Thursday, August 31, 2006
Tropical Storm Ernesto is moving into the Carolinas this evening, Thursday August 31st with winds of 70 mph. Shouldn't be that bad, but it is noteworthy. Also, rainfall amounts in the Mid Atlantic should be around 4-8" widespread. Flooding is very likely.
That rain gets to New England and Boston Saturday night and Sunday and it looks to be a total washout. Thereafter, humid showery weather will start the week off and temperatures will be mild into the 70's. No big warm spells or cool spells in our future or tropical weather, except for Ernesto's remnants this weekend.
More on this forecast later.
Monday, August 28, 2006
Rain moves back in tomorrow, anytime after the morning rush hour. Rain will become moderate to heavy by noontime, especially south of the Mass Pike, where rainfall amounts may top 1-2". A few localized areas in NE CT may pick up closer to 3" of rain. North of the Mass Pike, rainfall amounts will quickly drop off. Generally expect less than three quarters of an inch. Southern NH may struggle to even see a quarter inch. That will move out tomorrow night and yield a actually nice Wednesday.
Wednesday highs will get into the mid and upper 70's. A few towns like Taunton, MA may even come close to 80 degrees. Wednesday's warmth will be short lived. A cold front will move down through the area and Thursday will be much much cooler with highs possibly staying in the upper 60's to around 70 despite the unlimited sunshine. Lows overnight Thursday and Fridaymorning will likely fall into the mid 40's in the suburbs and Thursday's highs will probably just reach the 70 degree mark. Friday will likely struggle to reach 70 degrees again. It will really start to feel like fall here in Boston.
It is still summer though and the temperatures will respond this weekend after a couple very chilly New England mornings to end the week. This Labor Day weekend temperatures will likely get into the mid 70's. At this time, all eyes will have to be pointed south as current forecast projections now show Ernesto may be coming up the eastern seaboard and actually stall off the North Carolina coast and wander around there. Right at this time, it could be at hurriane status, likely a Category 1. This will be something we will have to watch very closely, but it is so far out that we cannot be sure of anything. Hurricane forecasts over 36 hours are nothing more than a flip of a coin.
Look at that chart above. Sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic along the eastern seaboard are very warm at this time. Right now Ernesto is a minimal tropical storm with winds of 40 mph. It is forecasted to strengthen once it leaves Cuba, where it may even get downgraded to a tropical depression. Current models are showing that the storm will go between the Keys and Bahamas in the Florida Straights and hit southernmost mainland Florida, likely Homestead or Miami as a strong tropical storm with sustained winds up to 70 mph. After passing southern Florida it will move off the eastern Florida coast into the southern Atlantic. Now is where the sea surface temperatures come into effect.
There is a large area of the Gulf Stream just off the coast that travels from Florida to south of Nantucket. Here we find water temperatures greater than 80 degrees. In the purple area that is where temperatures are in the 82 to 86 degree range. This will be fuel for Ernesto and if he is out over the open warm waters here he will likely strengthen and strengthen fast. Once it gets just off the Outer Banks, we will have to watch Ernesto's movements up here in Boston. More later.
Sunday, August 27, 2006
Here is the current forecast track for Hurricane Ernesto. Hurricane warnings are in effect for SW Haiti, where the rain will be the main problem. Rainfall will range from 6-12 inches here with isolated amounts in excess of 20 inches, especially in the mountains where there WILL be mudslides and unfortunately a huge death toll. From here it will slam into southern Cuba, into the mountains, which will hurt Ernesto greatly and may be our saving grace and prevent Ernesto making it to mainland US as a Major Hurricane. Then all eyes will shift towards the western coast of Florida as areas devastated by Hurricane Charlie in 2004, may be in the path of destruction again. Could this be "The One" for Tampa? Only time will tell.
Saturday, August 26, 2006
Monday afternoon will start the clearing process and highs Monday will make it all the way to the mid 70's, a nice rebound from the mid 60's Sunday. Next week looks to be generally clear with highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's. A very seasonable end to the tranquil month of August we just had.
T.S. Ernesto is gathering steam as it heads through the Carribean. Winds right now are at about 50 mph. It should follow that general track shown above from Accuweather.com and should reach hurricane status by the time is approaches or passes Jamaica, with winds of about 75-80 mph. If it follows the track above and is unaffected by the wind sheer from a high just ESE of Florida, it could be entering the sheerless, very favorable for development, Gulf of Mexico, which water temperatures are in the 82-88 degree range. Basically bathwater and fuel for Ernesto. It could be entering the "gas station" with winds already approaching Category 2 status. This storm could easily reach major hurricane status, Cat. 3 or higher, and could reach it easily and head straight for mainland U.S.
Right now if you were in Jamaica, western Cuba, or on the Yucatan, I would pay very close attention to this thing. Then the focus will shift to the Gulf Coast of Mexico, south of Brownsville, TX, and mostly the United States. The main areas on the US Gulf that should pay closer attention to this would be anywhere from Galveston/Houston, TX to New Orleans, LA and Gulfport, MS. This could be a major disaster for areas affected by Hurricane Katrina and even areas forgotten by Hurricane Rita in western LA.
I will be paying close attention to this possible storm and you should too if you have interests down there. Oil drilling? If this becomes major and hits some of the major oil refineries in the Gulf, the dropping oil prices will sky rocket once again and $80 a barrel? Unlikely as this is an ELECTION year, but something to watch. We do not need $4-5 gal. prices.
Friday, August 25, 2006
After a surprisingly perfect day yesterday with temperatures in the mid 70's with mostly sunny skies early in the afternoon. Yesterday's perfection will be a thing of the past by tomorrow and even this afternoon with temperatures in the middle 60's. Saturday morning is when the chill will peak or bottom out with lows around New England ranging from the 30's north to the 40's in the suburbs of southern New England to around 55 in urban centers. Highs on Saturday will be hard to rise as many areas will top out on either side of 60 degrees. Places along the coast and on top of the hill in Worcester County may stay in the upper 50's. Rain and showers will likely develop on Sunday and pretty much be a washout and the forecast for Monday has changed. Looks like the warm front will not be through our area and temperatures will stay around 70 with limited sun and a possible shower. Another washout on Tuesday. Possibly, but I would not bet on a total washout that quick. Sunnier, drier, and warmer air is on the way for later next week as temperatures will be back into the 70's.
Side note: T.D. 5 has developed around the Windwards. Will likely become Ernesto and move through the Carribean as a tropical storm. May be making landfall in Jamaica by the end of this weekend. Should be something to watch. Debby...forget about her.
Thursday, August 24, 2006
Can you believe it? This upcoming weekend is the weekend before the Labor Day holiday, an infamous one for many New England kids as it signals the last weekend of summer vacation and back to school. Well, it will sure feel like fall. Today, Thursday is very chilly, especially by the water, Boston, with temperatures struggling to reach 70 by early afternoon and before the rain tonight. Rain tonight? Yup, rain is moving in from the west as we are talking from NY State and is poised to move in later this afternoon and yield way to a rainy and showery cool overnight. Temperatures tonight with the rainfall will generally be around 50 in Boston metrowest to around 58 in urban heat islands like Boston.
The rain will taper very early Friday morning in the predawn hours, but the clouds will be slow to break for the afternoon, however they will eventually later in the afternoon around 3-6PM. Temperatures Friday will be exceptionally cold as there will be limited sunshine. Highs in the middle 60's will be found on the coast to around 69-71 inland by about 10-15 miles with a raw NE wind. A real preview of fall weather.
Saturday morning will be mighty cold for even our New England standards of August. Temperatures could bottom out to around 40 in Boston's metrowest suburbs of Bedford and Norwood. Early forecasts show that even Plymouth and Martha's Vineyard could bottom out around 42-46 degrees Saturday morning. Closer to the cities, temperatures will range from the upper 40's to around 50 just outside the city by about 3-4 miles, encompassing cities like Somerville, MA and Medford, MA. In the city itself, temperatures will range in the 53-56 degrees. In northern New England temperatures on Saturday morning will likely cause the National Weather Service to issue more Frost Advisories and possibly Freeze Warnings as temperatures will drop into the 30's in much of northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Places like Sutton, VT and Berlin, NH could bottom out around 32-35 degrees. Mount Washington may bottom out into the middle to upper 20's with a biting winter wind, making it feel more like the TEENS! Now this is crazy summer weather. A few SNOW flurries is also possible on Mt. Washington during this cool spell.
Sunday will be a transition day before summer weather returns Monday with highs back into the 80's. Some places may see a 40-45 degree spike from Saturday morning to Monday afternoon. Now that is a shock to the system. But don't worry about it if you like fall weather, as I do. A cool front moves in from the northwest Monday night and cools us back down to late September coolness for much of the rest of next week. Lows back in the 40's for Wednesday morning in the usual cool towns of SNE.
Forget about this one. At least put it way back into the back of your mind. Only interest for this storm will be shipping interests. Debby is going to get caught into the winds of a sprawling high pressure and move NNW and then take a dramatic turn to the north then likely NE as it hits a brick wall, the JET STREAM. Our saving grace. It will push Debby, whatever she may be at this time and send it to the "Hurricane Graveyard," the North Atlantic. It will move up there and soon become engaged into the jet stream and quickly become extratropical and turn into a regular storm losing all of its tropical charateristics.
There may be something developing around and just to the east of the Windward Islands at this time, but tropical cyclone formation is not likely to occur in the next 24 to 36 hours. It is something we will have to watch, however, as we are quickly approaching the climatalogical "peak" of hurricane season which tends to fall on the 10th or 11th of September.
Other than a few raindrops, enjoy the fallish weekend.
Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Temperatures will start to rebound on Saturday into the 70's with a warm front trying to move in from the SW, but it will have a hard time getting up this far NE as High Pressure over southeast Canada will likely keep it at bay for a little while anyway. This will yield to a cooler weekend then previously thought and Sunday will remain pretty chilly, for this time of year with temperatures in the lower to middle 70's, coolest along the coast and Cape. SW winds will invade the area Monday and temperatures will respond to the passage of the warm front on Monday after a few Sunday night and early Monday morning showers and thundershowers as the warm airmass invades. Right now I am forecasting the temperatures for Monday afternoon to be around 80, possibly lower 80's, because of an extended period of cloudcover in the morning hours. The roller coaster ride will continue on Tuesday as a cool front will likely move back into our area from the NNW, with another fresh airmass from Quebec. High temperatures on Tuesday will drop back into the seasonable mid 70's.
All of this overnight chill the past few nights around SNE has caused some early fall colors in some of our regions weaker maples. This is actually very interesting to see. Very early to see as much fall colors in many trees this early in the season. Could it be a warning sign of a troubling and snowy winter in the months ahead? Too soon to know, but many meteorologists believe that this particular winter upcoming could be very similar to the winters of 1995-1996 and the snowy winter with the SNE Pre-Valentine's Day Blizzard of 2005, which was winter 2004-2005. Boston's International Airport saw 107" of snow and 86" of snow those snowy winters respectively.
Now back to the tropics. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 is still looking good around the Cape Verde Islands of Africa. It will likely reach Tropical Storm status soon, but will likely have a tough time of it to survive once it reaches the middle Atlantic. Could be trouble if it stays far enough south away from the high sheer northward and dry dusty air from the Sahara. Unlikely at this point as current forecast projections take it pretty far north and keep it at T.S. status and have it possibly dissapated later in the timeframe, maybe 4-6 days out. However, it will be something that we will need to monitor in the days ahead for any changes, but even if it does become very well organized, it still poses no imminent threat to any landmass or the United States.
More on the forecast and the possible formation of Debby in posts ahead.
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
After Saturday, we will turn the switch back to summer as highs will soar back into the 80's with increasing humidity.
Tropical Depression 4 developed yesterday and before I posted on it I made sure that it would survive the night as it had to battle adverse conditions including dry air off of northern Africa and sheer from the NE. Well, it survived the night and could be strengthening into T.S. Debby within hours as it only need 4 mph more to reach T.S. status.
Once reaching T.S. status it will continue on its WNW, more NW, route following the base winds of a huge area of High Pressure located in the middle of the Atlantic. Following the base of the High, it will be strengthening and 5 days out we could be talking about HURRICANE DEBBY, the first hurricane of the 2006 Hurricane Season. It will be approaching Bermuda at this time and we will have to see if it wants to continue on a WNW route or take the turn to the NNE and spare the Northeast Coast.
Only time will tell. More updates in the days to come.
Sunday, August 20, 2006
Friday, August 18, 2006
Tomorrow will be the last partly cloudy day and the calm before the storm. Sunday rain will move into the area and will be heaviest north of Boston, especially in northern New England. Rainfall totals will range from less than a quarter inch on the Cape and South Coast, to a quarter to half inch up to Plymouth, to a half to 1.5" from Plymouth to Nashua, NH and farther north of there, 2-3" of rainfall is possible.
After the rain we will slowly move into a nice cool Canadian airmass like we saw last weekend. We could be talking about lows back in the 40's by later next week.
Like a broken record, the tropics remain extremely quiet.
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Tropics could be heating up. Water temperatures are getting very warm and the low off the SE coast has to develop in the next 36 hours or it will not develop due to high sheer.
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
The weather is turning back to its summertime tranquility right now with daytime highs in the 80's with mostly sunny skies with nighttime lows in the 60's. Next chance of weather is Sunday, a couple of showers with a frontal boundry.
TROPICS? Still watching the low pressure system off the SE coast. Doesn't pose a threat to us or the east coast yet.
Sunday, August 13, 2006
The weather for the next several days looks to be quiet. Temperatures will warm into the middle 80's tomorrow afternoon and on Tuesday morning a thunderstorm or two will move through the area and dry us out for the next couple of days, but highs on Tuesday afternoon will still manage to bounce into the mid 80's. We can expect temperatures right around 80 for the rest of the week into next weekend with mostly sunny skies by then and low to moderate humidity.
All eyes could be turning towards our south, though, as the graphic below illustrates. A weak low pressure system is currently forming just to the east of Florida and the Carolinas. This low is not in a particularily favorable area for imminent development, however, as time progresses, there could be some slow development and could pose a threat for some parts of the east coast later this upcoming weekend and early next week. Generally storms that form in this area do not form into major storms, generally reach Tropical Storm criteria, winds 39-73 mph, and sometimes minimal hurricane status, 74-85 mph. A good example of storms that formed over this area is last year's Tropical Storm Ophelia which grazed the island of Nantucket on its way to the tropical graveyard, the North Atlantic. Another more recent one is Tropical Storm Beryl that went over the Cape this July with winds to 50 mph, with no damage. Usually this storms don't even make it up to the New England states. If you remember Alex of a few years ago, it formed in that general area and grazed the Outer Banks of North Carolina and after that is moved to the northeast out following the Gulf Stream and eventually turned into a minimal hurricane in the northern Atlantic. It will be something to watch, otherwise generally quiet times still in the tropics.
Saturday, August 12, 2006
Friday, August 11, 2006
Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the 70's. Warmer weather is in store for early next week as temperatures will rebound into the 80's and Tuesday could be in the upper 80's. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area on Tuesday afternoon as a cold front from the northwest and west will move into the area and bring slightly cooler and drier air into the area for later next week. Generally this will be a perfect weather week.
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Back to the weather and simply, a perfect week is ahead. Cool days to begin and near record COLD on Sunday morning. The warming early next week back into the 80's, before we cool off and dry out again later next week back towards an early autumn feel.
Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 40's in Boston's suburbs and interior and northern New England to upper 50's in the urban areas.
Lows Sunday morning could reach RECORD levels. The record low for Boston's International Airport for this date is in the lower 50's and we could possibly see a low just about 52 or 53 which could tie or even break the record. Given that you know that lows will be mighty chilly in northern New England and in the deep valleys where temperatures could be in the 38-42 degree range. Around here in the coolest regions of southern New England, lows in the mid to upper 40's should be widespread. Mount Washington in New Hampshire could actually fall below freezing for a little while on Saturday and Sunday morning. No frost for us this weekend, but it will be very autumn like when you go to get the morning paper in your slippers Sunday morning.
Story Below Courtesy of MSNBC.com and the Associated Press (AP)
WASHINGTON - The terror scheme disrupted in London is “suggestive of an al-Qaida plot,” the Bush administration said Thursday as it issued its highest terrorism alert ever for commercial flights from Britain to the United States and raised the threat level for all domestic and international flights.
Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said there was no indication of plotting in the United States but said officials cannot assume that the terror operation in Britain had been completely thwarted.
The administration raised the threat level for flights from Britain to “red,” designating a severe risk of terrorist attacks. All other flights, including all domestic flights in the United States, were put under an “orange,” alert — one step below the highest level.
The U.S. government banned all liquids and gels from flights, including toothpaste, makeup, suntan lotion. Baby formula and medicines were exempted.
‘Suggestive of an al-Qaida plot’Chertoff said the alleged plot appeared to be engineered by al-Qaida, the terrorist group that carried out the Sept. 11, 2001, attack against the United States.
“It was sophisticated, it had a lot of members and it was international in scope,” said Chertoff. “It was in some respects suggestive of an al Qaida plot.”
He added, however, that “because the investigation is still underway we cannot yet form a definitive conclusion.”
No U.S. arrestsA U.S. law enforcement official said there have been no arrests in the United States connected to the plot.
A senior U.S. counterterrorism official said authorities believe dozens of people and as many as 50 were involved or connected to the overseas plot that was unraveled Wednesday evening.
The plan “had a footprint to al-Qaida back to it,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.
It was not believed to be connected to the Egyptian students who disappeared in the United States more than a week ago before reaching a college they were supposed to attend in Montana. Three of the 11 have since been found and the FBI has said neither they nor the still-missing eight are believed to be a threat.
The plan involved airline passengers hiding masked explosives in carryon luggage, the official said. “They were not yet sitting on an airplane,” but were very close to traveling, the official said, calling the plot “the real deal.”
Not all suspects detainedU.S. intelligence has been working closely with the British on the investigation, which has been ongoing for months, the second official said.
Authorities have not yet arrested or detained all suspects who are believed to be involved in the plot, the official said, prompting Chertoff’s alarm.
“Consistent with these higher threat levels, the Transportation Security Administration is coordinating with federal partners, airport authorities and commercial airlines on expanding the intensity of existing security requirements,” Chertoff said.
“Due to the nature of the threat revealed by this investigation, we are prohibiting any liquids, including beverages, hair gels, and lotions from being carried on the airplane.”
He said the changes take effect at 4 a.m. local time across the United States and will be undated as warranted.
The metal detector and X-ray machines at airport security checkpoints cannot detect explosives. At many, but not all airport checkpoints, the TSA has deployed walkthrough “sniffer” or “puffer” machines that can detect explosives residue.
As part of the foiled Bojinka Plot to blow up 12 Western airliners simultaneously over the Pacific Ocean in the mid-1990s, terrorist mastermind Ramzi Youssef planned to put together an improvised bomb using liquid in a contact lens solution container.
Chertoff said travelers in the United States “should also anticipate additional security measures within the airport and at screening checkpoints.”
Multiple airlines with flights to multiple U.S. airports were at risk, according to a western counterterrorism official. Another official refused to identify the airlines because they were still being notified of the threat but referred to them as the “usual suspects.” In the past, U.S. cities with terrorism threats or plots have included Washington, New York, Boston and Los Angeles. Airlines whose planes were hijacked on Sept. 11, 2001, were United Airlines and American Airlines. British Airways has also dealt with numerous threats in recent years.
“These measures will continue to assure that our aviation system remains safe and secure,” Chertoff added. “Travelers should go about their plans confidently, while maintaining vigilance in their surroundings and exercising patience with screening and security officials.”
At U.S. Northern Command, the military headquarters established in response to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks to improve coordination of the defense of U.S. territory, spokesman Sean Kelly declined to comment on any precautionary steps taken in response to the heightened threat levels.
“It is inappropriate to speculate or comment on any current operational activities or discuss future force protection measures,” he said.
Bush briefedPrime Minister Tony Blair’s office said in London that the prime minister, vacationing in the Caribbean, had briefed President Bush on the situation overnight.
There was no immediate public reaction from the White House. Bush is spending a few days at his ranch near Crawford, Texas.
The Homeland Security Department devised the alert system after the Sept. 11 attacks. The last time the U.S. government raised the terrorist risk here to orange, or high, was in July 2005 after the subway bombings in London. It was lowered to yellow a month later, the elevated risk status that has been the norm since the system was created.
U.S. authorities, including the Transportation Security Administration, planned a news briefing early Thursday.
In London, Britain’s Home Secretary John Reid said the alleged plot was “significant” and that terrorists aimed to “bring down a number of aircraft through mid-flight explosions, causing a considerable loss of life.”
Police arrested a number of people overnight in London after a major covert counterterrorism operation that had lasted several months, but did not immediately say how many. Heathrow airport in London was closed for most European flights.
The national threat level in Britain was raised to critical — a warning level that indicates the likelihood of an imminent terrorist attack. The threat rating was posted on the Web site of Britain’s MI5 — the British domestic spy agency.
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
The Sox are now 3 games behind the Yankees and are really starting to fall fast. They better get it together or they will soon be kissing this season goodbye.
Tropics? Debby could be forming within the next 24-36 hours and we could be in store for an active period in the tropics with many tropical waves lining up across Africa ready to enter the Atlantic basin.
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
Highs on Saturday and Sunday could struggle to reach the 70 degree mark each day, especially near the coast, where temperatures on Sunday may actually stay in the upper 60's. Lows overnight this weekend will be very cool. Most urban locations, such as Boston, Hartford, and Providence may stay in the upper 50's to around 60 overnight Friday and Saturday, but just outside of the cities, temperatures could get way down. Some suburbs, such as the cooler ones like Bedford, MA, Norwood, MA, Plymouth, MA, and even Martha's Vineyard, may see temperatures drop all the way into the upper 40's! If you wake up early enough Sunday morning, you probably will be able to see your breath, and in mid August!
Don't worry though, a major warmup is forecasted for early next week. After a high of 69 on Sunday, expect temperatures to rebound into the 80's for Monday and much of next week to start out local high school football.
Tropics? Ominously quiet.
Monday, August 07, 2006
Tomorrow's temperatures on the 6 day may be a little too high for many of us here for tomorrow and Wednesday. Most locations will actually stay in the upper 70's for the day. Thursday will be our one day back in the summery heat with a day very similar to today with highs in the mid and upper 80's and a chance of PM thunderstorms.
Thereafter, Friday through early next week will be very autumn like with highs in the mid and upper 70's with lows in the 50's. It will be a touch of September.
The tropics are starting to heat up a little with one particular tropical wave of concern, but it is so far away from the lower 48, that it is of little note at this time. If it survives an area of high sheer the next 24-36 hours, it may have a chance to develop into a depression or even T.S. Debbie. More on this story in the days to come.
Other than a few thunderstorms Thursday, enjoy the mild conditions this week and into next week. By the way, its that time of the year again. Monday, August 14th, is the first day of camp for many local high school football programs, so early next week expect nice weather with highs around 80 to 85 degrees.
Thursday, August 03, 2006
Storms are expected to develop this afternoon and come down from the north and move south. A few of these storms could be severe, with strong winds in excess of 60mph, torrential rains, and large hail. You will know when the front moves through the area. Winds will turn from the warm west, to the cooler northeast. Temperatures will fall 10-15 degrees immediately after the front moves through.
Tomorrow should start out with a few morning showers, especially on the Cape with highs in the lower to mid 80's in Boston's western suburbs. Boston may be cooled by a seabreeze and only see highs in the upper 70's dropping into the lower 70's in the afternoon.
The Cape will be cooler tomorrow and really start to dry out after the morning hours. Highs on the Cape tomorrow should range from between 72 degrees on the shore to 78 degrees in the city of Hyannis.
This weekend looks to be the best in quite some time. Everywhere from the Cape to northern Maine should see clear skies Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 70's to mid 80's in the warmest suburbs of Boston, CT, and southern NH.
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS UPDATE
After looking impressive on the satillite yesterday T.S. Chris has really fizzled and maximum susstained winds are only 40 mph and all the convection has moved away from the center and the eye is now totally exposed. Expect it to weaken to a depression soon, but then we may have to watch it later on once it gets out to the Gulf, if it does.