Saturday, November 18, 2006

Playing it Conservative

We finally had a normal November day around these parts. First one in quite a while. Tonight will be a quickie post, hopefully I can get a bigger one out sometime early next week. There is nothing to talk about and lots to talk about. The nothing part is the forecast for the next week. I guess it is good that there will be little "weather" across the nation this week as it is a busy holiday travel week. The one exception may be down on the SE coast, near coastal Georgia and the Carolinas. The coastal storm we have been advertising and barking about on this page, Eric, Ray and me, will develop. Just it will stay down there and crank up the wind, rain, and seas for them. It may try to come up the coast later on in the week and at this point with the GFS, it could throw a few rain showers on the Cape and the Islands by sometime Friday or heading into next weekend.
Temperatures are on the downswing right now. Tomorrow will stay in the 40's and it will stay that chilly all the way until about Thanksgiving, as temperatures will slowly start to moderate, ahead of another storm that will likely cut to the west of us again, bringing in mild, rainy conditions later next weekend possibly, before cooling down again and likely warming up ahead of another storm upstream. The cycle continues.
Ray...thanks for stopping me getting carried away with the El Nino stuff and blaming the Nino for all of the warmth across the Lwr 48. Relative warmth that is. It is a variety of factors, but mainly whenever you get the jet stream slamming into the PNW, ie Seattle, storm after storm that pummels the coastal plain with inches upon inches of rain and mountains with feet upon feet of snow, it throws that mild Pacific air across the nation...limiting any cold air and any Arctic invasions. Until this stops, instead of getting Arctic Canadian cold we will continue to get "Polar" Canadian cold, which is not as cold/weaker, and does not last as long/modifies faster. In the next 7-10 days, I do not see this pattern switching all that much so, I am going with the "conservative" forecast of sticking with "What you see, is what you get." Once it switches though, OH, we'll know it.
Kickoff: Partly Cloudy 35
Halftime: Partly Cloudy 37
End: Partly Cloudy 39
Thats all for tonight.


Anonymous said...

ERIC-Still waiting on that first flake/flurry...Last year was Oct. 29th. We actually got 1.5" of snow that day.

Year before that was Nov. 12th. That was a 6.5" snowstorm.

Ironically, our earliest snowfalls, in 2001-2002 winter, we had our first flakes on Oct 8th. That lead up to one of the most disappointing Boston winters EV-A-H!

WINTER 2006-2007...

NOVEMBER 18th..and waiting.

Anonymous said...

JEN- Nice site Andrew. I am starting to get a little nervous with our first snow still not here yet too Eric. Usually here west of Worcester, we have had at least a flurry by now...nothing yet where I live.

BTW, I remember a few years ago we got that storm the day before Thanksgiving. That was a Thanksgiving to remember. All the fields were frozen for the football games. I don't remember the year. Maybe one of you guys do.

When do you think the real cold will come in and stick around? I am hoping for sometime around Christmastime.

Thanks and I really look forward to reading more of from your website in the weeks and months to come.

Andrew said...

Hi Eric and welcome to the site Jen.

Yes, Eric, it is starting to feel like we are never going to get our first flakes. But you have to remember, you said it yourself, an dull winter 01-02 had the earliest first flakes. In 04-05 winter we had our first flakes more than a month later and Boston racked in more than 86" of snow with s
some parts of MA over 100-110" of snow, mostly on the Cape oddly enough. So as you can see, there is no correlation between first snow and the outcome of that particular winter. Its not that simple.

Yes Jen, I do remember that Travel Day Snowstorm. It was Nov. 2002. I remember going to my son's football game and everyone was dressed like eskimos and they had the field plowed, free of the 6" of snow we got, and it was COLD.

When the real cold is coming...can't be sure, but the consensus is mid-late December...right in time for the Holidays..wouldn't that be nice.

Thats all for me tonight..adios till tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Andrew, you mentioned under the previous comments section the "similarities" to '02...not really. The Pacific is MUCH worse than that year, the Pacific was as good as it gets that year!! We are gonna need a negative NAO this year, and FWIW, the north shore around the Salem, Danvers, Peabody area was a secondary jackpot in the winter of '04. It was not only the cape, I actually ended up with 107.5" here in Wilmington!

Andrew said...

We faired pretty well here in Woburn too. I measured 27.5" for the Blizzard Jan 22. I can't believe that Melrose picked up 38" right down the road.

And yes, I know that the winter of 2002-2003 was the most ideal for a similar setup with snow.

North Shore was rocked that year...including Wilmington. I should have said the Capes..we ALL were rocked that year.

Andrew said...

Looking at the new runout of the GFS, I hate to say it but there could be RAIN around here, especially south of the Mass Pike. But even farther north it could turn rather wet.

I am going to watch this pan out and hopefully the high pushes this persistant storm out to sea.

Going to a christening now, hopefully will get a post out later today/tonight.


Andrew said...

Going to keep the rain out of the forecast for now...

No post tonight.

Andrew said...

27-17 PATS was way off, but I'll take the 35-0 win any day of the week.

Andrew said...

Sorry for not posting in a while, hopefully can get one out tomorrow.

Looks like rain is a possibility, esp. south of the Pike on Thanksgiving durning the games Thursday morning. The rain will get everyone in the afternoon with highs in the upper 40's.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- I am not pro, but I think that the Canadian Arctic cold that has been north of the border may be getting poised and could invade us within the next 1-2 weeks from the Northern Plains spreading to the south and east.

The cold may not get here until December 1-4.

There will be other little coolspells too, but they will be insignificant.

Andrew said...

New forecast calling for an ALL DAY NOR'EASTER.

Expect heavy rain starting late tonight and ending tomorrow night.

Rainfall: 0.5" to 1.5"+
Winds: 20-40mph GUSTS: 45mph

Friday: Clearing 50's
Saturday: Dry 55-60
Sunday: Dry 60-65
Monday: Dry 50-55

More on the forecast later.

Anonymous said...

RAY-Notice a trend...any guesses?

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Ray, I think I am noticing this trend. It's kind of obvious. All of these East Coast storms. Seems like we get 1-2 a week.

Plus, when it looks like they may go out to sea, they move back at the last second and give us a storm.

Once we get some cold air involved...I hope everyone has their shovels and snowblowers tuned up nicely.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- P.S. The Arctic air will be here in 8-9 more days.

Enjoy the "warmth."

Anonymous said...

JEN- Eric, Arctic air? How cold? I looked at the forecast and its 50's and 60's for the next 7+ days.