Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Coldest November Stretch Since 2000

A little research was done and we have found that this particular cold stretch that we are going to go through is the coldest since November 22-25, 2000. That was 8 years ago! Just for your information, that winter was a mighty cold and snowy winter for SNE, so that could be a little prelude to what may come later on. To discuss this pattern, we are still in for a very cold stretch with the cold 'peaking' right around Saturday with highs struggling to get over the freezing mark. The tree lighting at Fanueil Hall is Saturday night so I'm still thinking you should dress in layers and prepare for temperatures in the 20s during the festivities. We start to moderate going into the end of next weekend with a clipper type system that may try to get its act together off the coast, so right now we could get some rain/snow showers into SNE later Sunday into Monday, but for now I am going for a small chance (20 percent) with the possibility of something more important developing for that time period. The computer models have been abomidable so far this year, so best way is to play everything conservative until we start to see some agreement with our major computer models. (GFS/EURO/UKMET/GGEM to name a few) Right now there are all on their own with next week's storm possiblity with one saying no storm, another saying a Great Lakes cutter with warm showery rains, and another bringing some significant snow to parts of New England. So, again, I am going to play this forecast conservative and not get excited about an event until it is more like 3-4 days out, not 6-7, I learn that lesson the hard way every single winter. This year, lesson learned in mid November, usually doesn't happen until mid December. We are off to an early start.
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