Friday, December 14, 2007

First Guess on Nor'easter

Here is my best guess for the weekend storm today. I do believe that all of SNE will experience some snowfall this weekend. Even down on the Cape and Islands. Everyone will start this storm as a quick burst of heavy snow. It will put down a quick 1-3" before the changeover for everyone, more NW. Then the Cape and South Coast will start to change over to all rain and sleet further NW towards Quincy and coastal locations. Temperatures will likely come up to the low 40's on the SE portion of Massachusetts early Sunday morning before the big flash freeze. Further NW including Worcester, Hartford, and Boston's immediate NW suburbs, there will be a longer period of snow, followed by more sleet and then plain rain even here. All said and done a quick 3-6" of snowfall will accumulate. As you continue to head NW, the snow will quickly increase to 6-12" in southern NH and northern Worcester County. Here a mix with if not total change to sleet/rain is possible too. You will have to head into Upstate NY, VT, northern NH and ME to see all snow. Here the possiblilty exists for a healthy 12-20" of snowfall. This storm reminds me of the Valentine's Day snowstorm of last year. It will be a similar setup. Boston got about 2" from that one, but nearby suburbs quickly picked up 6" of snowfall. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see how strong the cold is associated with the Arctic front.

Warning...if this storm tracks a little farter SE, push that 6-12" into Boston. It it travels a little farther NW, then we will see mainly rain here in eastern New England. Right now, I like the track where it is. The GFS has been extremely consistent in this track for a couple days now and I feel this is the best forecast right now.

Update tonight or tomorrow if any watches or warnings are to be posted by the NWS.

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