Saturday, November 29, 2008

Snowfall Potential 11/30 to 12/1, Not for SNE

Another winter storm is taking shape this weekend and should deliver a healthy dose of wintery precipitation for a large portion of the country starting tomorrow. Snow will break out across Chicago to Detroit and up into Ontario all the while NNE will start as a brief period of snow (1-3") before changing over to a mix and eventually all rain. Here in SNE, we may have a few sleet pellets mixed in at the onset around 4PM tomorrow afternoon, but that will quickly go to rain and on Monday we will actually be quite warm with temperatures soaring into the lower to middle 50s. The snow will be confined well to our west and northwest. The big winners with this one look to be Chicago up through Lower Michigan and into southern Ontario. Here a good 3-6" of snowfall, with isolated amounts of 6"+ are possible, especially in Ontario. We will have to wait our turn here in SNE. Long range still looks pretty poor for snowfall potential, FWIW. It will happen eventually though.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Perfect Weather Day for Thanksgiving

Turkey Day still looks like a winner, weatherwise. Morning temperatures will be coming up through the 30s and then be around 40 for 10AM football games. Highs tomorrow afternoon should get into the mid 40s here in SNE, colder north. It should remain totally dry as well. That leads us into Black Friday and there will be no weather issues trying to get to the mall for good deals. You'll need a winter coat with temperatures in the 40s but it won't be brutally cold. Rain should hold off until after midnight as a few wet snow flakes may be mixed in north of Route 2 and in the Worcester hills and SW New Hampshire. We stay mild through the weekend, and then our attention turns toward another storm developing in the South and see how it interacts with a trough developing over the east and see exactly where this thing wants to track. Right now, I would favor an inland track with may the initial stages of the storm starting as a brief wintry mix here in SNE, but quickly turning over to rain and with a southerly flow we will get back to around 50 degrees during the peak, very much like the situtation yesterday. We will have to wait and see how that works out, but right now it looks like another SNE rainstorm. Areas North that saw snow yesterday could see another wet accumulating snow again before any changeover. It's still 4 days away so there is time to change, but this is trending towards another rain maker. Warm at that.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Thanksgiving Day Forecast 2008

Hello all. We are just a couple days away from Thanksgiving! This year has flown by. Christmas music has already taken over two Boston radio stations and we are only a few days away from the official start of the Holiday shopping season, Black Friday. It does not look like any weather problems are in store for Turkey day or even Travel Day tomorrow once we get through today's heavy rains and gusty winds. After our 1-3" of rainfall today, then it is clear sailing to the holiday. This Thanksgiving is going to feature seasonable temperatures for late November, not too cold nor too warm. Last Thanksgiving had temperatures in the 50s to around 60, but this one will feature temperatures mainly in the 40s. If you are heading to your local town's high school Thanksgiving Day game, expect temperatures to be in the low 40s for 10AM kickoffs. We will warm into the mid and upper 40s by the time you sit down to eat your turkey feast and then slide back to around 40 for your afternoon nap and football watching activities. The weather is going to be nice and calm so it won't be the reason for a bad Thanksgiving. We stay quiet for the long holiday weekend with maybe a storm threat for the end of the period around Sunday, heading into December 1st. That is so far out, I won't go into any detail. Let's just get through today's rain and our Thanksgiving holiday. I hope everyone has a nice, restful, happy Thanksgiving!

Sunday, November 23, 2008

It's Snowing Somewhere; Just not Here

Another winter storm is about to take shape over the eastern part of the country and give a widespread area of snowfall, just not spreading any of this snowfall into SNE or even CNE for that matter. There is a large swath of a light 1-3" of snowfall from southern WI through southern lower MI into western NY. It will be all rain here in SNE as we will be on the warm side of the storm, but rainfall of 1-2" or more is quite possible. Winds will also be strong close to home with gusts of up to 55 mph possible on the Cape on Tuesday morning and even as high as 45 mph in Boston. It's going to be a stormy time of it here, but it should clear out for the busy travel day on Wednesday. Maybe a flurry later Tuesday night before that, but nothing major here. There are rumblings of a storm later next weekend, but you guessed it, looks like another warm one.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Record Cold to Rain...Wouldn't have it any other Way

Today, Saturday is going to be the coldest day since last winter here in SNE. Highs will struggle to get into the upper 20s to around 30 and yet in just a couple short days we will be seeing rain. We start to moderate tomorrow with highs getting back into the upper 30s which will feel warm after today with wind chills in the 10s. We moderate more on Monday which is a generally dry day, but cloudy with highs in the 40s before rain moves up into our area from the south and gives us a nice 1-2" soaking on Tuesday morning before ending sometime in the early afternoon. Then the storm tries to cutoff from the main jet stream and wander around for a few days eventually exiting off our coast later next week. By around Thanksgiving it tries to organize an area of snow showers into New England, but most look to stay in CNE and NNE. I kept the threat of a few flurries in the forecast, but SNE will not see any noteworthy snow unless that cutoff redevelops offshore and brings in some snow off the Atlantic, which looks highly unlikely. No big threats out there yet, but soon.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Bundle Up!

The forecast is staying unseasonably cold for the foreseeable future with storm chances starting to enter the picture as well. The next four days (Thu - Sun) look to be cold and dry with the coldest day being Saturday. Dress warmly if you are going to the tree lighting ceremony Saturday night at Fanueil Hall. It now looks colder today than it did yesterday for Saturday night. By 6PM, temperatures could be falling into the mid 20s after afternoon highs that struggle to reach 30 degrees. Winds will be quite active as well with wind chills in the teens most of the day with windchills likely falling into the upper 0s by the end of the tree lighting ceremony in Boston. It is almost going to be dangerously cold, so if you are going, be sure to dress extremely warm with multiple layers.

Now we get to talk about the storm threat for early next week, the busiest travel week of the year for Thanksgiving. Right now models are hinting at some type of storm somewhere in the in the eastern third of the country. Where this storm sets up is still a question. Yesterday models were taking this storm up through the Great Lakes, but have pushed that storm track further east with today's models runs. One model the GFS keeps the storm heading into western NY as a decaying storm that never transfers its energy to the coast, so it stays in the form of rain up and down the East Coast, with a band of heavy rain that abruptly ends before WNW winds usher in some colder air. The other reliable model, the EURO, brings the storm right off the NJ Shore, but the trough is so negatively tilted that it ushers in warm air from the Atlantic to give all of New England a SE flow that turns any frozen precipitation over to all rain, even in Caribou, ME! Both scenarios look pretty suspect to me. Right now I like the EURO better, but the fact that it gives Philadelphia to NJ a snowstorm, while keeping Caribou, ME all rain through the entire storm is a bit suspect to me. That means we will have to see what the models bring tomorrow. Right now this is a threat that is 5-6 days out, so we should have a better handle tomorrow, and especially Friday afternoon. Check back in then.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Coldest November Stretch Since 2000

A little research was done and we have found that this particular cold stretch that we are going to go through is the coldest since November 22-25, 2000. That was 8 years ago! Just for your information, that winter was a mighty cold and snowy winter for SNE, so that could be a little prelude to what may come later on. To discuss this pattern, we are still in for a very cold stretch with the cold 'peaking' right around Saturday with highs struggling to get over the freezing mark. The tree lighting at Fanueil Hall is Saturday night so I'm still thinking you should dress in layers and prepare for temperatures in the 20s during the festivities. We start to moderate going into the end of next weekend with a clipper type system that may try to get its act together off the coast, so right now we could get some rain/snow showers into SNE later Sunday into Monday, but for now I am going for a small chance (20 percent) with the possibility of something more important developing for that time period. The computer models have been abomidable so far this year, so best way is to play everything conservative until we start to see some agreement with our major computer models. (GFS/EURO/UKMET/GGEM to name a few) Right now there are all on their own with next week's storm possiblity with one saying no storm, another saying a Great Lakes cutter with warm showery rains, and another bringing some significant snow to parts of New England. So, again, I am going to play this forecast conservative and not get excited about an event until it is more like 3-4 days out, not 6-7, I learn that lesson the hard way every single winter. This year, lesson learned in mid November, usually doesn't happen until mid December. We are off to an early start.
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Monday, November 17, 2008

Snowfall Map for Tomorrow 11/18

I thought I would post a little map for the season's first flakes for a few of us. Usually I will not dedicate a whole post for flurries, but since I've got the new mapmaking program, I would give it a shot. Expect snow flurries up to say just SE of Hartford, Providence and up to Taunton/Brockton to the coast. No accumulation, but the outer Cape (Chatham) and maybe even Nantucket may see a skim coating, perhaps. Nothing big, just had time to create this map. Hopefully I will be getting tired of making maps later on this winter. We can only hope.

Cold and Dry through the Week

The cold is still on, but there are no snow chances this week. Well, there are a few minor slight miniscual snow threats to our region, but most of us won't even see a flake. The first chance comes from a clipper storm that tries to get its act together off our coast later tonight and tomorrow. As it tries to develop close to the coast, heading SE all the way, it may try to bring some snow flurries up to the Cape and the Islands. I am just talking about a scattered flurry or two, by no means accumulating snow or even a period of light snow, just a five minute, hey look if you squint hard enough, its snowing! That kind of snow. Then that clipper brings in some even colder air for Wednesday and Thursday through Friday and Saturday, with SNE bottoming out in the low 30s on Friday with highs likely struggling to get over the freezing mark. Saturday will feature a few more clouds, but will be another dry and cold day for the tree lighting in Fanueil Hall with the festivities starting around 5:30PM. An early look at that shows temperatures in the mid 30s for 4PM, likely falling to around freezing by 6PM, then falling through the 20s, likely only in the mid-upper 20s in Boston by 10PM Saturday night. The 'burbs will be getting really cold the end of this week with overnight lows getting down into the lower 10s in the colder areas to upper 10s in many other suburbs away from the urban centers. We got the cold, now we just need the snow to get into the holiday mood, just my opinion. No snow threats out there, yet.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Right to January-like Cold, Bitter Winds

Last night around 8PM, Boston reached a steamy 70 degrees ahead of the squall line that drenched many that were out and about last night around midnight. I know I was soaked. But that August like weather is now over and we are going to be getting more like January now. This is the first 5 day where I put 30s across the board. If I didn't know any better, I would think that this is a forecast in early January or February. But its a mid November forecast. Tomorrow will be a cold day with highs right around 40 degrees, with the hills staying in the mid-upper 30s for highs. Worcester, that's for you. Then we step down a little bit for Tuesday and a clipper will head to our south, decaying along the way and likely only get some clouds up to the Pike and maybe a few flurries on the Cape, but that would be about it. After that there is no real chances for snow/storms as most looks to head out to sea in the fast flow and develop too little, too late for SNE.

There is another clipper that looked good last night on the computer models, namely the 00z GFS, which had a stripe of a couple inches of snow in NW NJ through NYC, but this morning has totally lost it. That would have barely scraped the South Coast with a few snow showers, so its not that big of a loss for us. The good thing is that we are going to stay in this below to much below weather pattern (temperature) for at least the next 45 days! We will have a day here and there that spikes up to around 50, but for the most part, we are in this for the long haul. Enjoy!

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Rainy, Mild Weekend Leads to Cold and Snow Early Week

I hope the title didn't frighten you too much with the mention of snow into the forecast for Monday night and Tuesday of next week. I am only talking about a few flurries, but the first flakes of the season for metro Boston always deserve their own headline. To get there, we are going through a few showers tonight with rising temperatures for the Pats v Jets game tonight at 8:15. Temperatures should rise from the mid 40s to upper 40s through the course of the game with morning temperatures coming up to over 50 degrees in Boston early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow morning will feature lots of clouds and a few showers, but if that sun breaks out, we are off to the races in terms of high temperatures tomorrow. Right now we are easily talking about upper 50s for much of SNE, but if that sun breaks out then we are easily talking about low to mid 60s tomorrow afternoon in much of SNE. We all will rise into the mid 60s on Saturday with a gusty southerly wind and rain, heavy at times. All said and done, we are looking at perhaps up to an inch of water out of this storm system for Saturday before it clears out overnight on Saturday. Sunday will be a much cooler day, but temperatures will fall 15-20 degrees only to return to more normal temperatures. The shoe drops early next week temperature wise with highs not getting out of the upper 30s all the way to the coastal plain on Monday with a few flurries in the air. Most look to be over western New England as blowoff from the Lakes' snows, but a few lonely flurries may make it into the greater Boston area on Monday night, but we have a slightly better chance to see our first flakes here in metro Boston on Tuesday. I am not talking about accumulating snow, but just a few flakes in the air to get us into that Holiday spirit as the Fanueil Hall Christmas tree lighting is on the 20th I believe. Believe it or not, Thursday night has the slightest chance of seeing some snowfall as well, so wouldn't that be nice to get us all into that Holdiay spirit. It will definitely be very cold next week and the winter parkas and warm weather gear will be needed most definitely. More on this changing weather pattern tomorrow and our chances of our first snow next week.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Winter's March Southward Toward Lower 48 Marks Cold Next Week With Snow Chances?

After we get past tomorrow night's cool rain and Friday morning's showers, and then finally one last push of mild rain on Saturday afternoon into early Sunday we will be introducing ourselves to the coldest air since last winter into SNE. We are talking about temperatures later next week that will be featuring Decemberlike cold. Early in the week, Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will likely range from the mid 40s on Monday to low 40s on Tuesday before we dip into the 30s here in SNE, and even Boston on Wednesday and we could stay in the 30s to around 40 for about a 7-10 or more day time period before we slowly warm up for a brief time before the motherload of cold air and storminess moves in the first week of December, as it looks right now. First, we have tomorrow. Tomorrow looks like it starts off dry with maybe some early morning sunshine before it fades with afternoon temperatures in the mid 40s. Then the rain will move in tomorrow night and it will stay raw with temperatures holding steady in the upper 30s to lower 40s before we warm up on Friday into the 50s and could be into the 60s on Saturday and perhaps 50s on Sunday before cooling down bigtime later next week for the long haul.

There are also a few storm chances in this period. The first is with a clipper trying to redevelop offshore, but looks like it will be too little too late with most of the storm over the fishes. This would be in the day 6-7 time period, namely Nov. 18-19th. Then our second storm chance comes on the Nov. 20 to 22nd time period that would be a coastal type of storm. However, these are so far out in the future, I am not even going to get into any detail. All I will say about the Nov. 20-22nd storm is that there has been a signal for a coastal storm in the time period for a few days now and has not backed off, yet. always, stay tuned for further updates. One thing is for sure, wintertime cold is only a few days away and real snow threats for SNE are starting to pop up and they are no longer in fantasy range.

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Chilly Week Ahead, Not Cold Enough Though (White)

Our Sunday turned out to be a great day with mostly sunny skies and highs getting up to near 60 degrees in much of SNE. However, we will start to cool down now and this week is just a subtle preview of what we could be dealing with in about two weeks. Tomorrow we will return to seasonable weather with highs around 50 degrees, which will feel chilly after having the last few days in the 60's, since last Wednesday or Thursday I believe. We will continue to bottom out going into Tuesday and Wednesday with highs only in the mid and upper 40's. The one consolation with this will be the sunshine, but the sunshine this time of year is really becoming weaker and weaker and by 2pm, it feels like we are already starting to get dark around here, even though I know the sun doesn't set until about 4:20pm. We bottom out on Thursday ahead of the next storm system that will cut to our west and bring in some milder air for next weekend after Friday's rain showers. Thursday will be tough to get temperatures out of the upper 30's in Worcester with low lining areas staying in the lower 40's or right around 40 degrees. Our next storm system moves in Friday with RAIN showers as we warm up with SW flow. We will warm back into the 50's for next Saturday, but this warmup will be even briefer than the one we just went through. We are only about 10-14 days away from seeing some of the coldest air since last winter. Computer models this afternoon brought highs in the upper 20's to lower 30's for around Thanksgiving week, starting on Monday and continuing the cold regime, but it does look dry.

Friday, November 07, 2008

Rainy Weather

Alright, I have switched the background to our 5 day forecast from fall to winter. I think it is about time and maybe this new background can jump start our winter here in SNE. Parts of New York state, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have already seen heavy accumulating snows so far. Some parts of NY, NJ, and PA saw over a foot to 18"+ of snowfall last Tuesday. Worcester got their first flakes of the season last week as well. Then we saw temperatures soar into the mid to upper 60's early this week only to have a muggy time of it today and going into this weekend with cloudy skies and drizzly weather. Tomorrow will feature another day of scattered showers and mild temperatures, as well as Sunday before we start to cool down in a big way going into Monday when highs will be in the upper 40's in the hills to around 50 near the coast. We continue to cool down going into Tuesday and Wednesday with highs staying in the mid to upper 40's on Tuesday and likely holding in the mid 40's on Wednesday with a slight chance of a few wet snow showers later Wednesday night as a warm front moves through the area. It would be very light and right now it is just the slightest chance of actually seeing this verify. That leads us going into next weekend as a storm system will cut to our west and draw in some unseasonably warm air and rainy conditions once again before we really start to cool (cold) down going into mid month and latest indications are that we could be going into the Deep Freeze for Thanksgiving week. That's way out there so more on that later on this month. Luckily there is only about 19 days left until Thanksgiving. Where does time go?

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Mild Week Ahead, Prospects of Prolonged Cold (& Snow) Long Range

I hope everyone had a good Halloween this past Friday night. We got some great weather for the trick or treaters and for the party goers as well. Now we are into the month of November and the frequency of cold shots and snow chances will start to increase with each passing day. We start the month with average highs in the mid to upper 50’s, but by month’s end, average highs will be falling into the lower to middle 40’s, heading into December. We are starting off the month chilly with highs only getting into the mid 40’s today here in SNE. Worcester could have a tough time coming over the 38-42 degree range this afternoon. But, this is a one day cold snap and we are returning to normal or slightly above normal tomorrow afternoon with highs getting to between 55-60 degrees, warmest in the Route 24 corridor. We continue the warm up this week as we head into midweek with Tuesday and Wednesday getting real warm around these parts ahead of the next storm system. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be getting into the lower 60’s easily and with enough sunshine, either of the two days, more likely Wednesday could get close to 70 degrees in some parts away from the coast, believe it or not. But then the rain and unsettled weather comes for later in the week with Thursday and Friday both being showery days with highs dropping back into the 50’s, but it will still be a warm airmass, so no worries of frozen precipitation even to the Canadian border with this one. It will be an all rain situation.

Outlooks way out into mid November suggest a return to a prolonged period of cold weather and storm chances, but that is so far out, let’s get through the first two weeks of November before we start thinking about the last two weeks. As the winter returns, I will be posting more and more often, so get ready, Winter 2008-2009 is nearly upon us.