FIRST CALL 2/20 @ 7PM: Here is the first call for the snowstorm on our doorstep. I have to stress that I reserve the right to change this map as I see fit through tomorrow. I really could see this go either way, with the heavy snow moving right into Boston or even having all the heavy snow stay off the South Coast and the Cape. Right now, I am playing it the middle of the road to slightly snow biased at this time. Yesterday the models were going crazy with widespread amounts of over one foot south of the Pike. Today they are much more tame and not giving anyone in SNE more than six inches of snow. However, one group of models, the SREF esemble means for the ETA/NAM computer model still brings moderate to heavy snow all the way up to central and northern New England, while the 18z GFS barely has the light snow making it up to Route 2 in Massachusetts for the event. Again, we have a very large spread. I am sticking with my gut and thinking that the models will come north again tonight and lead to this solution. If the 00z model suites come in lower and even more south, then I will lower this amounts. For now, I am keeping this as my first call. Heaviest snow, 6-9", will fall in CT, RI, and SE MA. Then you get to the Worcester and Boston metro areas along the Pike and you will run into 3-6". Once you get north of Route 2, I think amounts will diminish rapidly, only to 1-3" and then once you get into central New England, you will struggle to get a dusing to one inch. Still, this is the first call and it will likely change by midday tomorrow.
Snow starts Friday midday, for those keeping track and the heaviest would be late afternoon and early evening lasting until midnight before tapering sometime early Saturday morning, perhaps midday on the Cape. No mixing issues will be seen with this storm. It will be all snow everywhere, even on the Cape and Islands. Only thing that I could see is a heavier wetter snow down on the Cape and Islands that keep them to 6", while Plymouth, MA sees a drier snow getting closer to 8-9". Stay tuned for updates tomorrow as watches should start going up from the NWS in Taunton.