Friday, November 30, 2007
I will post a more detailed snowfall map with numbers sometime tonight or tomorrow.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
It is still way out there, but preliminarily, I would say that areas south of the Pike and along the immediate coast may see a slushy coating on the onset with that quickly being washed away with temperatures rising into the 40's and maybe some 50's on the South Coast on Monday. North of the Pike, generally NW of Rt. 128 and especially Rt. 495, there may be a slushy inch or two of snowfall and snowfall amounts will quickly increase to about 3-6" through southern Vermont and southwest New Hampshire with some parts of northern New England likely seeing over 6" of snowfall Monday.
It's still a wait and see situation, so stay tuned to later changing forecasts. After the storm, very cold weather will pour into New England with highs likely 25 to 35 degrees on Tuesday across the six state region.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Then comes the storm threat for the end of the weekend and Monday. Yesterday and as early as this morning, it looked like we were going to see our first significant snowstorm of the season, but the models have since changed and most it not all of calling for a Lakes Cutter, so that warm air will surge into SNE on a southerly gale and warm us up enough to see plain rain. Ahead of the warm front, we may start as a brief initial period of rain/snow/sleet, but that would quickly transition to rainfall, especially near the coasts. If you want to see all snow, you would have to travel to the far reaches of Northern New England, and even there, a wintry mix cannot be ruled out. Some models go as far as to bring temperatures up into the 50's and 60's again with showery rains into areas of southern New England on Monday, similar to today, especially south of the Mass Pike.
Basically, if you were hoping for a snowstorm to end the weekend, our chances of seeing significant snow are dwindling and FAST!
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Once it does clear up on early Tuesday we will be talking about a warm afternoon with gradual clearing. Highs will be in the mid 50's and the smell of spring will be upon us once again after leaving on Thanksgiving Day. It will be short-lived, though, with the cold really coming back after seasonable temperatures Wednesday through Friday, mainly in the 40's.
By the start of the weekend, we will be in the low 30's with all eyes turning southwest, looking for our next storm coming with a renewed source of cold air for New England. We will have to wait and see how this eventually pans out for the first of December, with the NAO crashing by this time period. It could get interesting...
Thursday, November 22, 2007
This will usher in the cold and an end to the extreme warmth at least until the next storm system moves in for the early to middle part of next week. First tomorrow will be a much colder and windier day with highs only managing mid to upper 30's. It will feel more like late December, early January out there. Overnight lows will really plummet on Friday night. Low in the suburbs will come down to between 10-15 degrees. The cities will hold onto the warmth a bit longer, with lows coming down to between 25-30 degrees, in Boston. Providence/Hartford will fall to 20-25 degrees.
Then we will start to warm up ahead to the next storm and then we will be talking about a warm windswept rain for Tuesday through the day, likely tapering later in the afternoon with temperatures dropping later. Then we will be back to the cold and wind for Wednesday.
Any snow in the forecast? I don't see it right now. It looks to be dry this weekend when we would have cold enough temperatures to produce snowfall, but once we get some precipitation the temperatures will warm enough for us to see all rain on Monday night into Tuesday.
Thereafter, its too far to know for sure what will happen. These computer models are bad enough going 3-4 days out.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Tomorrow will be mainly dry for all the football games in the morning for 10AM kickoffs. We should be very mild with temperatures in the 50's at this time. The rain will not move in until later in the afternoon. Once the rain moves in, plummeting temperatures will not be too far behind. By midnight, temperatures will already be falling through the 40's and be in the mid 30's outside of Boston.
8AM Tailgating.......Cloudy & Warm; Around 50
10AM Kickoff..........Cloudy/Chance of Shower; Low 50's
2PM Turkey Dinner............Chance of Shower; Low to Middle 50's
6PM Nap...............Showers Likely; Upper 40's
12AM Late Night Parties.......Showers; Upper 30's
Finally, I want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving and all get to share it with the people you care about most. I'll have an update on the coldwave coming tomorrow afternoon after the turkey and football.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
EAST CHARLEMONT 2.3 1050 AM 11/20 SPOTTER
GREENFIELD 2.0 1143 AM 11/20 SPOTTER
SUNDERLAND 1.8 1057 AM 11/20 SPOTTER.
GRANBY 1.6 1039 AM 11/20 SPOTTER
PAXTON 2.5 1151 AM 11/20 HAM RADIO
So today was a nice little surprise. The snow quickly moved into the Boston area around 10AM this morning and reduced visibility quite a bit in a few places. In the heat of the snow, the visibility came down to between 1/2 to 1 mile. My unofficial reading for Woburn, MA is 0.5" The snow shut off around 1PM as the main shield of precipitation moved to the SE. The forecast does not hold any more snow for southern New England, but we could be seeing some more rain for Thanksgiving Day. Could be some sloppy football games on Thursday morning.
Monday, November 19, 2007
There is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the Berkshires and southern Vermont, for some accumulating snow and light ice accretion.
Here is what the NWS out of Taunton is thinking about tomorrow.
TUESDAY... CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN EARLY DUE TO LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST... HIGH TEMPS GIVEN BY MOS WILL BEREDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOMELIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.PRECIP...A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION WILL TRIGGER A FEW HOURS OFSTEADY PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT COULDCOME DOWN AT A DECENT CLIP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE PEAK TIMESBETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON. IT PROBABLY WILL BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOWACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE FEEL THIS WAY AFTERLOOKING AT THE UKMET/GFS/ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURE AND SOUNDINGPROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM APPEARS TO SLOW WHICH IS ATYPICAL BIAS OF THE MODEL AND THINK PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVEBETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ACROSS WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. THIS MEANSTHAT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT THE TIME PRECIPITATIONMOVES IN...WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSSINTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ESPECIALLY IN THE NW INTERIOR REGIONS ANDTHE WORCESTER HILLS, WHERE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AN AMOUNTOR TWO EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS ALSO ACHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET MIXED IN ACROSS THEINTERIOR. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL NOT HOIST A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIALESPECIALLY IF IT APPEARS THAT MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL MIX IN FORA TIME AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WINTRY EVENT FOR THE SEASONIMPACTING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. AGAIN...WE DO THINK THATACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON ROADWAYS BECAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ATDAYBREAK ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING.
We will see what the weather brings tomorrow.
The warmth returns on Wednesday with highs in the mid 50's. Rain showers will likely develop in the nighttime hours. Right now there is a spread at how strong the Thanksgiving storm will be and its exact position, but all models are hinting at an Appalachian runner with southern New England in the warm sector, with highs in the mid 50's with showery rains, becoming heavier later in the afternoon. The GFS is the strongest with an actual strong storm developing along the front, while the NAM is just a front moving through our area. Either way, far reaches of northern New England may see some accumulating snow out of this as they will be removed from the warm sector much of the time.
That will move through and the New England area will cool off into chilly, but not exceptionally chilly conditions. Highs will be in the 40's on Friday through Sunday with moderating temperatures by Sunday. The next storm system will be a warm one coming up from the Southeast. The NAO will be soaring well into the positive range at this time, so we can assume the storm will remain far inland, sending warm moist air into the East.
The forecast of the NAO is for it to turn more negative by the first of December, so we could see a colder, stormier start of the first month of winter. We will see if that comes to be, as it seems like we are always 5-10 days away from that big storm or bigtime cold airmass, only to have the models change 3 -4 days before the event. It's a wait and see kind of forecast.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Thats it. North of Hartford to Providence to Plymouth, MA, there will not be anything. Not even a flurry. We will mark this up as DISAPPOINTMENT NUMBER ONE for the winter season of 2007-2008.
It will be cold on Monday, however. Highs will stay in the 30's. We warmup thereafter. Did anyone say 60 degrees for Thanksgiving?
The GFS brings the 0.25"-0.50" of liquid to southern Vermont and New Hampshire. This would be mainly snow, so you can imagine that someone or many would see a general 3-5" snowstorm out of this, with rain along the Cape and immediate coastline, Boston being right on the line between rain and snow. It paints QPF up to 1"+ in parts of Connecticutt, so we could see 4"+ there. However the NAM barely brings any rain/snow light showers onto the South Coast with most of the precipitation missing SNE by 100-200 miles. Most of the precipitation would fall over PA and NJ. New York City could see its first flakes.
You can see that the models are AWFUL this season. They cannot even come into some kind of agreement only 24-36 hours before the event. This is a shot in the dark forecast for any meteorologist. If they side with one, they could bust badly, and even if they go in the middle, like me, they could still bust badly. If you call for a the first flakes, even if its a few flurries and it doesn't happen...its a bust. If you call for a few flurries and you get 5" of snow...its a mega BUST.
Basically, this forecast has BUST all over it. I know I will have to change this forecast, but this map is what my first call is. The South Coast will see a mix of rain and snow, mainly rain. Up to .25-.50" of QPF. Further north, where it will be colder, a sloppy 1-2" of snow will fall, highest in the highest elevations in NW Rhode Island and northeastern Connecticutt. Southern Worcester county could see a whitening of the ground as well. Then north of the Pike, expect flurries all the way to southern New Hampshire.
Thats my call for now. If we see the NAM come further north, these snowfall amounts will come up. If they side more with the NAM, don't expect much tomorrow. Timing on all this is delayed now. Mainly late Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours of Sunday. A delay of about 24 hours.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Thereafter, we will warm up BIG TIME heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. High temperatures on Wednesday will get into the 50's once again and then we could have a really mild Thanksgiving Day with highs in the mid 60's, believe it or not! We will warm dramatically ahead of a cold front loaded with rainfall and ripples of low pressure along the front that will douse the area with heavy rains late Thanksgiving night and early Black Friday. Expect it to feel more like Christmas after Thanksgiving as the coldest shot of air we have seen in a while for November will move into the area for Thanksgiving weekend, later in the period.
Current projections show that the upper Plains, MN, ND, SD, MT, could see temperatures only manage 0's and 10's for highs the week after Thanksgiving weekend with subzero lows. That cold will move east.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Wintertime cold moves in after a front passes through on Saturday night and we will only see highs in the middle 30's on Sunday afternoon! The clipper system looks to continue heading to our south as even now the GFS has backed away from its once promising snowfall forecast from yesterday. That said, there may be a few snow flurries or sprinkle south of the Mass Pike early Sunday morning, but that would be about it. Nothing even remotely significant. A nonevent. Waking up Monday morning will be tough with widespread lows in the 10's in southern New England will lows in the single digits up North.
However, the NAO eases and heads back POSITIVE later next week and that will allow the warmth to move over the northeast once again, with temperatures getting back to 60 degrees by midweek and that would be Thanksgiving. Right now, I think the Thanksgiving holiday looks great with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 50's for the 10AM games. Its way out there, but at least there won't be weather on that day for the games, at least thats how it looks now. These models can flip on a moment's notice. So, stay tuned, as usual.
So get ready for the possibility of our first flakes tomorrow morning and get ready for a really chilly weekend.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
The snow will fly much of the day in northwestern Maine, where some mountain resorts could come in with close to 10" of snowfall, heavy wet snowfall at that. Then we all have a blustery cold Friday with highs in the low 40's. The weekend looks to be mostly dry with highs on either side of 40 degrees.
There is a small chance that we could see some snow with a clipper on Sunday, but most computer models are taking this clipper further south and the only model showing any snow for southern New England is the GFS and it has een awful as of late, so I am not going with its forecast, just yet.
Check in tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
More likely, parts of Maine will see more snowfall. Good for the ski areas, at least. I'll keep you updated.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Merry Christmas, oh sorry, the radio switched to Christmas tunes this morning on 103.3 and 105.7.........only about 40 shopping days left.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Stay tuned for updates on the storm track. Updates from the computer models always come out just before 12AM, 6AM, 12PM, and 6PM, daily. Expect big updates every 5-6 hours. Any slight shift NW, will mark a major change in our weekend forecast.
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Enjoy our tranquil week, weatherwise, this week. The NAO is tanking later next week, so the storminess will return after todays heavy rains.
Monday, November 05, 2007
Here is what the Boston Forecast Discussion is saying about this event...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS A FAIRLY POTENT UPPERLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVECOME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE EVOLUTIONOF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALL OF THEM /EXCEPT THE ECMWF/ NOWDEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME FRIDAYNIGHT...THEN MOVE IT NORTHEAST WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKETSOMETIME SAT OR SAT NIGHT. THE 00Z OP GFS...00Z GFSENSEMBLE...UKMET...GGEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS.WILL
THEREFORE INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OFTHE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THEECMWF TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE HAVING ANYTHING MORE THANLOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...IF THE 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS PANSOUT...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON /ALBEIT QUITE LIGHT/. THE COASTALPLAIN LIKELY STAYS LIQUID AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BERELATIVELY WARM.
We will see how the computer models go this afternoon....
Sunday, November 04, 2007
These clipper type storms can be there one day and the next be vanished, so stay tuned, but for the last few nights, the GFS has been showing something for next weekend. Stay tuned.
Until then, bask in the glory of a Celtics OT win this afternoon against the Raptors and the AMAZING win by the Pats over the dreaded Colts and Manning tonight. 9-0!
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Finally, I want to remind everyone that we are getting an extra hour of sleep tonight because we are returning back to standard time. The sun will be setting at around 4:35 tomorrow afternoon. The sun will be out tomorrow and we will have highs in the mid 50's, so it will feel much better than today, but the winds could still be a bit gusty, but only up to 30mph at the coast.
Sit back and enjoy the storm.
Friday, November 02, 2007
Here is a breakdown.
Cape..........Peak sustained at 40-55mph; gusts to 85+
Boston.......Peak sustained 30-45mph; gusts to 65+
Worcester.......Peak sustained 15-25mph; gusts to 35+
Cape...........Extremely Heavy, Flooding Likely; 4-8"
Boston.........Heavy, Flooding Possible; 2-4"
Worcester.........Light to Moderate at times; Less than 1"___________________________________________________________________
So as you can see, the Cape and southeastern Massachusetts will see much of the action tomorrow. If you are in Vermont this weekend, tomorrow will be a nice day with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 50's. In eastern SNE, highs will only make it into the low-mid 40's with wind chills likely in the upper 30's. Sunday will be much better with everything clearing out and highs getting back into the mid and upper 50's. It will be a good day to clean all the debris out of our yards. Down the Cape, you may have more work to do than the rest of us.
Be safe tomorrow and don't be stupid and go surfing with 85mph winds. I suggest everyone from Boston on SE just stay home and watch the storm from the window. It will be much safer that way. This storm has already killed over 20 people, so be careful.
Thursday, November 01, 2007
Here is the rainfall impact forecast for
SNE. As you can see, the Cape will bear the brunt of the storm with the heaviest rainfall. Some of the models are bringing nearly 3-4" of rainfall to the Cape and extreme southeastern Massachusetts. Then the rest of the eastern part of the state and region will likely see moderate rain with an inch or two possible. There will be a sharp cutoff in the rain so past Worcester County won't see anything. At least this is how it looks right now at this point. Winds will be another major issue with the trees still having most of their leaves, especially southeast, the wind will likely cause scattered power outages. Obviously, the Cape and the coastline will see the strongest of the winds. We are talking sustained winds of 35-45mph during the peak of the storm sometime Saturday with peak wind gusts over 60mph, perhaps approaching hurricane status down on the elbow of the Cape. Further inland, the winds will be strong (25-35mph) but not as strong as SE. For this reason all of eastern SNE is under a HIGH WIND WATCH at this current time and I would not be surprised if the Cape goes under a TROPICAL STORM WATCH later tomorrow. Just when you thought we were heading to winter, this happens. But wait, we are. The entire time this event is happening, cold air will be diffusing into the back side of this storm system and we will be seeing a windswept frigid rain, with highs in the mid-upper 40's.
This is a BIG DEAL and nothing to turn your back to. It will be DANGEROUS on Saturday with the winds blowing down trees and possible flooding with the heavy torrential rains, falling perhaps 1-2"/hr. This has come on the forecasting community kind of fast and tomorrow, I hope the news will allude to the fact that this could be a LIFE-THREATENING STORM for SNE, especially on the Cape. I don't want to sound like a dark forecaster, but this storm is going to catch a lot of people off guard.
Waves during this storm could approach 30-40 FEET just offshore, so do not go out fishing on Friday night and Saturday. It could be a LIFE AND DEATH situation if you decide to go out of port during this storm. I cannot emphasize that enough. Be safe and more on this rapidly developing situation later.