Latest information suggests that many of our BBQ and outdoor plans for the Fourth have been revived. After yesterday's post, the computers kept pushing back the timing of the rainfall by hours and hours. It now looks like the daylight hours of the Fourth will be mostly if not totally dry for much of SNE and even CNE. Far NNE near the Canadian border may have showers, but that would be the worst of it. Rainfall with the front will not make it into the Boston and SNE area until much later in the night of the Fourth or even the early morning hours of the 5th.
That said, it does look like we will have a very rainy day on the 5th, Thursday. It still looks like a good 1-2" is on the way for SNE. The rain will be pushed back until Thursday, but that means we will not totally clear out until Friday or Saturday. The rain will become more showery on Friday and Saturday with warmer more humid air invading into New England. Temperatures will likely be in the lower 80's by Friday and into Saturday, but showers will be prevalent and some could be heavy with a few thunderstorms. With this type of forecast, we cannot be sure of what is going to happen until 24-36 hours out, a good point made by meteorologist Matt Noyes on the morning NECN weather forecasts this morning. At this time of the year, the computer models aren't as solid with the well defined storms of the wintertime. We have to give the computer models a better margin of error and hold off on making concrete forecasts until literally the day before, and even then with showers and thunderstorms forecasted, the forecasts can't be 100 percent certain.
That said, it looks like our prayers have been answered and we'll be saved for the Fourth.