Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Chantal Forms...More Development Possible Within 36 Hours

Last night, TD 3 was raised in status to a Tropical Storm. T.S. Chantal is rocketing to the northeast and will likely become extra tropical within the coming days. Chantal now has sustained winds of 50 mph.

...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS...BUT HEADED FOR COOLER WATERS...AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 305MILES...495 KM...SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT 660 MILES...1060 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE INFORWARD SPEED TODAY AND TONIGHT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECASTDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CHANTAL COULD LOSE TROPICALCHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KMFROM THE CENTER.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...40.2 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT500 PM EDT.

The area of disturbed weather shown in the yellow box still is showing some signs of development, possibly within the next 36 hours, but it does not look as good as I thought it may be early this morning. Later this afternoon and evening there will likely be another flare up of storms and we will see if these storms will be able to manage the storm system and aid in further development.

I will try to get out a SNE forecast soon, but I will tell you that we will start to warm up and by late week we will likely be in the 90's.

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