Friday, March 23, 2007

UPDATED: Upgrading Snow Totals for SNE

UPDATED 9AM INFORMATION: Waking up this morning, I went to the NAM and GFS and both of them are looking more juicy for our area tonight. Also, snow advisories have been posted for southern and northern Worcester County and to the west and north. Southern Vermont is under a Heavy Snow Warning for accumulations of 5-10" above 1000'. The new NAM is quite bullish, painting much of SNE, mainly MA, in the .5" to .8" range. Taken verbatim, 5-8" is on the way for everyone, but since its almost April, it won't work out like that. Still, my new map is un upgrade for most areas. Have your camera ready for tomorrow morning. Everything is going to be caked with a few inches of snow and it will look amazing.

If anymore advisories or warnings get posted, I will update then, if not, this is my final call, barring some crazy turnaround with the computer models 18 hours out.
Friday, March 23rd Information Below....
Are you kidding me? A mini snowstorm is on the way and coming to our area tomorrow night. After seeing the past two days near 60 degrees, we will be cooling down bigtime tomorrow with highs in the 40's. A storm will ripple along the stalled front that goes along our area tonight and brings in cold air from the NE with a high pressure system filtering the cold air into our area to support the snow.

Timing: Snow arrives tomorrow night between 7PM to 10PM from west to east. It may start as a rain/snow mix in extreme southern New England and the Cape, but it will quickly transition to an all snow event for even these areas. Snow becomes moderate to perhaps heavy by midnight with snowfall rates approaching a 1/2" to 1" per hour. Visibilities may come under a quarter of a mile with the quarter sized flakes falling with temperatures around 32 at the surface, but just above us, temperatures in the clouds will be some 20 to 30 degrees colder.

Snow comes to an end early Sunday morning from NW to SE between 5AM and 9AM.

ACCUMULATIONS: Look to be light to moderate. Light snow accumulations will be for all of SNE with a general 1-4" snowfall, mainly 1-2", but a few "lucky" spots may see 3-4". The area in the brightest pink will see the moderate snow accumulations with snowfall accumulating between 3-5" widespread and a few high elevations in the Berkshires and southern Vermont, may see up to 6" of gloppy snowfall. This is where the plows may have to come out as they may get a couple inches of snow to accumulate on the streets, while areas that see under 4" will likely just need sand trucks to clear the roads because pavement temperatures are very warm now due to the warm March sun angle and the past few days being so warm.

Thats all for this mini surprise snow event. It will all be a distant memory by Monday when highs are back in the 50's and then 60's later. I want to WARN you that we may not be done with winter weather after next week's warmup. I am afraid to say that this may be another "tease" of spring as all signs are now indicating that the AO and NAO are going to absolutely tank by next weekend, which basically means we will be going into a DEEP FREEZE for early April standards. This means that highs will likely be in the upper 30's in the hills to mid 40's on the coast and if any storm comes around, it will be able to tap into the extreme cold just a few hundred feet in the air to deliver some late season snow. This is something we have been watching for a while and it could be coming to fruition to screw up our spring plans.

Thats spring in New England...what else is new?

Extended Forecast

All the snow in my backyard is gone. Highs today got to around 60 and yesterday was the same thing with unlimited sunshine. What a beautiful spring day. A front is pushing through our area today and tomorrow will be much cooler with highs in the mid to upper 40's with NE-E winds. The water temperature is 37 degrees right now. It will be a cool raw day and then snow moves in tomorrow night for all of SNE and CNE. A general 1-4" is expected, but we warm up early next week for Tuesday as highs will be pushing 70.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Monday Night Snow Then Spring Arrives for Good?

I told you that winter would have a few more tricks up its sleeve. Temperatures are struggling to get out of the upper 20's today and highs will probably only make it to 32. More cold is in store for the next few days.

More snow is likely tomorrow night with a dusting to one inch likely.

That clears out and then we warm up to end off the week.

Saturday, March 17, 2007

More Snow?

Is more snow on the way for early this week? Maybe. After picking up tons of snow and ice yesterday, this is probably the last thing you want to hear. Many areas picked up between 8-14" from Boston north and west, with 4-8" south of the city and 2-4" on the Cape. Worcester was the big winner raking in over a foot and a half, 18"!

There is a chance of a little light rain/snow Monday night that may accumulate up to one inch, but that would be about it. Later in the week, it will warm up and all this snow will be a distant memory. By late week, temperatures will be back in the 60's. We are almost there.

Spring starts Tuesday.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

An Old Fashioned Winter Storm

A potent winter storm is coming to wreck your end of the week fun. Waking up tomorrow, you will notice 1-2" of new snow in SNE as the rain showers of tonight transition to snow overnight. Then the main storm comes in as all snow for SNE. Even the Cape will start with a brief period of heavy snow that will quickly accumulate up to two inches that will be washed away by 3-5" of rain overnight Friday into Saturday.

The Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for all of SNE, except the Cape, for 6"+ of snow. I am sticking with the totals I have here on this map.

The snow will change to sleet and then to rain from SE to NW. The rain/snow line may make it up to Manchester tomorrow night an eastern SNE, could see 2-3" of pure rain after seeing the snowfall totals above. That said, we are also under a Flood Watch for poor drainage and urban street flooding Friday night.

This is going to be a messy storm. Best bet is to go skiing up north as many areas up there will be dealing with 12-24"+ of snow out of this one. The problem is that you might get snowed in up there. This will be a wet pasty snow that sticks to everything and causes many power outages, especially in areas that receive more than six inches of snow.

Stay tuned for the latest.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Part One Accumulations: Snowfall Accumulations by 9AM Friday

These snowfall accumulations are for snowfall on the ground by 9AM Friday morning. It is not taking into account the snow that will fall seperately with the Nor'easter that rides up the coast and arrives by mid afternoon on Friday. That snow looks like it will be amazingly close between an all snow event and a heavy snow to rain/mix event in SNE.

There is so much to talk about, so I will just go through a timeline...

Tomorrow Morning: Very mild...around 50...rain showers widespread.

Tomorrow 4PM: Rain continues...becoming heavier...temps falling rapidly

Tomorrow 11PM: Temps continue to fall. Rain is quickly changing to all snow in CNE and approaching southern VT and NH.

Fri 4AM: Rain has changed to ALL SNOW from Plymouth, MA northward.

Fri 9AM: Snow tapering leaving the amounts posted...a lull in the action develops for a few hours before ROUND 2 that will deliver more heavy snow.


Winter Storm Watch has been Issued for Much of SNE at 4PM Today

As the headline says, a WINTER STORM WATCH has been posted for much of SNE this afternoon, except far southern New England and the Cape/Islands. The WSW is in effect for 6"+ of snow for the entire watch area, which includes the cities of Hartford, Providence, Worcester, Fitchburgh, Plymouth, Boston, Lawrence, Nashua, Manchester, and Springfield.

Tomorrow will be a rainy day with the snow threat later tomorrow night and especially during the morning drive on Friday. There is still lots to iron out with this storm so I won't give any specifics today...go outside and enjoy the weather. Thats where I am heading. Its 72 degrees out there right now.

Storm details tomorrow night.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Shorts Tomorrow, Shovels By St. Patty's Day?

Tomorrow is going to be an amazingly warm day in SNE. Highs away from the coast and away from the South Coast, Cape and Islands will be pushing the mid 70's tomorrow afternoon with a gusty SW wind. With the right amount of sun, areas just west of the shore, by about 5-7 miles will see highs well into the 70's. If you live on either of the Capes and South Coast, you will not see highs in the 70's. Highs for you will be in the 50's due to the water temperatures in the middle to upper 30's at the current time. Boston and the eastern facing coasts will likely get to the mid 60's by the noon to one o'clock hour, but may see a flip to a sea breeze later in the afternoon if the winds slacken just a bit. Temperatures would fall back into the mid 50's. Either way, it is going to be a fantastic day for outdoor activities and the first practices outdoors for the first time this spring season.

Rain, thunderstorms, and wind will be moving in tomorrow night with locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs Thursday will still be quite mild with highs balmy in the 60's with humid conditions. Rain will generally taper during the day as a front goes through the area Thursday night that will usher in a much colder Friday with scattered showers and drizzle throughout the area, making for a very raw New England spring day. It will continue to get progressively colder Friday night as a storm is developing off the Mid Atlantic coast and the next question is how close will the storm make it to the SNE coast? I think it will get up here with rain and snow, but what will the temperature be at the ground level when it is precipitating. That will be a big question and why I am not totally buying into this storm as a major winter storm threat for SNE at this time. However, it bears watching and areas in Central and Northern New England will likely see a moderate to heavy snow out of this after tomorrow night's flooding rains. Spring skiing will continue due to this storm.

Stay tuned to this storm threat, but promise me you all do one thing. Get outside tomorrow, go for a run, play catch, play a little one on one, or just sit outside and soak in the warm sun because it is going to be a top 10 day of the year. Enjoy.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

A Return to Winter is Inevitable Next Week

I have really pulled back temperatures for this week from a few days ago. It does not look like we will get into the 60's or 70's anymore. Mid and upper 50's to near 60 is still possible, but the weather will get progressively worse each day this week. First today will be a partly cloudy sky with highs in the lower 50's and tomorrow will feature the same sky with temperatures slightly warmer into he mid to perhaps upper 50's away from the shore and where there is still a decent snowpack, where temperatures will be in the upper 40's to around 50.

Wednesday's forecast temperature is quite variable at this time. A couple computer models have a front going through our area already and this would yield temperatures falling into the 40's and 30's during the day after an early morning high of around 50. Another has gusty SSW winds blowing through SNE which would mean we would be in the 60's. So, I took the middle ground and went for mid 50's for the high, and rain will be moving in during the day, highest probability the later you get in the day. This rain may actually mix with and change to wet snow during the overnight hours Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Little or no accumulation would be expected.

A lull is forecasted most of the day Thursday with spotty showers of rain south, wet snow north. More precipitation may come into SNE with a secondary system spawning along the stationary polar front that passed through the area on Wednesday. This may yield a band of some moderate to perhaps heavy precipitation into SNE with temperatures borderline as to whether it would be rain or snow. As always, the further north you are, the better chance of seeing some snow. This would continue into Friday and would clear out before the St. Patrick's Day festivities on Saturday. The St. Patty's Day Parade in Boston and others in SNE will be mighty cold with temperatures in the 20's with a biting wind. If we get snow late week, the sidewalks in Southie will have to be cleared for the spectators. So if you're going to the parade, you may need to bring a shovel to get that good spot on the route.

This storm, no matter what it delivers in the form of snow, will usher in a more cold and progressively stormy pattern for the eastern third of the lower 48. Anywhere from north of Richmond, VA to the Canadian border is fair game for snow and cold. More on this as we get closer, but I knew that 27 forecasted high for St. Patty's Day would stick out like a sore thumb, and if you're not careful at the parades, you will get frostbite on your thumbs.

Enjoy the spring warmth now and prepare for the cold and snow coming up later next week...I know I will be.

Friday, March 09, 2007

Warm Air will be Nice, but a Tease...

Our recent cold snap is coming to an end. Tomorrow will mark the beginning of a warmup that will be quick and tease us that spring has sprung only to have the other shoe drop later next week. More on that early next week. For now, I am pressed for time, so just take the forecast for what its worth and I will talk to you all later. That Wednesday temperature is no typo either. That would be a 72. By next Friday, we will be back in the 30's.

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Spring is on the Way

Spring is most certainly on its way, slowly but surely. I see springlike temperatures sneeking their way back into the forecast as well. Tomorrow morning will be the last frigid morning in a while with lows generally ranging from -5 to 5 above. We just went through our last frigid afternoon, as tomorrow afternoon will reach into the lower 30's with limited or no wind, which will make it feel a whole lot warmer than it actually is. Saturday we get much warmer with highs getting into the lower 50's. We keep moving on up on Sunday with highs getting back into the mid to upper 50's with a chance of a few showers in the area, but it will not be a heavy or sustained rain at all. It will be showery type of rains with generally less than a tenth to a quarter of an inch.

A backdoor cold front will try to sneek through eastern SNE on Monday which will mean temperatures will just stay in the upper 40's in eastern New England, but just inland temperatures will manage the middle to upper 50's once again. Tuesday western New England goes to 60 and eastern New England gets into the middle 50's. I want to tell you that by next Tuesday, it will feel really nice with highs getting into the middle to upper 60's regionwide with a WSW wind that will slope down the mountains and warmup reaching the coast, where the warmest temperatures will be found. Wednesday will be the last day of real warmth with highs that may soar into the lower 70's in SNE! A few areas may bounce all the way up to near 75?!

Thereafter, we may go back into a colder pattern? That is a question that remains to be seen, but until then, lets just stick with the relatively short term, before we go out on a limb on the GFS down the road by about 7 to 10 days.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

The End is in Sight...

Are you getting tired of this frigid air that just won't give up. There is nothing worse than Arctic air wasted. Temperatures in the single digits and teens with unlimited sunshine are quite a rarity in March in any part of the lower 48. We had that yesterday and today warmed a little but tomorrow we go back into the freezer. Highs tomorrow will struggle to reach 20, and winds will pick up at night with a few snow showers or snow squalls that could cause some limited visibility with briefly moderate to heavy snow and wind. A coating to half inch is not out of the question. That will usher in extremely cold air with lows getting below zero for Friday morning in many areas. Boston and urban areas may stay at about 5 for a low. Just outside of the city, -2 to -4 is not out of the question and in northern Worcester county, lows may dip to near -10 in the most sheltered valleys. We warm up remarkably in the afternoon with highs getting all the way to 30. In some places, a temperature rise of 40 degrees is not out of the question.

From then on, its onto spring we go. Saturday will feel great with highs approaching 50 in many locals. Sunday and Monday we warm up still with highs in the mid 50's. We may see a shower or two Sunday afternoon, but that would be just about it. We continue to warm up for Monday and there are signs now that we could be into the 60's for Monday. Many places could be seeing highs topping out into the middle 60's! We haven't seen this since early January. Warmer for Wednesday with highs budging 70 degrees from Boston to Providence and maybe lower 70's in Hartford down to New York City. Washington DC and Baltimore may be talking about temperatures nudging 80 after getting about 2-4" of snow today with a potent little clipper. Some parts of MD, received more than 10" of snow today with this clipper system. What a storm. In one week from now, we may want to start thinking about what to plant in the garden this year and seeing all the flowers popping out of the ground and possibly some trees starting to pop leaves with the warm March sun angle. Highs in the 70's in March with the sun will do much more than highs in the 70's in January for the flowers and trees.

Are we just going to forget about winter now and just fall head first into spring without looking back? I am not sure. My gut feeling is that I would be surprised if we didn't get at least one more cold shot after this initial warmup next week. Mother Nature, I am sure has lots of tricks up her sleeve for us after giving such an easy and uneventful winter. We may be digging out in April or we may be in line for one of the busiest and most scary hurricane seasons of the past decades with La Nina coming on strong!

I am not going to get so far ahead of myself I start eating my own words, so I will leave it at that and stick with the six day forecast. Just two more days of wintertime cold and then spring, warmth, baseball, no winter jackets, golf, mowing the lawn, HERE WE COME!!!

Monday, March 05, 2007

Arctic Express Makes its Presence Known

The coldest day of the season could be on tap for tomorrow with many areas not getting out of the "tweens." The bigger cities may make a run at 15 to 18 degrees tomorrow afternoon, but that will be about it. Lows in the morning will be in the lower single digits. We rebound a tad for Wednesday with highs in the lower 20's regionwide, but the tradeoff will be a little snowfall, especially along the south coast of CT and RI and the Cape and Islands may see a little fluffy snowfall. Right now it looks as if most of the precipitation with this system will pass to the south of us and deliever areas from the Great Lakes to Pittsburg to Philadelphia and Baltimore to the Jersey Shore a chance at snow advisory type snows, on the tune of 3-5". A few places in south central PA may actually pick up 6-7" of fluff. The south coast of SNE and Cape may see a D-3". Nantucket could pick up close to 4", but that remains to be seen. One more day using the computer models and then it will be a nowcast type of event.

That clipper will deliver in another arctic blast with temperatures back in the teens for Thursday after morning lows probably in the single digits below zero in most rural areas. In the north, acutal low temperatures could be in the -15 to -25 degree range with wind chills closer to -30 to -40 degrees! Is this March? Yes it is and it will be marked by wild swings. We are warming past the freezing mark by Friday and we are pushing 50 by Sunday with rain showers back in the forecast.

Long range, it looks like next week will generally be a mild one with highs in the 40's and 50's, but there is a sign on at least a couple of computer models that by the end of next week we could be back into a colder regime with stormy weather still entrenched. Something to watch, so just throwing it out there that even though we will warm up this weekend into next week after getting blasted by the arctic air tomorrow through Thursday and Friday, winter is not over until the fat lady sings and old man winter has to have a few more tricks up his sleeve for we can't just end on such a boring and uneventful note, snow-wise, this season. We did last year, sort of, as last March was miserable for snow and rain for that matter, but on April 5th we were all surprised with our little 2-4" snowstorm that interrupted all sorts of baseball and softball practices alike.

More on the forecast and the little Wednesday snow event for the extreme southern part of SNE tomorrow.

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Quiet Weather Ahead...But Wild Temperature Swings Ahead

I hope you enjoyed the near 60 degree readings yesterday. Tomorrow that will become a thing of the past. It won't be all that cold with highs in the mid to upper 30's but an Arctic cold front that has been advertised for a while will be moving through the area tomorrow night, during the evening rush with a big burst of wind and flurries and possibly some scattered briefly heavy snow squalls that could deposit a quick dusting to one inch of snowfall. Tuesday will be mighty cold with highs struggling to reach 20 degrees in Boston and highs will struggle to get out of the teens in Boston's suburbs. Lows will drop into the single digits. This cold shot will last into Thursday and Friday and we will get out of the freezer by Saturday with highs approaching 50 degrees once again with scattered rain showers possible.

Saturday, March 03, 2007

Friday, March 02, 2007

Spring Preview Saturday

First of all I want to say that the 'winter storm' that just went through was nothing more than a huge waste of time on everybody's part. What a bust. I just had a sneeking suspision yesterday that this thing would turn into a total bust and it did. Where I live, we got an hour of moderate snow that quickly turned to sleet and then by 4AM the temperature was already above freezing and it was raining and raining quite heavily, causing lots of yard and street flooding as the ground is still frozen. Areas up north did see some snow, especially north of Concord, NH. These areas generally saw a quick 5-8" of snow with a few areas that saw local amounts to 10" or a little bit more. Anyway, lets get that behind us and look forward to a spring preview for tomorrow.

Highs tomorrow will reach into the lower to mid 50's across SNE, warmest just away from the coast, where there may actually be a sea breeze to knock down temperatures into the mid 40's tomorrow afternoon. This would be for Boston, the Cape and North Shore. Otherwise, it will be spectacular. Some showers will move in tomorrow night with the passage of a cool front that will knock down temperatures for Sunday.

Sunday's highs will be about 10 to 15 degrees below what they were on Sunday. Many areas will top out at around 40 degrees. Monday will be a transitional day with temperatures in the middle 30's ahead of a very powerful March Arctic front, that will usher in some finger numbing cold for Tuesday. Ahead of the arctic cold front, there may be some snow squalls and snow showers that break out and may dump some brief, but locally heavy snow in some areas, mainly north into VT, NH and northern MA. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a quick 1-2" of accumulation in this area with this frontal passage.

This will usher in frigid air for a one day stand. Tuesday's highs will not make it out of the teens in many areas north and temperatures will likely stay in the 20's in SNE with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures rebound to the freezing mark Wednesday and we warm up from there. Highs should be approaching 40 by late week. No snowstorms in sight.

Thats all for now, stay dry, you only have to wait less than 24 hours for some real spring weather!

Thursday, March 01, 2007

10PM UPDATE...Major Downgrading

Its 10PM and the newest model information is coming in and it does not look good at all. All the models have pushed the rain/snow line way far north into southern New Hampshire and Vermont with this go around for the majority of the storm. I had tried to post an updated map for the accumulation, but there were errors. Instead I will just tell it to you.

Right now I am going for all rain in CT, RI, and most of MA, except for very close to the MA/NH state border. This rain will total 1-3" in SNE, which will likely cause flooding where the ground is still frozen and snow covered, like my backyard with still a 4-6" snowcover.

Further north into southern New Hampshire and Vermont, snow accumulations of 1-4" of possible, with the most the more elevation you have and the further north you are. North of Concord, there will likely be 4-8" with 8"+ in the White Mountains and into Maine. It looks to be a great storm for ski country and Saturday will be a great day to go skiing up North. Down South, not so good. Many areas will lose most of their snowpack tomorrow and with temperatures 50 to 55 on Saturday, all the snowpack will vanish in SNE.

Thats all for now, expect your 10PM and 11PM newscasts starting to downgrade and push their snowfall amounts to the north. The NWS should follow suit soon and by tomorrow morning, I would not be surprised if the Winter Weather Advisory is canceled in SNE and the Winter Storm Warning is discontinued in southern New Hampshire. We will see, but that is just my amateur opinion.

Final Call on March Winter Storm

Here is my final call for the storm. I pushed the mainly rain line much closer into the city of Boston. I am keeping much of SNE in the 1-3" range, with up to 3-6" in northern Worcester county. All of this snow will generally accumulate by daybreak Friday which may cause some delayed openings for schools north of the Mass Turnpike. Closer to the state border and especially in Worcester County, there may be a few closings with numerous school closings likely in southern NH and VT.

You can read my reasoning on lowering snowfall accumulations from yesterday's post in the comment section of the last post. Generally, I think this will be a storm that will raise hopes, only to dash them as many media outlets may be forecasting up to 6" near Boston, which just will not happen. Sorry snowlovers.
Quick City by City Forecast
Boston: 1"
Woburn: 2"
Worcester: 3"
Fitchburg: 4.5"
Lowell: 3.5
Methuen: 3"
Nashua: 5"
Manchester: 6"
Concord: 7"
North Conway: 18"
Portland: 7"
Bangor: 10"
Sunday River: 20"
That is all for now, I wish I had better news for SNE snowlovers, but I just don't. Some good news is that an arctic blast is forecasted to slam the region by early next week with highs in the lower 20's. Chances of snow? Possible. We will have to wait and see.