Wednesday, January 09, 2008

WACKY COMPUTER MODELS: Next Week's Storm Uncertainties

Today was another day of highs over 60 degrees. Two days in a row of unseasonably warm weather here in SNE. Yesterday Boston hit a record of 67 degrees, while today this were one degree shy of a record at 63 degrees for today's high temperature. We will not get back to this level of warmth tomorrow. Tomorrow will be more like 50 degrees for a SNE high. Some places may make mid 50's but that would be about it. Then we cloud over tomorrow night and the heavy rain commences for Friday morning. It will be a very wet morning. All said and done once the rain tapers late Friday afternoon, a new 0.5" to 1.00" of rain will have fallen, wiping out any snow that you may still have in your backyard leftover from the incredible warmth. Then we stay rather mild for January on Saturday, mid 40's, before we finally start to cool down on Sunday.

That storm discussion is going to have to wait until the computer models start to show some agreement. Right now they are all over the place. One computer model takes the storm west of Boston and is trending NW, while others are still keeping the storm really weak and just dumping the batch of precipitation out over the Atlantic off the SC coast and never gets its act together or any amplification. Needless to say, one reliable model has this thing traveling so far S&E that we would see partly cloudy skies, while another brings it so far inland that we would see some brief snow/mix to rain and mild rain at that. Its about a 400-500 mile difference in storm tracks only five days out. Not very good and why talk of this potential storm would be irresponsible at this point in time. I hope that later on we will start to see agreement with this wacky computer models one way or another so we can start to make a forecast with some confidence. Right now I have very little confidence with this forecast. Hopefully, in a good world, by 12z Friday we will start to see some congruety. This weekend, namely Saturday should be a day when the models will be locking into their final solutions. Check in then for an official forecast regarding this storm.

Hopefully I can say more about it tomorrow. That said, there is a weak clipper that will be moving through the Ohio Valley later on and could bring a round of light snow north of the Pike on Tuesday. Thats so far out that I won't say more than that.

Until tomorrow.

No comments: