Saturday, January 12, 2008

UPDATE: Final Call; Major Monday Nor'easter

SUNDAY AM UPDATE: I have upped totals for many areas. I upgraded extreme northern New England by a few inches. Also, I pushed the 8-15" amounts down to the Cape Cod Canal where I think eight or so inches of slop is not out of the question. Most notably, I have raised to heaviest area of snow to 12-20". This storm is looking like it will be a one in a few years storm here in the Boston area; a classic Nor'easter. The one thing that does not look that bad with this storm will be the winds and the coastal flooding. Winds will gust to 40 mph along the shore during the storm and coupled with a new moon, there won't be much coastal flooding with this storm. Maybe a little splashover for folks along the coast. The big story with this storm will be the snow and the duration of the storm. It will start after midnight tonight and not end until sometime after the evening commute and even after that there will be bouts of light snow all the way through most of Tuesday with a clipper system. So you can bet it will be a very wintery week. Watches are up for all of New England and we even have warnings up for CT, RI, and south of the Mass Pike now. All these watches will turn to warnings later this afternoon, as its just a formality to wait. Go to the supermarket today for milk and bread and an extra shovel if you need one and then sit back and watch the snow fall from the comfort of your home tomorrow.

SATURDAY PM DISCUSSION: Here is my second call for the Monday storm that I have been beating to death the past few days. I think I have pegged where that heaviest band of snow will develop. It will develop in an area where the most people live. It will set up shop from Hartford to Worcester to Boston to Portsmouth, NH and south of Portland, ME. Here is where I think the heaviest snow will fall. A general 10-18" of snowfall, major crippling accumulations on the high end. Right now if I had to peg a spot for seeing a lolly-pop 18-20" total accumulation I would say Northern Worcester County to southern NH. For most of New England outside of the heaviest band, a general 8-12" looks good. This will encompass Plymouth, MA northwestward. Western Massachusetts will also be in this band of moderate to heavy snow amounts. Central and northern New England will see this as well. This will be very good for the ski resorts as many have been reporting icy conditions during the past few days because of the mild temperatures and rainfall. If you go on the South Coast of RI and north of the Canal to Plymouth, this is where I think there could be a period of mixing with some rainfall, which will hamper accumulations and make for a heavy wet snowfall. A good 3-6" is plausible here. The same can be said where you are removed from the storm in extreme northern New England and western Maine. The Cape will now see mostly rain from this mixing with snow and sleet at times before ending as a period of snow towards the end of the storm. Therefore, I will go for a general 1-3" down on the Cape and Islands because of the mainly rain solution. I am liking this map and will keep it as my final unless it looks like this storm will really change course, which looks unlikely ATTM. Its going to be a major Nor'easter folks. Boston is going to get dumped on!

More later tonight should there be any updates and will have all the latest on the watches and warnings that will likely go up tonight or tomorrow morning and afternoon. It will be a wild ride.

No comments: