Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Stormy Wednesday...Major Heatwave Looming?

The nice couple of days that we have had will be all but a distant memory come later this week. The rain and thunderstorms that I have been barking about for a while now are poised to move into southern New England tomorrow, moving first into western and northern New England and then moving towards the south later in the afternoon. The storms could actually be rather strong to severe in northern and western New England in the early to mid afternoon hours, but they should weaken somewhat as they move southeast and move in on Boston and Providence and eventually down to the South Coast and Cape and Islands. By then the showers will be nothing more than showers with a few rumbles of thunder and locally heavier downpours. This will continue much of tomorrow night, occaisional showers and downpours and the rain will slowly start to add up on us and actually help Boston's rainfall deficit from June 1st, which is nearly 2-3" at the current time. Within this week, Boston should at least add a couple inches of rainfall, if not a little bit more. The next rainiest day looks to be Friday afternoon and evening with a similar setup as Wednesday. The rain may linger on the South Coast early Saturday before I hope we can at least salvage Sunday for vacationers going to the Cape and beaches.

No fear for beach-goers though. Although the middle and end of this week may not be a good beach or vacation week, things may be looking up, and WAY up for later next week. Well, if you have been watching the news lately and have been seeing the West absolutely bake in triple digit temeperatures and the wildfires have been rampant, that heatwave is about to make its move and make it towards the populated areas east of the old Mississippi, sometime later next week.

Now details with this potential significant heatwave are still primative, but things are starting to look like it will get really hot around this parts. This is a graph, temperature outlook for the next 8-14 days. As you can see, the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast will really start to bake. Some computer models are pushing this massive blog of hot air towards the Northeast by the middle of next week and others hold it off for another 2-4 days. Either way, it will get here and it will get HOT. I was looking at the extended outlook for Chicago, a city that will see the heat before us by a couple days. Well, they are under a Flood Watch tonight and they are seeing "cool" temperatures, mainly in the 70's the next few days. But by later next week, early next week, they will start to bake. Temperature forecasts for them get into the 90's by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week and the far outlooks keep them in the 90's, mid to upper 90's as a matter of fact, for the next 7-10 days consecutively. Overnight lows will likely struggle to get below the mid 70's to lower 80's later down the stretch for Chicago.

Now I am not say that Boston will see a 10 day heatwave of temperatures in the upper 90's with overnight lows around 80, but we will get temperatures to above to well above average once we get this unsettled pattern we are dealing with right now over with, which should be early next week, just a Chicago and the other Great Lake cities start to really heat up. This goes into the end of July and the first part of August could be quite warm to say the least as well.

All the while this is going on, the extensive heatwave that has been going on in the intermountain West will start to break down, if not just move east by 1000 miles and the jet will back into the Pacific Northwest and deliver a couple summer "winter-like" storms into cities like Seattle and Portland, Oregon, making a rainy part of their dry season. One storm that will hit them later this week, will actually carry rain from cental and northern California to Seattle. Temperatures will be in the 60's and 70's as well. The intermountain West will still be hot, but places like Salt Lake City will not see consecutive days of 100+, instead they will drop to around 90. The 90's and 100's will be repressed.

All that heat will be coming East. Get ready, get set, its almost our turn.

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