Tuesday, January 16, 2007


The coldest weather we have seen in two winters is on the way to New England as we speak. This morning temperatures were around 35-40 degrees across eastern SNE. Now temperatures are ranging from the mid to upper 20's in northern MA to lower 30's elsewhere. Its only going down further from here. Tonight temperatures will hit rock bottom, ranging from around 0 in Worcester County to around 10 in the city of Boston. Then tomorrow we will not see highs make it out of the mid to upper 10's all across SNE. The Cape may even see some ocean effect snow due to a strong north wind. Could we be talking about accumulating snow on the Cape tomorrow? I would say a good coating to an inch is possible especially from points Chatham up to Provincetown.
We will see an amazing turn around Thursday with highs rebounding all the way into the lower 30's after morning temperatures will range from 5 - 15 degrees. Then Thursday night, all eyes will be on the South. We will be watching a storm getting its act together south of the coastal waters of North Carolina. This storm will be getting together quickly and will be moving up the coast at a fairly rapid pace. Now the next question is how close will this storm system make it to the SNE coast? I think it will be coming close enough to give inland areas a light to moderate snowstorm. The coastal areas are the wild card with this system as they will be borderline between rain and snow due to the abnormally warm waters off our coastline. Water temperatures off the SNE coast are ranging from the lower to mid 40's, a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Besides that, I think inland areas are in line for a fairly significant snowstorm on Friday, with several inches possible. Many media outlets may be shying away from this right now, but if the GFS and NAM models continue to show what they are showing now, they will not longer be able to play the conservative, safe route and they will have to go out on a limb and say that we are getting this. I must say that NECN meteorologist is alluding to this storm, so I'll give some credit to him. I am sure that Barry Burbank of CBS 4 Boston will be hollering about this storm by tomorrow morning if the maps are still showing it.
I would like to hear what you guys think of this storm and please post your thoughts. Any help forecasting this would be greatly appreciated. If the NAM and GFS keep showing what they are showing by 18z tonight, I will be making my first snowfall accumulation map on this system, which believe it or not, is only two and a half days away. Surprise snowstorm, anyone?

1 comment:

Andrew said...

I am becoming increasingly confident that SNE will see some accumulating snow to the tune of at least a couple inches here on Friday, with the exception being the Cape. What else is new for you guys?

I will be making my preliminary snowfall accumulation map soon. If it is not out by tonight, expect it out no later than 2PM tomorrow.

18z NAM and GFS both giving much of SNE <.25" of liquid, so there will be accumulating snow.

Don't trust those TV weather weenies. They are paid to not upset the herd, so they will not start hollering about this storm until tomorrow PM, the earliest.

However, Matt Noyes, NECN and Barry Burbank will talk about it tomorrow morning if its still threatening SNE. They're good, others will say snow flurries/showers until its over!

More later.