Friday, August 15, 2008

Tropical Storm Faye is Born

TROPICAL UPDATE- Well, we officially have tropical storm Faye out in the Atlantic. She is a weak TS with max winds of 40 mph sustained with gusts up to 50 mph. She is moving W at 13 mph and is currently interacting with Hispanola which will not allow this system to really intensify much as it heads towards Florida. The computer models this morning showed a GA/SC hit to NYC to eastern New England, but this afternoon, many have shifted much further west, possibly heading into the Gulf of Mexico. It may even interact with the mountains of Cuba which could totally wreak havoc on this system and destroy it totally into nothing more than a disorganized area of thunderstorms and showers with some wind. I have outlined the most likely track for Tropical Storm Faye as of right now. I have moved it west, much further west than originally forecasted yesterday. Here is an update from the NHC.

...Tropical Storm Fay forms...sixth Atlantic storm of the season... Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the Mona Passage became a tropical storm as it moved into the eastern Dominican Republic.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic for the entire north coast of the Dominican Republic and for the South Coast east of San Pedro de macoris. A Tropical Storm Warning is
also in effect for the north coast of Haiti from gonaives northward. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Granma.

At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 18.5 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 35 miles... 55 km...east of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 395 miles...635 km...east-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A general motion toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track...the center of Fay will cross Hispaniola tonight and Saturday...and pass near or over eastern
Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher gusts...mainly over water to the north and east of the center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 kmfrom the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Tides of 1 to 2 feet feet above normal can be expected in the warning area in areas of onshore flow. Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba...with isolated maximu amounts of 12 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...18.5 N...69.4 W. Movement toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

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