Sunday, February 03, 2008

Unsettled Few Days...

Monday through Wednesday will be unsettled to say the least coming up for SNE. Tomorrow will start off dry and then we may have to deal with some mixed winter precipitation as WAA moves into the area. The best chance of seeing some light snow and mix tomorrow night will be in western Mass and CT. Here is where I think a quick inch or two of snow will fall before it gets washed away later this week. Tuesday will have the warm front go through the area and we will start to warm with showery type rains and warm temperatures, into the low 50's. SW New England may see temperatures come up to near 60 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Then we all warm up on Wednesday with heavy showers and summer-like thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening, after reaching record highs in the low 60's! Believe it or not! Those showers and thunderstorms will send us back to winter's reality on Thursday with temperatures back in the mid 30's. Then all eyes will turn towards the south as we watch a clipper type storm come out of the Great Lakes, moisture starved and try to redevelop off the Mid Atlantic coast. Some models are hinting at explosive development off the coast, while others are less aggressive and barely have a few showers moving up into SNE. Needless to say, this thing is going to need to be watched closely. We have the United States used model, the GFS, saying little if any storm. Then we have probably the best model of the winter season saying HUGE storm for much of SNE. Thats got me on the fence because this progressive pattern with no real blocking or negative NAO would favor a GFS outcome, no storm, but since the EURO has been so good this winter season, I can't throw it out.

Its a wait and see type of situation and we will have a better grip on the situation by tomorrow night and especially midday runs on Wednesday. Then we can start to peg the ultimate track, intensity and if any accumulation maps should be warranted. Until then, enjoy your Super Bowl Sunday and GO PATS!!!

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