Sunday, August 13, 2006

Tropical Development off SE Coast?

The weather for the next several days looks to be quiet. Temperatures will warm into the middle 80's tomorrow afternoon and on Tuesday morning a thunderstorm or two will move through the area and dry us out for the next couple of days, but highs on Tuesday afternoon will still manage to bounce into the mid 80's. We can expect temperatures right around 80 for the rest of the week into next weekend with mostly sunny skies by then and low to moderate humidity.

All eyes could be turning towards our south, though, as the graphic below illustrates. A weak low pressure system is currently forming just to the east of Florida and the Carolinas. This low is not in a particularily favorable area for imminent development, however, as time progresses, there could be some slow development and could pose a threat for some parts of the east coast later this upcoming weekend and early next week. Generally storms that form in this area do not form into major storms, generally reach Tropical Storm criteria, winds 39-73 mph, and sometimes minimal hurricane status, 74-85 mph. A good example of storms that formed over this area is last year's Tropical Storm Ophelia which grazed the island of Nantucket on its way to the tropical graveyard, the North Atlantic. Another more recent one is Tropical Storm Beryl that went over the Cape this July with winds to 50 mph, with no damage. Usually this storms don't even make it up to the New England states. If you remember Alex of a few years ago, it formed in that general area and grazed the Outer Banks of North Carolina and after that is moved to the northeast out following the Gulf Stream and eventually turned into a minimal hurricane in the northern Atlantic. It will be something to watch, otherwise generally quiet times still in the tropics.

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