Monday, November 19, 2007

Soggy Turkey Day

Thanksgiving Day is only a couple days away. The forecast is becoming more and more clear as we head towards the big holiday of football and turkey. First lets get through our short work week. This afternoon, there is a band of ocean effect showers that show up on the radar as rain showers down on the South Shore near Plymouth, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear of a few snowflakes mixed in as well. This morning there was a flurry in the Boston area with a few flakes seen around 8:30AM this morning. Tomorrow will start off dry but then the clouds will lower and a period of showers will commence. If the shield of precipitation gets in here before noon, we could be talking about a mix of rain and snow, changing to rain. Tomorrow will be another chilly one with highs in the upper 30's in Worcester County to low 40's elsewhere.

The warmth returns on Wednesday with highs in the mid 50's. Rain showers will likely develop in the nighttime hours. Right now there is a spread at how strong the Thanksgiving storm will be and its exact position, but all models are hinting at an Appalachian runner with southern New England in the warm sector, with highs in the mid 50's with showery rains, becoming heavier later in the afternoon. The GFS is the strongest with an actual strong storm developing along the front, while the NAM is just a front moving through our area. Either way, far reaches of northern New England may see some accumulating snow out of this as they will be removed from the warm sector much of the time.

That will move through and the New England area will cool off into chilly, but not exceptionally chilly conditions. Highs will be in the 40's on Friday through Sunday with moderating temperatures by Sunday. The next storm system will be a warm one coming up from the Southeast. The NAO will be soaring well into the positive range at this time, so we can assume the storm will remain far inland, sending warm moist air into the East.

The forecast of the NAO is for it to turn more negative by the first of December, so we could see a colder, stormier start of the first month of winter. We will see if that comes to be, as it seems like we are always 5-10 days away from that big storm or bigtime cold airmass, only to have the models change 3 -4 days before the event. It's a wait and see kind of forecast.

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