FINAL CALL (1/10/09 @ 8AM) Overnight the models shifted north with this storm and it now looks like the heaviest of snow will be north of the Mass Pike. I narrowed the bands of snow as well, instead of going with a regionwide 5-10" of snow, I have southern ME to southern NH and parts of northern MA in the band of heaviest snow with accumulations of 7-10". This now looks to be a widespread 4-8" of snowfall from Plymouth, MA to northern New England. South of Boston the snow will be denser and somewhat heavier as mixing could get as far north as BOS-ORH-HFD. North of here, we should stay all snow, but we have to be weary of this coming a bit further north. The Cape and Islands may even change to plain rain for a time during the peak of the storm. This will limit accumulations here to a lighter 2-5" of gloppy snowfall. Still starts from west to east 5PM to 8PM. Ends tomorrow morning and early afternoon around 10AM-1PM. Thats all for now. Enjoy.
FIRST CALL (1/9/09 @ 1PM) Winter storm watches are already up for all of SNE this afternoon. I am tending to agree with the NWS call for a widespread 5-10" of snow across most of SNE. The only wild card is the Cape and the Islands. This is where some mixing with rain could occur, at the very least the lowest ratio snows would be confined to with temperatures in the 31-34 degree range, while areas north to around BOS would see temperatures overnight Saturday in the upper 10s to low 20s, which would provide for light fluffy snowfall. Ratios will likely be in the 12 or 15:1 range here. The snow growth does look fair, but not the type of snow growth we saw with the NYE storm where we had a good deal of easily accumulable dendrites falling from the sky. The winter storm watch will likely be converted to a winter storm warning by late tonight if not by tomorrow morning for all of SNE and maybe even southern NH. I like my 5-10" call, but I have to add that areas along the CT/MA and RI/MA border to the Mass Pike would be the areas that would see the most snowfall from this storm. Right now I have them for a good 8-10", but there is the small possibility we get really good ratios and a tad bit more QPF and then I wouldn't be surprised if someone came in with a foot of snow from this one. Closer to BOS, I think Logan will likely pick up between 7-9", maybe more if we get this CCB band to really get cranking over eastern MA.
TIMING? This looks to be roughly a dusk 'til dawn type of snowstorm with most of the snow falling overnight Saturday. It should be a fun enjoyable storm. The snow will be light and fluffy and easy to move around Sunday morning as it tapers off from west to east. The sun will go to work on Sunday afternoon and black tops should be visible again by later Sunday and cleanup by local cities and towns should be coming to an end and then you will be able to enjoy the snowscape. It should arrive in western SNE between 3-5PM and quickly become moderate to heavy at times. Further east, I expect it to arrive last in the BOS metro area between 5-8PM. Snowfall rates should get up to 1"/hr during the peak of the storm, so travel overnight Saturday is going to be tough to say the least. I advise that if you can have a nice night in, just do it. Lots of motorists had a bad night this past WED with all the glazed over roads in the BOS metro area, I know I did and we don't need more claims to go to our insurance companies. So that's it for now.
One last note is that true ARCTIC air is coming for next week and by next THU and FRI, we could be talking about temperatures that struggle to make 15 degrees on THU and then stay in the single numbers on FRI. Get ready! It's coming. Overnight temperatures below zero for a lot of SNE next week? You betcha!