Sunday, January 21, 2007


It is now looking clearer to me anyway that our Thursday storm that yesterday at this time looked to be an absolute monster, is now going to be getting its act together way too far offshore and just giving SNE very minimal effects. This forecast is still a good 96 to 100 hours away from verifying, but pretty much once we get inside of 84 hours and especially 72 hours, these tracks pretty much get etched in stone one way or another. Basically this is how the computer models worked this thing yesterday through today.

Yesterday's models...

00z: Showing a monster EC storm with heavy snow inland, rain coast, then over to a blizzard. (GOOD)

06z: Backed off with minimal QPF. Storm development offshore. (BAD)

12z: Raging EC Blizzard again. Storm development perfect of I-95 special. (VERY GOOD)

18z: Backed way off. Overall flow much more progressive. (BAD)

Today's Models...

00z: Very similar to 1/20 18z. (BAD)

06z: A little better with inverted trough bringing eastern NE some snows. (STILL BAD THOUGH)

12z: Gawd awful. Storm development way off into the Northern Atlantic. Just wind from it. (WORST RUN YET!)

So, as you can see, the GFS is starting to trend in the wrong direction for snow lovers. The European model has been like this for the past day and a half now and yesterday's JMA showed a complete miss as well. So, I am just about to stick a fork in Thursday's once promising looking storm, barring a miracle.

One thing the 12z GFS and NAM shows is a little snow for Tuesday with an upper level low coming through NY State into SNE with a little moisture being thrown off the Atlantic at us. I want to see more runs of the models before really going for this, but it is not out of the question that everyone is fair game for a nice coating to perhaps a couple of fluffy of inches out of this one. Wouldn't that be a nice surprise.

Long range. After Thursday's big miss, we go back into the freezer for next weekend. Any miracles and I will be sure to post something. For now, its a no go on Thursday's storm.

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