Sunday, September 30, 2007

Welcoming in October to Indian Summer

I am back posting after a week off, been busy with work. Well we are right back where we left off. Dry weather and above normal temperatures. Tuesday and Wednesday was amazing with highs in the low to mid 90's and dewpoints around 70. I was questioning whether our climate had changed. But early this morning we were reminded that it can get cool. Norwood was in the upper 30's and they may be a few degrees cooler overnight tonight. Tomorrow will be another cool day, but right on target for average with a high in the upper 60's. Then the jet stream heads back up north into southern Canada sending all storms and rain up into Canada and pumps the heat back into SNE. Wednesday, the first day of the playoffs at Fenway should be nice and mild as the Red Sox take on the Angels in the ALDS. It may be a little cloudy as the true warm air starts to head back into SNE for the weekend. We are talking 80's by late week and into next weekend, once again. Its a broken record. So what can we expect during the month of October. Here is the October Preview.

Boston and its Suburbs Averages_____________________________________

Boston...........October 1st 67/51

Boston...........October 31st 57/42

Boston's highest temperature for the month of October is 90 degrees, set on October 12, 1954. The lowest temperature recorded is 25 degrees, set on multiple occaisions. Average rainfall is 3.79". Boston usually will see its first non-accumulating snow by late month.

Boston's Nearby Suburbs..........October 1st 67/44

Boston's Nearby Suburbs..........October 31st 57/35

I will use Bedford, MA for reference. Bedford's highest temperature for the month of October is 89 degrees, set on October 7, 1963. The lowest temperature ever recorded in the month was 16 degrees, set on Halloween 1966. The average rainfall is 4.37" with nearby suburbs seeing their first light accumulating snow towards the end of the month about once every 3-4 years. ______________________________________________________________

How will it be this October? Early indications are that it will be an above average month, temperature wise, with early departures likely making it a positive month. We have an equal chance of seeing normal rainfall, but I would bet it will stay mostly dry. East of the Rockies, temperatures will be very much above normal, generally a good +1 to +3 departure. In the upper Midwest, +4 dept. cannot be ruled out. The West Coast will be much Below normal with above normal precipitation. Temperatures out there will be a good -1 to -3 degrees below normal. Early season snow will fall in the mountains, building up their snowpack steadily towards the end of the month, likely. No Halloween skiing anywhere in the East. Its going to stay warm here this month.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Record Heat Tomorrow

Record heat is in the forecast for tomorrow. The record high for Boston tomorrow is 89 degrees. I believe that Boston will either tie it or break it by 1-2 degrees. I am going for a general SNE high of 91 degrees tomorrow. It will be cooler on the Cape and Islands with temperatures in the 70's, with the strong SW wind of 20-30 mph. Don't expect things to cool down on Wednesday. If anything it will be hotter by a few degrees, but Boston will not reach a record high because the record for the 26th is 95 degrees. I think Boston will come in around 92 or 93 degrees for the high, still very high for the date. Is this unprecedented heat? No. Our latest 90 degree temperature was on October 12th, so we can still have 90 degree temperature, climatalogically, for the next 2-3 weeks. I think this will be our last blast from summer this season though.

Rain moves in Thursday afternoon and night and becomes steady, moving in from the Mid Atlantic and New York City. It should be a soaking rain, likely a 0.5" to 0.75" event, wrapping up early Friday morning, setting for a cooler Friday and especially Saturday, but the high of 68 on Saturday will be right on par with the average high for the date. We warm right back up for Sunday, back in the mid 70's. Its looking like the jet stream will pretty much stay in the pattern of giving SNE warm air. All the cool air will stay in the intermountain West as parts of Montana have seen plenty of snow the past few days.

More on the record heat tomorrow!

Sunday, September 23, 2007

Are You Kidding Me!?

My headline portrays my feelings towards this forecast. Its ridiculous. We are fast approaching October and we are dealing with weather like this. Don't get me wrong, I am not complaining, but, come on, its not supposed to be sunny and in the 90's during the last week of September here in southern New England. Tomorrow will be the last day of dry heat and then we will get very humid to oppressive humidity by Tuesday and Wednesday with highs getting up into the lower to mid 90's regionwide. We could be easily breaking records around here on Tuesday, as the record high for that date in Boston is a meager 89 degrees, I believe. Boston will likely break that by 1-3 degrees, shattering the old record. I am not sure what the record is for Wednesday, but with highs in the mid 90's, we'd be close to a record high in mid July, let alone late September. Showers move into the picture for an unsettled second half of the week, but they do not look as potent as they did a few days ago, and do not look to cool us dramatically, into the low 60's as I thought before. Once they clear, we warm up again heading into next weekend with highs in the mid 70's.

One thing to note is the Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning low temperatures. Mid 60's for a region average on Tuesday and then 70 on Wednesday morning. A few days last week, Boston didn't even get out of the low 60's for a high! Boston overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday morning will probably "bottom out" around 72 degrees! It will surely feel like summer has returned to the city. Maybe then, the Red Sox will start playing ball like they did during the dog days. Thats not too much to ask, IMO.

More tomorrow.

Saturday, September 22, 2007

Summer Makes a Return in a Big Way

Happy 4th of July everybody, ope, my bad, its late afternoon on September 22nd and its around 80 at 5PM. I thought it was July for a second. The summer beat continues at least for a little while. I can't tell if this will be the last hurrah for summer, but each time we have one of these hurrah's I think that it will be the last one, but looking down about seven days, we always see the heat building again. Tomorrow, the first day of fall will feel anything but fall. Highs overall will be around 80 inland and mid 70's along the shore. Another beach day in my opinion. We step it up a bit for Monday with highs around 80-85. Then look at the forecast for Tuesday. Can you believe your eyes, lower 90's. It won't last long, just a one day stand. Cooler air comes in with a stalling cold front on Wednesday before we return to seasonable weather for later in the week. Upper 60's look cool, but that will actually be right at average for Friday of next week!

Enjoy the last day of summer.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Summery Stretch Continues

Our summery weather will continue for at least a little while longer. Considering that it is nearly October, stringing together 5-7 consecutive days of mostly sunny days with highs around 80 is simply astounding. Tomorrow brings much of the same. Highs tomorrow will be ever so slightly cooler, mainly in the upper 70's. Then as I have been saying over and over, Saturday really warms, getting into the middle 80's. It looked like Sunday would cool, but now it looks like the first day of autumn will still feel like July. Highs for SNE will average around 82 degrees. That is the normal high for Boston for July 20th! Not the first day of fall. Monday will be 85 degrees for a southern New England average, a temperature that is above the the warmest day of the year's average temperature, 83 degrees in late July-early August. Tuesday is still warm and then we deal with a staggering front that will start to really cool us into Wednesday with increasing clouds and the threat of showers later in the day. We may be talking 80's to begin the week, and then 60's to round it off. Its the time of extremes.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Forecast More Like July than Late September

This forecast looks more like that out of a week out of July. Temperatures will stay well above normal by 10-15 degrees through the period with the cooler days, Friday and Sunday, still much above normal. Tomorrow is day one of the return of the summer weather. Highs should be getting into the lower 80's, under abundant sunshine. A dry front will move through parts of SNE on Thursday night and introduce a cooler airmass, ever so slightly, into SNE, dropping temperatures from the low and middle 80's to around 80 inland, 70's at the shore. The warm air surges right back with a warm front going through the area and temperatures will respond nicely, middle 80's widespread throughout the southern part of the six state region. Another cold front, dry, moves through on Sunday, the first official day of autumn, "cooling" us down into the mid 70's.

The heat surges right back early next week and we will be into the 80's on Monday and Tuesday with an extended period of warmth, to downright hot weather. The jet stream is surging into southern Canada and as long as the jet stream stays in a trough in the West and huge ridge here in the East, storms will continue to track through the Northern Plains, up through the Great Lakes and into southern Quebec, dragging mostly dry, weak cold fronts down to our area. Temperatures looks to stay well above average through next week. October is showing signs that it could be an very warm month as well. We will see how this all affects the winter forecasts.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Can Somebody Say Drought?

There is no weather coming our way for the foreseeable future. Not even the chance of rain the next 6-8 days. The next chance of seeing any type of rain looks to come by Wednesday of next week. The only story that will be making headlines will be the temperatures. From one extreme to another. Today, the cold spot in SNE was Norwood, of course, as they got to a frosty low of 30 degrees this morning. Not far behind was the normally second cold spot, Bedford, coming in with a low of 33 degrees. Highs today stayed generally in the 60's, with the exception of Taunton, coming in with an afternoon high of 70 degrees, after a morning low of 36 degrees. Tomorrow temperatures as a whole will be a few degrees warmer in the morning and the afternoon. Norwood and Bedford will likely drop to between 34-37 degrees, while the rest hover around 40. Boston will likely be around 50, after a morning low of 48 this morning. The heat moves in on Thursday on a SW wind. Highs will likely be in the low to mid 80's, with low humidity. A cold front will move through the area from west to east Thursday night and let in a cooler, but still nice airmass for Friday, with temperatures slightly above normal, mainly in the mid 70's. The heat is right back on for Saturday as highs will be soaring well into the mid to perhaps upper 80's in a few spots. Overnight lows will likely stay around 60 in the suburbs to mid and upper 60's in urban areas. That will really feel like summer all over again on the last official day of summer.

We welcome in fall at 5:51AM on Sunday morning with a cooler airmass, with morning lows in the 40's in the suburbs and 50's, Boston. The cooler airmass stays until Monday and then I think we are off to the races again as temperatures soar back into the 80's. Enjoy this perfect stretch of weather. It can't last forever.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Frost Widespread Tonight

Sleeping with the windows open last night was quite the mistake. Lows got very cold last night in southern New England and many parts of western and northern New England dropped down to frosty levels early this morning, which will really accelerate the fall foliage season, really early this season. We have two more very cold to frosty mornings ahead before we really start to heat up once again. First today, temperatures will top out between 60-65 degrees with abundant sunshine, maybe a few afternoon clouds. Once late afternoon comes, temperatures will really start to tumble, down into the mid 50's for the Red Sox in Boston tonight, and low 50's for the fans at Gillette. Temperatures by the end of the Sox game will likely be around 50, but the end of the Pats game will really feel like fall, in the mid and upper 40's. Temperatures will really fall at Gillette because Foxboro is a notorious place to cool quickly.

One more cool day like that on Tuesday and then we are off to the races for warmth latern next week. Wednesday will be a bit milder with temperatures around 70, after morning lows in the low 40's. We warm up more significantly on Thursday with high temperatures in the low to mid 80's. The warm temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs each day in the 75-85 degree range, coolest at the shore, warmest inland.

Here is a map for tonight's frost and freeze potential. As you can see, places around the Boston-Providence-Worcester area does not really have to worry about tonight for frost and freezes. However, a notorious place for frost around here will be the airport at Norwood and any cranberry bogs and Carver, MA is a notorious cold spot.

Much further west is where you will run into widespread frost and freezes. Western CT, MA and much of Vermont, and southern New Hampshire will experience temperatures in the low to mid 30's. South-central Vermont will even experience Freezing conditions with temperatures likely in the 28-32 degree range for several hours at a time. That is where there is a *Freeze Warning at the current time. The areas in the darker blue are under a *Frost Advisory. Tuesday morning we will do this all over again and perhaps closer to home, we'll see.
Enjoy the nice stretch we are getting.

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Frosty Suburbs Monday Morning

I hope your garden got a good drink of water this morning because that will be the last of the rain we will see for quite a long time. Second of all, the growing season, for a few, will come to an end come Monday morning. I will outline the areas that could experience frosty temperatures, around 32 degrees, tomorrow afternoon with a map perhaps. Tonight the frost will be confined to western Massachusetts and southwestern New Hampshire. Northern New England is fair game as well, but many areas up there have already been below 32 this season. Tomorrow will be a chilly day with highs in the low 60's. Then Monday morning is when parts of southern New England may go below or around 32 degrees for a time that could put an end to our growing season. If your garden survives the early week frost, it will love the forecast later because temperatures will get back into the 70's by midweek and maybe approaching 80 by Friday.

Monday is going to be a chilly one to start off.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Pleasant Weather Here; Twin Tropical Trouble

Our weather is fine here today. It is a little bit windy with winds gusting over 30 mph, making for a bad hair day. Other than that, with temperatures in the 70's and partly cloudy skies, you can't ask for much more. Tomorrow will be a cooler day, with temperatures only making it to about 70, after early morning lows in the 40's. As advertised, Friday will be a nice and warm day with highs getting into the upper 70's. It will feel nice. The next shot of light rain showers, widely scattered, will come during the day on Saturday. I am not certain of the timing, but what these showers will do is usher in some very chilly air from Canada. Highs on Sunday will struggle to get to 60 in most places. Early morning lows early next week will be quite low as well. Suburbia will likely bottom out in the mid and upper 30's, both Monday and Tuesday mornings. So, this means you may want to wear layers and just shed them during the day as afternoon temperatures warm.

The tropics are making headlines as well today. First I will talk about the Tropical Depression in the Gulf of Mexico, within miles of the southeast coast of Texas. Winds with this system are 35 mph, so it is close to TS status. It may make it to about 40 mph, but that would be about it. It only has about 30-50 miles of water left before it makes landfall in Texas. The other concern is out in the middle of the Atlantic off the African coast. It is a more impressive looking system on the satellites, and has lots of time to mature into something major, if it doesn't get pulled north into the "Hurricane Graveyard," which this storm has all the potential to do. By this weekend, it should be gaining strength, likely becoming a hurricane, heading for the eastern Atlantic. Its still days away from even affecting any type of landmass, so we won't worry about this one until Saturday.

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Flooding Rains End; Sun Returns

Flood advisories and warnings are posted all over the place this afternoon. A real heavy band of rain has moved up through SNE, especially in the NW suburbs of Boston and especially Worcester. Rain has been coming down in buckets, at the rate of .25" to .50" an hour, causing ponding on the roadways and a general unsafe driving condition. The rain will continue to be moderate to heavy until about 4PM, when it should start to lighten from south to north. Heavy rain may linger in southern NH until about 5-6PM. Rainfall on the order of 1-3" is quite common away from Worcester in the western part of Massachusetts and southern Vermont, where there is still hours of heavy rain to go through. Rainfall totals, when all said and done out there will range from 2-4",with local areas picking up closer to 5-6" of rain. South and east from a line from Worcester to Portsmouth, NH, rainfall totals will come down a bit, still heavy, mainly 1-2". Further southeast of Brockton, Quincy, less than 1" of rain will fall. Again it ends around the evening rush and will be all but gone by daybreak. Tomorrow will be a windy day with warm air down on the ground mixing with the very cold air over top of us, causing instability and heavy winds. We cool for Thursday and warm up again ahead of a cold front and showery Saturday. Some spots of Friday could hit 80, perhaps, not 90-95 like last Friday, but warm still for football games.

Don't worry though, showers move through on Saturday and we really cool off on Sunday with high temperatures likely staying in the low 60's along the coastal plain and upper 50's in northern Worcester County and SW NH. Low to mid 50's will probably be all NNE will be able to muster, with overnight lows going into the hard killing freeze criteria for NNE with many places getting down into the mid and upper 20's for lows and not going above freezing for 2-4 hours. Here in SNE, a few colder spots may flirt with freeze just before daybreak, but it won't be anything more than a patchy frost. Mid 60's South; Mid 50's North will be the rule going into Monday of next week with partly cloudy skies.

Monday, September 10, 2007

Washout Tuesday

I busted today's forecast. That front never got north of the Boston metro area. Temperatures have been stuck in the mid 60's all afternoon with persistent fog and drizzle. It is a very dank and gloomy afternoon out there. Tomorrow won't be much better. Instead of fog and mist, we will replace that with a general rainfall. Tomorrow showers will develop in the mid-late morning, some heavy by early afternoon and cause the day to be pretty much a washout. I have a high forecasted to be 73 degrees for a SNE average, but if this rain starts late morning and continues until dark off and on, temperatures will likely stay in the low to mid 60's. The rain will move out and we will have a nice rest of the week, allbeit, much cooler than we have been used to here in SNE.

With nearly 100 percent sunshine, temperatures will only manage the mid and upper 60's on both Wednesday and Thursday, allowing overnight temperatures to really get chilly, especially in the suburbs. Lows will be common, in the 40's. Friday warms up a tad to more seasonable levels, but it will be shortlived ahead of a cold front that will move through the area on Saturday, ushering in some of the coolest, crisp, Canadian air since last spring. Highs will likely stay in the low 60's in SNE, mid 50's up North, with lows getting back into the 30's in many suburbs of Boston. Boston, itself, will likely fall to around 50. We'll see how it turns out. More needed rain is in the forecast for tomorrow so thats a good thing.

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Raw Sunday Leads to a Steamy Monday

Yesterday was one of those days that felt like was in the wrong month. Highs yesterday were in the low to mid 90's from Hartford to Boston to Concord, NH and Bangor, ME. It was pretty unbelievable. Now today, north of the stalled frontal boundry, temperatures have remained in the upper 50's to low 60's all afternoon with a raw NE wind. South of the front, positioned near the Mass Pike, temperatures are in the upper 70's and low 80's with sticky conditions. This front will go back north overnight and lows will stay in the 60's overnight here in SNE, even rise a couple degrees in places like Lawrence, MA where temperatures this afternoon have been in the 59-60 degree range.

Tomorrow will be much warmer with morning showers and increased humidity. Tropical Storm Gabrielle, pretty much a dud of a storm will pass well SE of Nantucket with max winds of 45 mph. It may cause a little build up of the seas, but that would be about it. A more beneficial rain could be in the cards for Tuesday afternoon as a little ripple of low pressure could enhance rainfall along a stalling frontal boundry, giving SNE a nice soaking rain that we so desperately need. We'll watch that. It cools and dries off later in the week with mostly sunny skies and highs pretty much in the lower 70's, seasonable levels. Saturday brings another chance of PM showers, but it now looks like most will wait until overnight Saturday and early Sunday. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures should shoot well into the 70's to perhaps 80 degrees in parts of SW southern New England with increased humidity before we really cool off for Sunday and early next week. Highs should get down into the 60's by this time with lows really cooling off.

The Pats are looking good this year...

Friday, September 07, 2007

Hot, Hot, Hot!

Going outside today is a real shock to the system. It feels like we are back in the midst of the swealtering days of July. Temperatures across eastern southern New England have come up into the lower 90's, with dewpoints in the muggy range, creating a heat index in the mid 90's. Don't expect much relief from the heat tomorrow. Overnight lows will struggle to get below 70 in many spots with very humid conditions, which I can imagine will be very tough for high school football players tonight in many kickoff games. Tomorrow starts off with a good launching pad with temperatures already in the low to mid 70's by 7-8AM. This will shoot us up into afternoon temperatures in the low to middle 90's, pegging a general Boston metro high of around 93 degrees. The record for tomorrow in Boston is 95 degrees set in 1872, but I don't think that Boston will break or even tie that record of over 130 years.

Cooler air, but still humid is on tap for Sunday and early Monday with the possibility of a few showers, but many of them will stay up north where the stationary wavering front will likely stay most of the time. Temperatures will be knocked down into the 70's. Right now, that area of disturbed weather east of the Carolinas is finally reaching a period that it will be able to develop, and quite quickly. It won't be explosive development, but it will be impressive. It should be a Tropical Storm or Depression by the end of the day. Many models take it to the North Carolina coast and then move it up to about the Del Marva, before jutting it out well south of Nantucket and the Cape. Most of the rain will miss SNE to the SE as well, so no soaking rains of 2"+ for our lawns, which it so desperately needs. The next shot of rain showers comes Wednesday, but it will not be a whole lot of water. Just a chance of some showers. Very isolated in nature as well.

Thereafter, we dry and cool to around 70 degrees to round off the work week, next week. Enjoy your weekend and if you can, get to your favorite beach or pool to enjoy tomorrow's summer redux. Who knows, it could be the last real summery day. Its getting to be that time of change again.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Summer Returns

Summer is returning to SNE Friday in a big way. While kids are cooped up in classes and you can call in, I would advise you to do so. The beaches will be practically empty, but it will be one of the best beach days all summer long. Temperatures will likely get up to 90 at the beaches tomorrow with water temperatures still warm in the mid 60's, what more could you ask for. If you wait until Saturday to get to the beach, you will likely see big crowds and they will likely try to make a few bucks by putting someone out to collect the $20-30 at the parking lots. After Saturday's heat, I do not see any 90's in the next week to two weeks, so this could be it, but I wouldn't bet my house on it. We will likely see 80's to perhaps 90 again before this month is over.

The deal for Sunday is that we will get a couple showers and thunderstorms with a cold front, but I do not see a soaking rain from the tropical system down south that has struggled so mightily to develop the past several days. The models keep showing this thing weaker and weaker with each passing run, so I am losing confidence that this thing will even develop past a minimal tropical storm (40-50 mph) if that. Thereafter, we will keep the risk of some showers, but the risk will be very slight at best. Temperatures will be on the cooldown though with highs getting back into the 70's after Monday's abnormally cool afternoon with highs stuck in the upper 60's with the wind coming off the water here in eastern New England. We'll see if summer doesn't have just one or two more gasps before this month is out. October is known for good 80 degree days as well, so don't bum out just yet if you think this weekend is the last of the summery weather we will see until next June.

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Tropical Threat Whaning...

The tropic threat is still alive out there as the storm has not even developed, but so many are already discounting this storm as an out to sea special. I still think it is too early to discount a storm before it actually has developed or gotten her name, Gabrielle. We'll see.

In the meantime, Thursday will be a great day across SNE. Thursday will be partly cloudy with temperatures around 80. Early morning temperatures at the bus stop will cause many to want to bring a sweatshirt with them. Lows will likely fall into the low-mid 40's in the usual cold spots of SNE, to around 56 in the city. The heat is back for Friday and Saturday and even the first part of Sunday, with increasing humidity along the way. Friday will likely get up into the mid-upper 80's, with relatively low humidity, dewpoints in the 50's. Saturday will get a tad bit more sticky with dewpoints around 60 and highs getting all the way into the lower 90's away from the shores.

Right now I have highs advertised in the mid 80's for Sunday, but if that front gets here quicker, rain showers will likely cool us down into the 70's for highs during the day on Sunday, with very high humidity. Monday would be the day that we would get hit with whatever moisture is left from the tropical system. Highs will be much cooler in the northerly winds brought down from the tropical system. This will usher in some real cool fall air after this tropical system departs, bringing in temperatures into the 60's for Tuesday. Lows will be back into the 40's and perhaps even some 30's after this front passes.

So thats it, one more cold night. Probably doesn't get down to 39 degrees in Norwood tonight, as I think this is the second or third time they have dipped into the upper 30's. Then the heat and cool weather next week.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Watching the Tropics Closely

The tropics are starting to really heat up and Hurricane Felix made landfall with the northern coast of Nicaragua as a Category 5 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, gusting well over 200 mph. The storm has since weakened as it has moved over land, but the mountainous terrain will make sure the storm slows down and dumps as much rainfall as possible on the small central American villages. Mudslides will be a major threat with this as up to 2 feet of rainfall could fall in the next couple of days. Closer to home, there is an area of disturbed weather north of the Bahamas and east of the southern Florida coast that has been sitting and spinning for a couple of days. More about this later in the post.

For the short term, expect a very chilly night tonight, especially in northern New England, as much of the northern part of the six state region is under a Frost Advisory for scattered frost will lows dipping into the lower to middle 30's tonight in many areas up North. Closer here, lows will likely dip into the low 40's in the normally coldest suburbs of Boston with the city likely staying in the mid 50's. This will lead to a perfect fallish day Wednesday as many school districts open up for the first day of classes. Highs should get into the lower to middle 70's. This will lead to another cold night as many spots could very well fall into the 40's, even Boston will fall to around 52-54 degrees. I wouldn't be surprised if Norwood fell to 38 degrees. Thursday will be sunny with highs in the upper 70's.

Then it is back to the steam heat for Friday through Sunday with temperatures getting back into the mid and upper 80's each day with rising humidity. This will open up the doors for us for a possible tropical cyclone threat. I have below a projection of Invest 99 currently and how the computer models are tracking it at the current time.

As you can see, the computer models are all over the place with the track of this storm, but many are strengthening it into a tropical cyclone of some magnitude during the timeframe. One model, the GFDL is developing the storm rapidly as a Tropical Storm and eventually a Hurricane before slowly meandering its way up the eastern seaboard, where ocean water temperatures are up to 80 degrees just south of the Jersey Shore.

The GFDL's track is outlined in the blue line and as you can see, it is showing a coastal hugger with strong winds, a Cat 1-3 Hurricane, and heavy rainfall. Waves and high surf will be another major player in this situation as well, no matter how strong this storm develops. The GFS model is usually very good at depicting tropical cyclone tracks and you can see it is delivering this storm very close to the New England coast in the pink track. This would take the brunt of the storm offshore, but it would still be a major concern for much of southern New England.

As you can see, this is a fluid situation and one that will need to be watched very closely during the next couple of days. There is not even a tropical depression out there yet, just something to keep an eye on. I will have more updates on Invest 99 later should anything develop later today or be upgraded, I will be the first to post it.

Monday, September 03, 2007

The End is Near to this Perfect Stretch

Our great stretch of weather is continuing this week as Labor Day weekend comes to a close with temperatures getting up to around 90 in many locations this afternoon, including the beaches, where I am sure are very packed today. If you don't have work or school tomorrow, I would advise you to get to the beach or pool if you can. This week, I strongly advise all of you to get at least one more trip to the beach and pool, because the end of this great stretch of weather is starting to come into sight. After this work week and weekend, I see the end. Next week looks to be much cooler and rainier than what we had the entire month of August.

Until then we have great weather for this week. Highs tomorrow will get into the upper 70's to around 80 under mostly sunny skies. The drier air will allow the lows overnight to get rather cold on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Lows on Wednesday morning will likely be 40-45 in Boston's suburbs, with Boston staying in the 54-59 degree range. Thursday morning will be extremely cold with lows in Boston's suburbs falling back all the way to 38-45 degrees. Boston will be warmer with lows in the 52-56 degree range. Don't worry this cold will be replaced with weekend heat.

Weekend heat! Highs on Friday will start to heat up back into the upper 80's with Saturday getting all the way into the lower 90's! Overnight lows won't dip into the 40's, but instead will be in the 60's to around 70, even in Boston's coolest suburbs! It will feel like summer at its peak. Sunday will be the last day of the warmth and sun as Monday of next week looks to usher in some rain showers, progressively getting heavier, and much cooler air with a wind off the water. Monday's highs will likely only be around 70 and Tuesday could be the wettest and coolest day since this past spring with highs possibly right around 60 at the shore and low 60's inland with a heavy rain. Its still a long way out, but after that we will still get some warmth as the entire front will head north of us later next week and we should return to humid and warm conditions, at least for a little while, but it won't be with 100 percent sunshine that we have experienced.

Enjoy this great weather.

Sunday, September 02, 2007

UPDATE: Fierce Felix; Category 5

Hurricane Felix has just reached Category 5 status with maximum winds of 165 mph, with higher gusts of around 200 mph! This storm has stronger winds at any point during destructive Category 5 Dean's lifespan. Dean "only" managed winds of 155 mph at its peak.

Everything is still the same with Felix, just that now it looks to hit the southern Yucatan as a strong Cat 4 or is being forecasted to hit by the NHC as a Category 5 storm, again. It'll be interesting to see if Felix reaches its peak, around 175 mph, and then its winds will have to come down. Its like throwing a ball against the ceiling. No matter how high you throw it, it will hit a cap, and then start to head down. That could be the saving grace for Mexico/Belize.

More updates tomorrow.


Our Weather

Are you ready for a hot Labor Day. If you were hoping for one last great beach day, your prayers were answered. This Labor Day will be one of the best we have seen in some years. The heat will be there, but it will not feel all that bad. September heat is different than heat in July or early August. Expect perfect weather for the beach, or in your backyard for a BBQ. Temperatures will get into the upper 80's during the afternoon hours, but then quickly fall through the 70's through the late afternoon hours and evening, falling down to around 60 by morning. Tuesday, when many go back to school, will be another beach day if you can get the chance, with highs in the lower 80's and 100 percent sunshine. We really cool off for Wednesday with highs right around 70 and lows getting into the 40's in many areas. Boston will likely fall into the lower 50's. Our cooler spots like Bedford, Plymouth, and Norwood will likely fall around 40 by sunrise. I wouldn't be surprised if Norwood fell into the upper 30's as this morning they fell to 40 degrees.

We warm right back up by the weekend with highs in the 80's by Thursday and pushing 90 by both Friday and Saturday. Enjoy it while it lasts because indications are that by mid month, we will start to cool off with more in the way of rain and clouds, which wouldn't be a bad thing as we could really use some rain to green up these lawns.

Have a nice, comfortable, relaxing, Labors' Day.

Felix Becomes Second Major Hurricane

After Dean, the tropics started to "cool" off for a while, but they are alive and kicking in this peak time of the hurricane season. (actual peak September 10th) Felix has quickly gained hurricane status after becoming a minimal tropical storm yesterday morning at the 8AM update.

Felix became a hurricane last night with winds of 75 mph, but quickly gained strength over the warm waters south of where Dean tracked.

Currently, Hurricane Felix is a strong Category 3 storm with winds of 125 mph, nearly a Category 4 storm. It has already achieved major hurricane status and is only going to intensify as it heads toward the Yucatan's southern coasts, including Belize. Felix should become a Category 4 storm by tomorrow night as winds will be in the 135-145 mph range. It should head over the Yucatan and then spill into the Gulf as a tropical storm and then intensify again to a hurricane, Category 1 or 2 before hitting the coast of old Mexico again, but the southern coasts of Texas is not out of the woods yet. Its still a long way out.

More on this developing situation later and there could be more things brewing in the Atlantic as well, farther away, and closer to home here in southern New England. Updates on these entities as well if they should develop.

Saturday, September 01, 2007

Take Advantage

Here we are in the "unofficial" last weekend of Summer 2007. Could you ask for a better ending to a great summer. This entire week looks to be completely dry and completely sunny with seasonable temperatures on Sunday before warming up for the last real summer BBQ's on Labor Day, Monday. Temperatures should get into the upper 80's and lower 90's away from the shore on Labor Day this year. It will be somewhat humid, but again, not oppressively so. Dewpoints will be in the low 60's. You'll feel it, but it won't be that bad and it will not last that long. We are back into the 70's by Tuesday and in the lower 70's on Wednesday with cooling seabreezes along the coast possible. Later next week, we will really start to heat up to the point where we may be in the 90's by Friday, just in time for many local high school football teams to kick off another season. The heat won't last and we could really get some nice fall air in the eastern third of the country by later next week.

In the tropics, Tropical Storm Felix formed this morning and has winds up to 45 mph at the 8AM hour. It will continue to strengthen and head in a westerly direction, south of where Dean went. It could strike the Yucatan, the southern part, or Belize, sometime this week as a Category 1 or 2 storm with winds approaching 100-110 mph. We'll see how this develops. More on Tropical Storm Felix later.