Monday, October 08, 2007

GFS Calls for Northern New England Snow this Weekend!

The GFS is calling for weekend snow across parts of northern New England Saturday night and into Sunday with a coastal system affecting our area. First we have to get through many dreary days and one bonified rainstorm on Wednesday, with rainfall amounts approaching one inch of water, which is desperately needed here in SNE. Then we coast through the rest of the week mainly dry, but very gloomy with highs generally in the upper 50's to around 60. Then, you can basically flip a coin for the weekend forecast. The GFS computer model is the outlier which makes a forecast for a SNOW/RAIN mix for parts of northern New England later on the day Saturday, five days out. Not fifteen. This is getting into our view of managable time. However, none of the other computer models are calling for any type of snow involved in the coastal storm this weekend.

However, taken for what the 18z GFS is going for, we we see rain overspread all of New England during the day Saturday. It would quickly become heavy for all of New England with the low pressure system taking shape near Nantucket, deepening quickly. Then it would slowly move into the Gulf of Maine and this is when the GFS changes the rain to a period of heavy snow in the northern White Mountains and much of Maine. It looks like there is a timeframe of about 3-6 hours of seeing snowfall with temperatures very crucial, lower 30's. Even if surface temperatures were just below freezing, the snow would have a tough time sticking to the ground, plus we were seeing temperatures near 90 degrees even up there the past several days. It would all come to an end sometime Sunday, leaving all of us mighty cold.

We will need to keep an eye on this as it is the GFS. It will be mighty interesting to see what the NAM model is depicting tomorrow night at this time! SNOW is back in the forecast.

No comments: