Friday, January 20, 2006

My Current Thinking...


Here is my current thinking as to what may be happening with this late January "storm" this Monday afternoon and night. Currently, local media outlets are forecasting a light mix of rain/sleet/snow, but with each new run of the computer models, this storm just keeps moving further and further south. Some computer models are barely making the light snow and flurries band this far north around Brockton, MA; Putman, RI; and Hartford, CT. Down south on the Cape will see a very light mixture of rain and snow. We are not talking about a whole lot of precipitation here. Maybe a trace to a tenth of an inch of liquid north of the dark gray line and .1" to .2" of liquid to the south on the Cape. In normal situations this would equate to 1-2" of snow, but temperatures at this time will be in the mid to even upper 30's, limiting any accumulation and where it could stick to the north of the dark gray line, where temperatures will be in the lower 30's on Monday afternoon, there just will not be enough precipitation to see any of these flurries amount to anything. So, at this time, very early out, I am calling for NO ACCUMULATION, just some wet pavement on the Cape and South Coast and maybe a skim coating of snow around Providence, RI.

Again, nothing to write home about...

3 comments:

Joel said...

Models have begun trending northward, and I expect that to continue. Looks for accumulations possible, but in a very small band. North of this precip will be hard to come by and south of this will face mixing issues. Mixing is possible SE MA and S RI. Advisory criteria should be met in some part of SNE, probably N CT.

Eric said...

Hey Joel, thanks for posting, first one. lol

Yeah I just looked at the new run of the ETA and it shows a good .25-.5" of liquid all the way up to southern New England most on the South Coast with over .5" according to the new run. Can't wait to see the new run of the GFS...praying and hoping for a shift northward.

I learned one thing, no matter how bad your spirits are for snow, don't jump the gun too early and start posting a snowfall accumulation map 3 days before the storm...but hey, your the only one reading it and you know whow these computer models are really finicky.

Other people in my family wouldn't appreciate that. lol

Hoping for a trend farther north...

Eric said...

The QPF has had the same run all this time as the new ETA, just decided to go against it because it has been that kind of winter as you know.

Sunday is the anniversary of the Jan. 22 Blizzard. Here, where I live we picked up 27.5" with drifts well over 3 feet. What a difference a year makes. This year we are getting excited about the possibility of a couple inches of snow...