Sunday, January 14, 2007


I have updated the forecasted accumulations. I have downgraded for everybody as there will be just too much darn warm air involved. Yesterday, there were two camps. One for a good snowstorm, the GFS, and one for a good rainstorm, the NAM. Well, this morning, the GFS has cracked under the pressure and now looks just as warm if not warmer than the NAM at the current time. So, for this, plus with the help of fellow blogger Joel, I have decided to downgrade these numbers considerably. Read 'em and weep. Its mostly rain south of the city. A few pockets of freezing rain may be entrenched in some colder places, but they will likely be scooped out. NW of the city and into much of northern and central MA, we will have a brief period of some mixed precipitation. We could get some freezing rain or sleet, but that will change to rain. NW of there, there will be a longer period of mixed precip, so travel could become dangerous. NW of there, expect snow on the onslaught, which will change to a mix then back to snow briefly at the end. Everyone has a chance of some snow at the end to pick up a light accumulation, but the models aren't really showing this ATTM, so I will choose to leave it out. Thats all for now. SNE, you got screwed again!

Thereafter, it turns frigid with highs in the upper 10's to lower 20's on Wednesday, before "warming" to near 30 by late week, before another shot of Arctic cold next weekend.

Stay tuned to the latest information on this developing winter storm for New England and finally GO PATS!


Andrew said...

Give me some credit and a little leeway...this is the first snowfall map I have seen for New England on this storm.

Joel said...

I'll give you the leeway, but if I were you I'd update the forecast, as there is no way this will verify.

Notice winds have swung to the east in Boston, and temperatures shot up to 39 (told you to watch for the onshore!)

Cold air has not sunk as far south as I have imagined, even Keene is sitting at 32. Your snowfall totals in the nothern areas are going to bust HUGE, as Keene may only see a few inchs...futher south may see nothing. I would move all your totals 100 miles to the north, conservatively.

Andrew said...

Yup. And the GFS cracked. D'oh!

Andrew said...

Areas north of the Pike are under a Winter Weather Advisory ATTM and I agree with a temperature at my house of 32.4

Even Boston, with a wind shift dropped 5 degrees to 34 with a north wind.

North of the Pike, is under a WINTER STORM WATCH as well, I think this is a little over the top as I'm thinking it'll be a rainstorm after the initial ice this morning. Who knows?

Joel said...

Cold air is pouring south, with the boundary near a Willimantic-Providence line currently.

I am unsure as to how long this cold will hold on, though, especially near the coast. Interior locations will likely have a tough time warming, but it should be fairly easily to have a quick temp jump overnight on the coast.

Bottom line, I'm not sure what to expect. It's nowcasting...