Thursday, November 16, 2006

Windswept Rain Tonight

Its past the halfway point of November and we are still seeing temperatures near 70 in Taunton, MA. Here NW of Boston, it is currently in the mid 60's with Boston checking in at 68 degrees. Will this last? Well, for the next 24-30 hours, it will last. Tomorrow looks to be like another mild day with highs in the mid 60's after morning rain. Tonight we are under a FLOOD WATCH, everywhere except SE MA. Expect rainfall to be on the order of 1-3", possibly 4"+ tonight.
There could be localized flooding during this timeframe as most of the rain will likely fall in a 4-7 hour time frame.
The link to the side is from WHDH BOSTON and shows just where the FLOOD WATCH affects. As you can see southeastern MA and southern CT is not under this FLOOD WATCH, but that does not mean that you will escape the rain. It just means that the heaviest, flooding rains, will probably not occur over you. Still, expect 1-2" of heavy rain tonight.
Looking down the line towards this weekend, Saturday, although cooler, still looks to be a tad above normal on the high temperature department. Highs should be in the mid 50's. Middle 40's are likely here Sunday and Monday. Then Monday night, there could be a coastal storm quite close to us at this time. It will be quite cold at this time with temperatures likely in the 30's. Computer models are showing that this storm system could throw some precipitation into eastern and southeastern New England at this time, possibly as a rain/snow mix. This is so far out, 4-5 days, and the track will likely change with each new run of the computer models which come out every 6 hours, that it is too early to forecast anything or side any which way. It would not be professional. But since this is not a professional site, I can tell you what exactly I am thinking.
I believe that the models will bring this closer and closer to the west, but then keep it far enough out to sea that it does not really have any effect on us here in Boston. Also temperature composites will likely come up from the borderline rain/snow line, safely above the critical 0 degrees C at 540 mb. So, expect a few sprinkles or a shower down on the Cape, perhaps just on the Islands.
Thats all for today...PEACE.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Nice site. You have been posting for a long time and I had no clue. You go all the way back to last winter.

Whats up with this storm thing for early next week?

Any snow?

Andrew said...
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Anonymous said...

RAY-Thanx Eric, it is a cool site. Yeah Andrew, this is not even an event worth talking about IMHO.

E.H. Boston said...

It's Eric. Yup I've known of Foot's Forecast. I had been posting there as eric the past few months, but really was known as E.H. Boston like now.

This coastal storm situation is very finicky...

NECN has it in their 5 day..kinda...with a NE avg. high of 36 Tuesday.

Flick to WHDH and they have SUNNY skies and 48.

Flick to CBS4 and they have a 30 percent chance of a little cloud with something coming out of it, but he failed to mention it in his forecast.

THANKSGIVING..I have seen highs range from 58 WHDH to 55 CBS4.

Drew whats going on???

Andrew said...
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Andrew said...

Well, your guess is as good as mine, because with the newest run of the GFS, there is no more storm...

Well, there is but it keeps it down south off the FL/GA coast and sits it down there for a while before sending it up the coast after several days, letting us warm up again and having a mild late week rainstorm, probably after Thanksgiving and the football games.

It does look to get stormy around these parts later down the stretch with better chances for snow, but that is more like 10-14 days out at this point, so can't be too sure of that panning out.

Check back this weekend and we'll probably have this storm/no storm thing all ironed out.

E.H. Boston said...

HOWEVER...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN OCEAN STORM LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALL THE MODELS BASICALLY
AGREE UPON A STRONG PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. AFTER THAT THOUGH THE MODELS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN
NOW HAS SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOSTON TO
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. THE UKMET LOOKS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT MAY BE A
DAY LATER BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CUTOFF TO THE SOUTH.
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FURTHER OUT TO SEA THAN THE
OPERATIONAL RUN. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z CANADIAN HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
THE COAST WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE STORM OUT TO SEA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
BEING ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. IF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAKES IT INTO
OUR REGION...IT WILL PROBABLY BE RAIN ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WITH WINDS BLOWING IN OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN. IF IT MAKES IT
ANY FURTHER WEST THOUGH IT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR WET
SNOW.

Anonymous said...

RAY- e.h., that discussion is from earlier today, but even then I could have told ya that there will be no storm, the 0z as Andrew points out cements this notion. I would be VERY weary of putting much stock into any ideas of extended cold until well into Dec.

E.H. Boston said...

Ok, now I am officially not feeling good about this upcoming winter. Boston having a morning temperature of 68 degrees on November 17th is just not even close to normal.

Seems like whenever we get a cooldown and we see it in advance, you look 2-3 days past it and its back to way above normal again.

Oh, and the storm...

NEXTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!