Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Boston Poised to Break December Snowfall Record?

It has felt like springtime around these parts the past few days. Highs in the 40's and melting snow. Today was a beautiful day and it classified as a white Christmas even if it was some of the warmest weather we have seen in some time, since Thanksgiving. We have some more mild weather ahead, but we also have snow back in the forecast as well. First, lets talk about tomorrow. Tomorrow will be a day that starts off bright and nice, but cold, which will likely have some black ice on the roadways until say 10AM. So be aware of this. All black ice will quickly melt by noontime as temperatures will be surpassing 40 degrees on their way to highs in the mid to perhaps upper 40's. There will be a light breeze that will make the day feel all the more refreshing. Down on the South Shore and Cape you will notice some dark high clouds start to develop from the ocean as an ocean storm will ever so closely come right up against us without getting us into the action.

POSSIBLE THURSDAY STORM DISCUSSION: That said, there will be a period of light to moderate rain on the South Shore and Cape, with perhaps a rain/snow mix all the way up to Boston, Worcester, and possibly up to say Lowell. This would not accumulate, but we will turn our eyes out towards western New York State at this time to see a band of snow with a seperate system advancing towards New England. Both of these storms will start to 'link' up right over southern and central New England, which will cause snow to develop for much of New England at this time, with perhaps a mixture of rain and snow down on the South Shore and Cape Cod. North of the Pike, Thursday evening and night, perhaps right around the evening rush, the snow will pick up in intensity and start to accumulate. Right now it looks like south-central Vermont and New Hampshire through Maine look to do the best with this storm system, but those accumulating snows could very well make it down to Boston. As you probably know, Boston only needs 1.1" to break the old record set in 1970 for December snowfall, the record being 27.9". Boston currently sits at 26.9", just one inch off the record books. I am not sold on accumulating snow just yet as the usual case is that one model shows nothing while the other gives us a bit of accumulating snow on the tune of a couple inches. Such differences, only 24-48 hours out! So, I will hold off on making any maps just yet. I may make one tomorrow morning/afternoon, as more data comes in. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.

VERY PRELIMINARY CALL: If I had to make a guess at this time. I would say maybe a coating from northern CT/RI along the Mass border. Nothing South Coast and Cape. Along the Pike into Boston up to Route 2, I would go with a light, but sloppy, 1-2" of snow. North of Route 2 into southern-central VT and NH through southern ME, 2-5" of snow is possible. These numbers will most certainly have to be fine tuned tomorrow, and especially tomorrow night as the final data comes in.

This storm will have lots of surprises, so expect the forecast to change. Thereafter, a warm rainstorm is slated for Saturday before we cool off again going into the New Year.

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