Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Quick Hitting Winter Storm on the Way

6PM UPDATE: The new models have come in and it looks like this storm for tomorrow is going to be a tad slower in leaving and a bit 'wetter' in regards to QPF amounts. I have really upgraded snowfall amounts for tomorrow. GFS and NAM have pretty much gone gangbusters with this storm for tomorrow and NAM actually paints up to 16" of snow for Providence tomorrow, while Boston gets between 10-12". GFS has a wide strip of about 12" of snow across SNE. Even the Cape now looks to be all snow with this event. Hyannis has just as much if not more of a chance of seeing a foot of snow from tomorrow night's storm as Boston. Heavy snow warnings are up south of the Pike right now with winter storm watches in effect north of the Pike into southern New Hampshire. Heavy snow warnings will be soon issued for north of the Pike and it is going to be a doozy tomorrow. Widespread delays and cancellations on Friday.

Timeline....Snow starts from west to east from noon to 3PM. It will end sometime before midnight now. It will be an amazing storm with the peak of the storm during the evening commute with snowfall rates of about 2-4"/hr. That strip near Hartford/Providence/Plymouth to Brockton to get that 12"+.

It's going to be a mess. Stay tuned for later forecasts.

1PM UPDATE: Our first major winter storm of the 2007-2008 season is upon us here in SNE. We have a quick hitting winter storm on the way for tomorrow. You wouldn't know that a big snowstorm was on its way to SNE if you stepped outside today. Temperatures are all the way into the mid 50's down on the southeastern part of the state. Even I am flirting with around 50 degrees this afternoon, whith much of the snowcover vanished with a gusty wind. However, a cold front is in the wings and will drop temperatures into the upper teens and low 20's come morning to set the stage for our first significant snowstorm of the season. This storm will just be an appetizer for what could become a blockbuster of a storm Sunday. I'll tell you, this is what I live for! The models have been going back and forth regarding tomorrow's storm system, but one model hung tough the entire time and never wavered. For weather enthusiasts like myself, we should all give the GFS a round of applause. NAM crapped the bed, but now it is on board with the big storm for tomorrow.

So first of all, winter storm watches and heavy snow warnings are already in effect down in CT and RI...I would expect watches/warnings to make it up to all of Massachusetts and southern NH, except the seacoast of NH, as they will probably get an advisory from their NWS. The rest of SNE will likely get a heavy snow warning/winter storm warning from Taunton NWS.

The timing of this storm is very compact. We will likely see snow break out sometime after dark tomorrow night, say around 7-10PM. It will quickly become heavy. In fact, we will only have a SIX TO EIGHT HOUR period of accumulating snow. You can imagine with the snowfall totals I am forecasting...snowfall rates could approach 1-3"/hr. Visibilities will come under 1/4 mile overnight Thursday, so be careful if you have to be out late. Snow will wrap up before say 5-7AM on Friday morning and I believe most school districts, especially south of Route 2 will be closed. Delays north of there. So enjoy the warmth now and we will take it one storm at a time. As you are shoveling and snowblowing Friday, I will talk about the storm that will probably bring more heavy snow into all of New England come Saturday afternoon and night. Better yet, just wait until Sunday night to shovel.

We've got a busy few days ahead. Enjoy!


Boston, MA 6.5"
Lexington, MA 6"
Worcester, MA 7"
Methuen, MA 4"
Plymouth, MA 8"
Foxboro, MA 10"
Hyannis, MA 6"
Springfield, MA 7"
Salisbury, MA 4"

Providence, RI 9"
Warwick, RI 8"
Newport, RI 5.5"
Coventry, RI 10"

Hartford, CT 7"
Tolland, CT 8"
Bridgeport, CT 5"

Nashua, NH 5"
Manchester, NH 3"

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