

Snowfall amounts will be greatest the further north and east you go. For the Boston metro area, I'd guess that anywhere between 4-7" will be the rule with a few spot 8" amounts in SE NH. Down over SE MA and the Cape, it is more of a 1-3"/spot 4" amount of snow if that inverted trough squeezes out a couple more inches than projected, which is a known bias of this type of setup. That is why I would not be surprised if some towns come closer to the higher end of my ranges, but for now, to be safe, I'd go with the lower end of the ranges for snowfall amounts. This is going to be a changeable situation and it will turn into a nowcast event to see where that rain/snow line sets up and how long it takes to come through a given area. Here is a rule I am going to use. If it is snowing in the city of Boston with a temperature of 33F or lower, then you can bet your paycheck that Boston will see 3"+ tomorrow. One computer model has Boston getting around 7" of snow tomorrow, with its nearby NW suburbs (Burlington-Newton-Melrose-Wilmington-Reading) getting up to 8-9" of snow. I do not think this will happen, but it is a possibility that higher amounts are realized in the greatest area of convergence in NE MASS, where the inverted trough snows could be quite intense as this system wraps up and moves its precipitation offshore.

School delays/cancellations? There will not be any need for delays. It will be a closed call or no call. I'm going to side with SCHOOL IS SESSION for most as many news outlets are forecasts light amounts, not ready to pull the trigger on a real significant snowstorm after a weekend of mid 60s Saturday and 60 on Sunday. But it's New England! Some schools will realize their mistake tomorrow afternoon in say the North Shore of MASS and southern NH, looking out their windows to visibility under a 1/2 mile in moderate to heavy wet snow and then go "Shoot!" Then we will start to see early dismissals. That's my call. Our next chance of snow comes Tuesday night/Wed. AM as a warm front moves through and then the rest of the week looks chilly with highs in the mid 30s into the weekend. Winter is not over yet!

It's a Fickle Month

Sorry for not posting in a while. I have been really busy the past couple of months, but thought it was prudent to post the snowfall map for Monday's potential snowfall around these parts after we had such a great day today with a high temperature in the mid 60's in my backyard, with near 70 degree temperatures down in Falmouth this afternoon before a few evening rain showers north of the Pike dropping temperatures into the mid 40s which is where I think we will stay overnight. This will be a good launching pad for tomorrow with the little sun/brightening we see with highs getting back into the mid to upper 50s in SNE before a backdoor cold front will move in from NE to SW during the day, which will drop temperatures into the low 40s along the NE coast by later in the afternoon.

This all sets the stage for another packet of moisture to move into our area tomorrow night and Monday morning with sleet changing to snow north of the Pike on Monday and this snow could come down at a pretty good clip for a time during the late morning hours of Monday morning, especially in southern NH and eastern MA. For this reason, I have outlined an area where I believe 2-5" of snow will fall, despite our nearly early May high temperatures this afternoon. Once you get further into NNE, amounts will drop off and further SW the cold air will be less deep in the atmosphere, so you will likely be rain for a while before even changing to a sleety mix. You too, however, should change to a couple hours of wet snow later on Monday as well which could allow for an inch or two of accumulation even in CT and southern RI to the Cape. We will have to watch the models and satellites tomorrow, but for now this looks like a light event, but enough to be a shock to the system after people were out in shorts and t-shirts this afternoon. That is why they call March the most fickle month of the year for weather in SNE. It can be 70 one day and the next day it can snow. This month is no exception.

Sunday's Clipper

FINAL CALL (1/17/09 @ 2PM): Here is the final call for tomorrow's snowfall. We have a clipper coming out of the GL today and this will spread snow into New England between 3-7AM west to east tomorrow morning. Warm air is going to get involved BOS S&E as rain/mix will be the predominant precip type on the Cape where only a C-1" will fall before the changeover and temps max in the mid-upper 30s. Boston is good for 1-3" before marine influenced air infultrates the area, but only 5-10 miles NW of BOS should stay mostly snow and that is where a good 3-6" of snow will accumulate. Maine will get the storm in the GOM as it blows up and spits out the heaviest QPF in that area. This will lead to a good 6-9" from this clipper before we turn our eyes to a developing coastal near the Del Marva. Recent information now takes this storm further out to sea, but it is so close that we should keep an eye on it. At the very least, some rain and snow showers will be on the Cape with the second storm. But for now, it looks like a near hit, but not close enough for anything significant.

Dusk 'til Dawn Winter Storm

FINAL CALL (1/10/09 @ 8AM) Overnight the models shifted north with this storm and it now looks like the heaviest of snow will be north of the Mass Pike. I narrowed the bands of snow as well, instead of going with a regionwide 5-10" of snow, I have southern ME to southern NH and parts of northern MA in the band of heaviest snow with accumulations of 7-10". This now looks to be a widespread 4-8" of snowfall from Plymouth, MA to northern New England. South of Boston the snow will be denser and somewhat heavier as mixing could get as far north as BOS-ORH-HFD. North of here, we should stay all snow, but we have to be weary of this coming a bit further north. The Cape and Islands may even change to plain rain for a time during the peak of the storm. This will limit accumulations here to a lighter 2-5" of gloppy snowfall. Still starts from west to east 5PM to 8PM. Ends tomorrow morning and early afternoon around 10AM-1PM. Thats all for now. Enjoy.

FIRST CALL (1/9/09 @ 1PM) Winter storm watches are already up for all of SNE this afternoon. I am tending to agree with the NWS call for a widespread 5-10" of snow across most of SNE. The only wild card is the Cape and the Islands. This is where some mixing with rain could occur, at the very least the lowest ratio snows would be confined to with temperatures in the 31-34 degree range, while areas north to around BOS would see temperatures overnight Saturday in the upper 10s to low 20s, which would provide for light fluffy snowfall. Ratios will likely be in the 12 or 15:1 range here. The snow growth does look fair, but not the type of snow growth we saw with the NYE storm where we had a good deal of easily accumulable dendrites falling from the sky. The winter storm watch will likely be converted to a winter storm warning by late tonight if not by tomorrow morning for all of SNE and maybe even southern NH. I like my 5-10" call, but I have to add that areas along the CT/MA and RI/MA border to the Mass Pike would be the areas that would see the most snowfall from this storm. Right now I have them for a good 8-10", but there is the small possibility we get really good ratios and a tad bit more QPF and then I wouldn't be surprised if someone came in with a foot of snow from this one. Closer to BOS, I think Logan will likely pick up between 7-9", maybe more if we get this CCB band to really get cranking over eastern MA.

TIMING? This looks to be roughly a dusk 'til dawn type of snowstorm with most of the snow falling overnight Saturday. It should be a fun enjoyable storm. The snow will be light and fluffy and easy to move around Sunday morning as it tapers off from west to east. The sun will go to work on Sunday afternoon and black tops should be visible again by later Sunday and cleanup by local cities and towns should be coming to an end and then you will be able to enjoy the snowscape. It should arrive in western SNE between 3-5PM and quickly become moderate to heavy at times. Further east, I expect it to arrive last in the BOS metro area between 5-8PM. Snowfall rates should get up to 1"/hr during the peak of the storm, so travel overnight Saturday is going to be tough to say the least. I advise that if you can have a nice night in, just do it. Lots of motorists had a bad night this past WED with all the glazed over roads in the BOS metro area, I know I did and we don't need more claims to go to our insurance companies. So that's it for now.

One last note is that true ARCTIC air is coming for next week and by next THU and FRI, we could be talking about temperatures that struggle to make 15 degrees on THU and then stay in the single numbers on FRI. Get ready! It's coming. Overnight temperatures below zero for a lot of SNE next week? You betcha!

Messy Wednesday

Wednesday is going to be one of those days where forecasts will likely bust horribly. Right now this is what I'm thinking. We all will start as a brief period of snow snow early Wednesday morning (3-5AM) and it will gradually transition over to a wintery mix south of the Pike. A quick 1-3" is possible areas south of the Pike, including the city of Boston before the switch to sleet and then freezing rain, rain Boston. The area outlined in red slash marks for northern CT, RI, interior SEMA, southern ORH Co. to the Springfield area are all in line to see healthy amounts of ZR after the switch from snow. This is the area where Ice Storm Warnings may need to be issued and where a 1/2" or more of ice accretion is possible. This will be enough to do some damage to trees and power lines, so we will need to be aware of isolated to scattered power outages in this area. The good news is that the latest information is lessening our ZR threat and it looks like it could be more of a sleet issue, which would be a saving grace. NW of 128 and north of the Pike, the changeover will take longer, so 2-5" of snow is forecasted before a switch to sleet. North of Concord, NH to Keene will be areas that receive mostly if not all snow out of this one. Areas that do stay all snow will likely pick up a healthy 6"+ of accumulation. The ski resorts will welcome this with open arms with the last couple bigger storms being primarily SNE storms. Thereafter, we look to go into the ice box later this week and for the foreseeable future. Be sure to shovel this wet snow Wednesday because if you don't it will be cemented to your driveway for a few weeks at least.

Winter Storm Wednesday?

Wednesday's forecast is looking very difficult to really pinpoint at this time. There will be a storm coming out of the OH Valley and moving towards BUF, deepening along the way, but it will not be able to just shoot up the St. Lawrence River Valley because of our blocking to the north. This will allow a secondary to pop out somewhere between LI and SEMA. This transfer of energy will likely keep the flow near the surface from the NNE, thus keeping surface temperatures near or slightly below 32F for the duration of the event, especially north of the Mass Pike and W of 495. However, midlevels will not stay cold enough for all snow in these regions and infact warm to levels where the snowflakes will switch to rain drops. If we can keep the surface layer of cold deep enough, then we would be looking at lots of sleet, but I think it is going to be a shallow pool of cold air in these places hit hard by the DEC 11th Icestorm, thus giving more freezing rain and ice to areas that do not need it. It looks like a quick inch or two south of the Pike before a switch to sleet then rain. But north of the Pike looks good for 2-4" of snow then sleet and then a half inch of ice NW of 495. It could spell trouble. I'll have a map tomorrow.