Friday, January 12, 2007

EXTENDED FORECAST TURNS FRIGID

10 comments:

Joel said...

Where exactly do your forecasts target? Boston metro?

Andrew said...

Pretty much...

Andrew said...

Getting a little nervous for folks here in SNE, regarding snow. NAM has been showing warmer runs for the past couple.

Not making any changes yet, but this will have to be monitored if the GFS starts to show this north trend.

Joel said...

I would also watch the likely bust potential of those temperatures you have mid week. No way Boston sees such cold temperatures.

Andrew said...

I agree with you on that. Thursday is WAY too cold...probably a good 5-10 degrees too cold at the present time.

Wednesday...I may raise it 1-2 degrees, but I am pretty confident of temps around 20 BOS metro and lower - mid 20's SOUTH.

TEENS North.

Andrew said...

I was reading Henry Margarsity's Blog and he was saying that he likes his snow accumulations which has the heaviest snow about 30-40 miles north of where I do.

He said if that if he makes any changes he will move the heaviest snow SOUTH.

12z GFS is still looking COLD here in SNE, especially north of the Pike. Sorry, people south of the Pike. Its like they make all these highways, knowing where all the rain/snow line setups will be.

12z NAM still WICKED WARM, with rain through most of the storm through S NH. I think that is a little extreme and GFS may be a bit too cold. All said and done, I pretty much like my map from yesterday.

One of those models, either the NAM or GFS will bust and agree, I would say by tonight or tomorrow morning at the latest.

This storm reminds me of the Jan. 24? storm of last year. Rain/snow line setup was forecasted to be the Mass Pike with it going NORTH. Pretty much all of the storm was SNOW for much of us. This is a little opposite in that the rain/snow line will be going SOUTH...with a similar setup of the rain/snow line being forecasted by the GFS. This storm is getting pretty fun to forecast and I don't think we will start to hear GOOD forecasts until tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night, believe it or not, because the stakes are just so high. BOS Metro could get some rain/sleet via the NAM or we could be dealing with a sizeable snowstorm with 4-6" of the white stuff via the GFS, even CT and RI would pick up a couple inches via the GFS.

Stakes so high...room for error seems infinite and I am getting tired of typing so I will post some more later on this afternoon.

Joel said...

Any forecast for snow accumulations in Boston is foolish. Wintry weather? Yes, but doubtful that it is cold enough for snow. This is an ice situation, with snow to the north.

Andrew said...

No...I don't think it is foolish. I strongly believe that Boston proper will see accumulating snow. I think Boston may have to contend with the ocean effects, but this air mass that is moving in is SO FREAKING COLD that the effects of it will be minimal and we will see if anything...SNOW. We rarely get an ice storm in eastern MA. We will have a period of SLEET Mon early PM, but that will transition to an accumulating SNOW.

If I were a betting man..I'd say the city of BOSTON sees a good 1-2, maybe 3" of snow.

Just NW to the MA/NH border...2-5"

Then southern/central New England picks up a good 6-10"+

A little shift south and we are talking heavy snows further south.

Its either going to be a mainly snowstorm or mainly rainstorm...no ice in Boston.

Joel said...

You will bust badly then. The coast (from Boston through the Cape) is going to have to contend with an onshore wind, completely killing chances of frozen precip. This is an inland storm, unless we see a more northerly wind.

Andrew said...

I'm taking my chances. 18z NAM is much colder...

Waiting on the GFS.

My snow map is coming out shortly.