Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Now that I got that out of the way, I have more bad news. Its looking clearer that the storm system for Friday will now be heading mostly if not all out to sea and will just graze the extreme eastern portion of New England with a mix of rain and snow. Accumulations look to be minor at best. Maybe a sloppy inch?
That said, any developments or changes to the forecast and I will be the first to report them. For now, its still looking like the winter of neverending disappointments for us snowlovers. Sorry, I wish I could change this horrific sequence of events.
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
I will be sticking to my map from yesterday and hope for the best. I think that NWS may be overdoing it a tad, but the difference between a 2-4" forecast and a 3-6" forecast is really splitting hairs to tell you the truth. I was going to make a new map and post 2-5" for the Cape, but system stalled and I didn't bother.
Enjoy the snow as the once promising late week storm may want to stay out to sea and spare our area from any appreciable snows, except maybe the Cape and Islands where a few inches is still possible.
Its turning into NOWCAST time and I will be posting the snowfall amounts from tonight and tomorrow morning in tomorrow's post.
Monday, January 29, 2007
I will have another major update later tonight and we'll see what the models are showing with this storm tonight. Then by tomorrow, inside 72 hours, we'll have to start making some responsible forecasts. Until then, arrivederci.
Saturday, January 27, 2007
Will this week bring any snow? Yes is the short answer. Where is the next question. Tomorrow night the Cape and Islands will see some ocean effect snow which I detailed below in the next post with a snowfall accumulations map. Thereafter, cold air will filter into our area again with high back into the 20's for Tuesday and Wednesday. We will moderate into the low 30's late week and with the "warmup" a storm is forecasted to move into our area from the SW. Right now the GFS is taking this as an inland runner, actually tracking right over ORH and southern NH. This track would give much of SNE a mostly rain event. How much would that stink. We get so cold that the NW flow surpresses the storms to our south and east and then the trough axis moves far enough into the Midwest that the storm is allowed to develop in the OV and track along the Appalachians and we will be too warm for any snow. That would be awful to say the least and I would surely issue a "Suicide Watch" on Eastern Weather Forums for east coasters looking for the first big one of the season.
One thing on our side is the UKMET is giving this storm a much colder track that would mean mostly or all snow for SNE. UKMET was solid on the storm that missed us yesterday and Thursday last week when the GFS was giving us a monster about six days out. I wouldn't trust the GFS yet as this winter it has had a horrendous track record. If anything, the UKMET has been doing much better and should be followed by more. Time will tell. We need this one.
Friday, January 26, 2007
A storm system will try to get its act together along an old stationary front in the Atlantic sometime Sunday morning. How close to the coast and how fast this storm develops along the front will determine how much and if SNE will see any snow out of this one. Right now, the computer models are pretty much all over the place, with the 06z NAM showing a moderate snowstorm in eastern SNE with an inverted trough giving us several inches of fluffy snow. However, in the 12z NAM run, it pushed that heavy band into SW CT and exiting off the Cape and Islands. Both the 0z GFS and NAM didn't even show snow for any of SNE, so we are making progress. Both 6z and 12z GFS outputs were a little more conservative on the QPF amounts as it usually is less bullish than the NAM, but still manages to give SE MA and the Cape a plowable snowstorm with many amounts greater than 2-3". This potential little sneaky storm is still about 72-84 hours away so there will be a lot of changes between now and then, but if there is a need to put out a map, I will be sure to put one out.
After the possible event on Sun-Mon, we will return to more cold weather with highs in the 20's to round off the week with another storm threat along about Thursday of next week. Stay warm.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
I don't think I have ever made a 5 - 6 day without any chance of precipitation. This is just totally crazy. It will feature winter cold, but just not look like winter. It will feel like winter for sure. I don't know what to tell you guys. I wish I could say that next week looks better for our prospects for a decent snowfall. However, I can't. Its just not in the cards. Next week will be another cold week with highs staying in the 20's mostly, but thats about it. There won't be any big storms across the entire country. I guess we SNE'ers can take solice in that we are not the only ones suffering from an extreme snow drought this season. In fact many in the lower 48, excluding the Southern Plains and Rockies States are in a major snow drought. Its not just us, but it feels like it. I'm doing everything in my power to change this dreadful theme of the snowless winter of 2006 - 2007 and have changed the font of the blog posts.
I hope we can do something fast to change this dry pattern as we are nearly into the month of February with just a little over 1" of snow for the entire winter. If not, this season may go down as one of the all - time least snowy BOS winters. Its just plain depressing. What happened to the forecasts in the fall calling for 125 - 150% of normal snowfall for this winter? I honestly don't know. If you do, let me know. My guess in the fall of 50" in BOS this winter looks to be way off and now I am saying that this winter will be more like the winter of '01-02 where we only saw about 15" of snow. We may even come close to the snowless winters in the early 70's where we picked up around 8" of snow for the entire winter. So, as you can tell...I am backing down from my earlier post of 50" of snow down to about 10-20" of snow for the winter. In a normal winter that may seem miniscual at best, but 10-20" this year looks great. That means we still have 9-19" more to fall this winter, in two months.
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
We warm up for Saturday with the slight chance of a snow shower or period of very light snow with temperatures around 30. We will stay seasonable Sunday through Monday with highs in the lower 30's with no real storms in sight. Next week, hopefully we can get into a more stormy pattern with more chances of snow along the east coast.
Monday, January 22, 2007
There will be some snow tonight, but the operative word is "some." Some places will see snow showers, while others see scattered flurries. If you see a steadier snow shower tonight, you may pick up a coating to an inch, but thats about it. Then partly cloudy and then the miss Thursday will usher in the coldest air we've seen in years. Lows on Friday morning will be widespread in the below zero range. It will be battery killing cold. Highs on Friday will be only about 5 to 10 degrees above in SNE and -5 to 5 above in NNE. It will be ridiculously cold with a biting north wind as well, making it feel in the -15 to -30 degree range in the afternoon from South to North. Thereafter, we "warm" up immediately on Saturday with highs around 30 and then Sunday we will be in the 30's.
So, to repeat myself, cold and dry will be the rule and dangerous cold will be here by Friday. I don't think a map is necessary for tonight's event, so don't expect one later on.
Sunday, January 21, 2007
00z: Showing a monster EC storm with heavy snow inland, rain coast, then over to a blizzard. (GOOD)
06z: Backed off with minimal QPF. Storm development offshore. (BAD)
12z: Raging EC Blizzard again. Storm development perfect of I-95 special. (VERY GOOD)
18z: Backed way off. Overall flow much more progressive. (BAD)
00z: Very similar to 1/20 18z. (BAD)
06z: A little better with inverted trough bringing eastern NE some snows. (STILL BAD THOUGH)
12z: Gawd awful. Storm development way off into the Northern Atlantic. Just wind from it. (WORST RUN YET!)
So, as you can see, the GFS is starting to trend in the wrong direction for snow lovers. The European model has been like this for the past day and a half now and yesterday's JMA showed a complete miss as well. So, I am just about to stick a fork in Thursday's once promising looking storm, barring a miracle.
One thing the 12z GFS and NAM shows is a little snow for Tuesday with an upper level low coming through NY State into SNE with a little moisture being thrown off the Atlantic at us. I want to see more runs of the models before really going for this, but it is not out of the question that everyone is fair game for a nice coating to perhaps a couple of fluffy of inches out of this one. Wouldn't that be a nice surprise.
Long range. After Thursday's big miss, we go back into the freezer for next weekend. Any miracles and I will be sure to post something. For now, its a no go on Thursday's storm.
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Dry and cold weather continues through midweek with temperatures generally in the upper 20's to lower 30's with partly cloudy skies. Dull, boring weather is dominating. That may change by the end of next week, I am eye-ing Thursday, especially Thursday night into Friday, for a change of this dull, boring weather, but that is still 5 - 6 days away and that is plenty of time for the forecast to change. As we saw with the last storm, it wasn't totally resolved on the computer models until the thing actually started. For now, I am playing the conservative route and just throw it out there that there may be a potent coastal storm sometime late this upcoming week. Just throw it in the back of your mind.
Well, it looks like I covered the forecast today, and there is nothing much else to talk about. Try not getting blown away today with the wind gusts approaching 50 mph.
Friday, January 19, 2007
The forecast remains quiet and cold, allbeit windy tomorrow with a High Wind Watch as winds may gust to between 45 - 55mph. Windchills tomorrow night may be around zero to 15 below. Cold continues into early next week with a storm heading out south of us on Tuesday that may deposit a few inches on the Capital, believe it or not. Thereafter, we may go into a stormy pattern with a blocking pattern with cold and storms developing off the coast and riding up the coast, so we could get some interesting weather late next week. However, I will be playing the extremely conservative route with this one and not overforecast it, like I have done with the past two storms.
Its official. This winter just plain blows.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Further east we get to Worcester. From Worcester to just inside Route 128, this is where the "jackpot" for this storm will be. Precip will blossom on this area and snowfall could get locally heavy just in time for the morning commute. All said and done, a gloppy, 2-4" is likely, again with an isolated spot picking up 5". Someone N&W of Portsmouth, NH may wind up with closer to 6" of snow.
East of the "jackpot" zone, this is where it is tricky. I have moved it a tad to the east, but am still keeping the city of Boston on the line between the mix and the mostly rain to the SE. Here, you will likely start as snow, quickly turn to rain and may quickly turn back to snow just in time to get the last moderate to heavy band to go through with perhaps a coating to an inch. All said and done here, I put a general 1-2" of snow, but most of it will be washed away. SE of here, you don't have to worry about this one. All rain in the green area. Sorry.
The true "jackpot" with this storm will be northeast Maine, Downeast Maine, with perhaps as much as 10-18" of white gold. Much of Maine at this time from just inland of Portland to Caribou, including Bangor is under a Winter Storm Watch for possibly 6"+. Some will get much more than that and see near Blizzard conditions at the height of the storm. Enjoy it.
Bottom line, the snow moves in overnight in SNE around 1-3AM. It only lasts about six hours, but it could be an intense snow for about 2-3 of those hours, so stay tuned. Further north into NH and ME, expect the storm to move in late morning to early afternoon from south to north, but in northern Maine, the snow may continue into Saturday morning with near Blizzard conditions Friday night. Ski areas will do great with this one. I would not be surprised if one of the resorts picks up a quick 20" of powder out of this one. Again, enjoy it. I will.
More on the extended forecast, which stays extremely wintery with more chances of snow later.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
More details on this storm later.
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Monday, January 15, 2007
Sunday, January 14, 2007
Friday, January 12, 2007
One thing to mention is that when I mean that a wintry mix will be around, especially Sunday night north of the Pike, I mean we will see sleet and perhaps worst of all freezing rain which could reek havoc on the roadways and may cause power outages. Getting a slushy snow on top of it will only mask the ice accretion and we will have problems.
Whatever does fall Monday will stick around for a while as all of next week looks to be FRIGID as I have been advertising for a long time now. Highs on Tuesday will be chilly, mainly in the upper 20's. Wednesday may stay in the upper 10's to around 20 and we could be starting the morning here in SNE, around 0. Central and northern New England will likely be BELOW ZERO to begin the day Wednesday and the Frigid air will persist through the week.
This is our pattern change. Enjoy, I know I will.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
More on the Martin Luther King Day storm potential in the days to come.
Monday, January 08, 2007
After Sunday's possible incredible warmth part II, I see Monday being a transition day with colder, much colder air blasting in from the WNW. I see Monday with highs likely in the mid-upper 30's, but in a few days, you will likely start to see some real cold entering the six day forecast. I am talking highs likely staying in the 20's and lows easily in the 10's and perhaps some 0's in the colder valleys for overnight temperatures. Ie, Norwood, Bedford, Taunton. Watch out.
Sunday, January 07, 2007
Tuesday will be nice and cold with highs around 40. A clipper type system will be moving through the southern Ohio Valley at this time and could be depsiting a good 1-3" of snow over Cincinnatti and western PA, Pittsburgh may get a couple inches of snow out of this one as well. It will cut through West Virginia where it could deposit 3-6" of snow at Snowshoe, WV. The Appalachians will eat what is left of the storm and cause it to weaken and just head harmlessly out to sea. We may see a passing flurry at worst Tuesday night.
Wednesday will be cold with highs in the lower to mid 30's, but we warm right back up again and by Friday we are back where we started, mid 50's with another storm likely heading west of us on Saturday which will propell us well into the 50's on Saturday, could we be talking record breaking heat again next Saturday. Possibly, I do not know the exact record for the 13th, but its possible.
Sunday, out of the forecast, could be mild again, but thereafter, the Arctic air finally looks to be moving in (for good?) next week. We will easily have highs by the middle of next week, struggling to get out of the 20's with lows in the single digits and teens. Northern New England may stay in the single digits for highs during the peak of the cold which is great news for snowmakers in the resorts. Now we just need to get some snow from Mother Nature and we will be back in business.
Thats all for now, more tomorrow.
Saturday, January 06, 2007
We could be in for quite a little rainstorm tomorrow night and Monday with perhaps another 1" to 1.5" of rainfall. On the backside of the storm, northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine may see a quick changeover to snow, after seeing mostly rain from the front end of the storm. The changeover to snow may accumulate to a couple inches in these areas. However in northern Maine, namely Caribou, this event may stay mostly snow and you guys may pick up a good 4-8" of snow, Winter Storm Watches may need to be posted by early tomorrow morning as you may see high end Advisory type snows or low Warning criteria snows. Generally about 6".
This storm ushers in some much colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday, but thats all it will do. We will just have a two day period of average to below average temperatures. Tuesday will be around 40 degrees with high cloudiness late. A few days ago, it looked like a healthy clipper type system would move south of our area and deposit some healthy snows on the order of 2-4" in SNE, but today's runs of the models show a much weaker scenario. Right now I would be that all SNE will see out of this Alberta Clipper is a scattered flurry, but this will be more confined to the South Coast and the Cape. It will be cold Wednesday with highs just getting over the freezing mark.
Since we are not changing the pattern, the cold will be in and out before the next real storm really moves in by Saturday. SW flow will begin on Thursday propelling much of SNE into the 40's. We step up again on Friday and will head into the weekend, basking in the January warmth again, mainly in the lower 50's before another storm cuts west of us and sends us into the "balmy" and tropical air once again. A repeat next Saturday? Geez, I hope not.
This winter is ridiculous. That rubber band has to shoot the other way soon. Right?
Thursday, January 04, 2007
We will cool down for Sunday, the Pats game will be nice and mild. Gametime temperatures will be around 50 and hover around 50 most of the game, under mostly sunny skies. Monday we will cool down some more with rain likely, a cold rain at that with highs generally around 40 or 42. Rain/snow line, if the precip makes it that far will be in southern VT and NH and northwestern MA, in the Berkshires. We continue to cool for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs likely staying in the lower 30's by Wednesday. Won't that be a shock to the system, after Saturday's record warmth.
Looking for the cold to persist? Not this time, it looks like the cold air will be in and out by late week next week we will be back to above normal temperatures by 5 - 10 degrees. I don't think we will see a significant change in the pattern to more persistent cold until after Jan. 18th, or when the NAO looks to be tanking negative in the long term forecasts, which it does not appear any time soon, sadly. We will get winter, i think. Thats all for today.
Tuesday, January 02, 2007
WEDNESDAY: A very nice day, with partly cloudy skies. SW wind 10 - 20 mph. Highs lower to mid 50's.
THURSDAY: Another nice and mild day. SW winds 10 - 20 mph. Highs upper 50's to around 60.
FRIDAY: Wet day overall. Widespread showers and rain. Rainfall may exceed 0.5" to 1.00". All rain into northern New England. Highs SNE lower to mid 50's. NNE highs in the 40's.
SATURDAY: Rain showers tapering early morning. May continue to be cloudy/drizzly through noon. Clouds may break early afternoon which will yield to near record highs. (lower 60's) Record for Boston is 62, we may come very close. Very mild overnight with lows in the middle 40's.
SUNDAY: Looks to be good for the Pats - Jets game. Partly Cloudy skies with increasing cloudiness late afternoon with approaching storm from the SW, riding along a stationary front. Highs in the mid 50's. Gametime temperatures (1 PM) 53 at kickoff to 48 when the Pats win.
MONDAY: Weak storm system riding to our south. May spread rain mainly south of the Mass Pike. Areas north of the Pike may be cold enough for a marginal rain/snow event if the precipitation moves that far north, but I wouldn't bet my life on that. Will likely see just showers south of the Pike with perhaps a more steady, but light, rain on the South Coast and down on the Cape and Islands. Temperatures will likely have a large spread. Highs north of the Pike to southern NH will likely stay in the upper 30's to around 40. South of the Pike ranging from the mid 40's to around 50 down on the Cape and Islands. Turning briefly colder for Tuesday before we warm up all over again.
DISCUSSION: Well, it seems like we are living in some place other than Boston or New England. Ridiculously warm temperatures will continue again tomorrow and for the rest of the week until perhaps Monday. Before that, we may come close to RECORD WARM temperatures on Saturday, especially closer to the coast with highs likely in the the upper 50's to near 60. Boston record for Saturday is 62, so I figured why not, we've been so mild, we might as well get another record out of it. Sunday will "cool" a bit with mid 50's before a cold front meanders with our area for early next week which may give some some wintry precipiation, but a little wet snow or sleet would be all that we would see. No accumulation. Then we go into a little cold spell for Tuesday with normal temperatures, mainly in the mid 30's. Thereafter, we will warm right back up, the way it looks right now into the mid - upper 40's to around 50 to end off the week next week. However, I am still eyeing a potential Pattern Change for the time period of January 16 - 18th, for a change in the jet stream with the Pac Jet becoming more amplified in the West, forcing cold air from the north in Canada, namely the North Pole, to slide in here with a Polar Vortex in northern Canada funneling the cold air into the eastern third of the country with above normal temperatures in the West for a change. So, today the 2nd, I am still all aboard for the PATTERN CHANGE. It just may be delayed a bit from my earlier thinking. Thats all for today, like I have been saying all winter, enjoy the warmth. Its New England, it can't last forever?
Monday, January 01, 2007
Pats game against the Jets looks to be nice at this point, but we will be entering an unsettled weather pattern at the end of this week with many storms riding along a front. Enjoy the warmth this week. As others have backed down from the approaching pattern change for mid - month, I am still forecasting a major pattern change back to more persistent cold for the Northeast, I am not so sure that areas in the Mid Atlantic, south of Philadelphia will get all that cold. We will see. More updates on the incredible warmth, December '06 was the warmest month on record since the late 1800's. Average temperature of 41.7 degrees for the month, shattering the old record.