Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Bundle Up!

The forecast is staying unseasonably cold for the foreseeable future with storm chances starting to enter the picture as well. The next four days (Thu - Sun) look to be cold and dry with the coldest day being Saturday. Dress warmly if you are going to the tree lighting ceremony Saturday night at Fanueil Hall. It now looks colder today than it did yesterday for Saturday night. By 6PM, temperatures could be falling into the mid 20s after afternoon highs that struggle to reach 30 degrees. Winds will be quite active as well with wind chills in the teens most of the day with windchills likely falling into the upper 0s by the end of the tree lighting ceremony in Boston. It is almost going to be dangerously cold, so if you are going, be sure to dress extremely warm with multiple layers.

Now we get to talk about the storm threat for early next week, the busiest travel week of the year for Thanksgiving. Right now models are hinting at some type of storm somewhere in the in the eastern third of the country. Where this storm sets up is still a question. Yesterday models were taking this storm up through the Great Lakes, but have pushed that storm track further east with today's models runs. One model the GFS keeps the storm heading into western NY as a decaying storm that never transfers its energy to the coast, so it stays in the form of rain up and down the East Coast, with a band of heavy rain that abruptly ends before WNW winds usher in some colder air. The other reliable model, the EURO, brings the storm right off the NJ Shore, but the trough is so negatively tilted that it ushers in warm air from the Atlantic to give all of New England a SE flow that turns any frozen precipitation over to all rain, even in Caribou, ME! Both scenarios look pretty suspect to me. Right now I like the EURO better, but the fact that it gives Philadelphia to NJ a snowstorm, while keeping Caribou, ME all rain through the entire storm is a bit suspect to me. That means we will have to see what the models bring tomorrow. Right now this is a threat that is 5-6 days out, so we should have a better handle tomorrow, and especially Friday afternoon. Check back in then.


Mr. Foot said...

Dr. E.H. I presume?

What a delightful surprise to stumble across your very own website!

Congratulations on taking this big step forward, and perhaps we can partner on forecasting together when the next big one comes!

I love your maps and graphics.. now you're the expert and I'll be coming your way for advice my old friend!

Talk to you soon.

E.H. Boston said...

Nice to hear from you Dr. Foot. Hoping for some good snows down your way this winter for a change. I'm thinking it should be a fairly decent winter...