Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Major Storm Brings Major Changes

Things are starting to get interesting in the weather department this week. What a crazy week. Temperatures are ranging from about -25 degrees for morning lows in Montana to highs in the upper 80's in south Texas. Seattle, WA has become the arctic tundra with snowstorm after snowstorm, they are under another Winter Storm Warning for up to a half a foot of snow tonight, the Southern Plains from Dallas, through Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and southern Michigan will all be hit with a major snow and icestorm with this latest storm from tonight through Friday. Snowfall accumulations could range from 1-3 inches in Dallas, 4-6 inches in much of Oklahoma and Kansas, and there may be a "jackpot" somewhere from just north of St. Louis to just south of Chicago, hopefully, of a swath of snowfall approaching 10-15 inches.

First, tomorrow is going to be in the upper 60's to around 70 in, no, I mean Boston tomorrow. It will be a very balmy springlike feeling day. Morning lows will start around 60. A good jumping pad. Friday is when the rain will move in with up to one or two inches of soaking rain. It will still be mild with highs early around 60. It will turn much colder Friday night with any rain changing to snow across the northern New England mountains where a few inches of snow may accumulate on the highest peaks. That will clear and then lead us into a chilly Sunday with highs in the middle 30's.

Then comes the big story for Monday. It is up in the air. There is a 50/50 chance of seeing a SNE special for Monday. Right now, I am going with the pessamistic viewpoint with it coming close enough to us for a little light rain and light snow. However, with this fast, west to east flow, I do not see the storm really "bombing" out until it is way past SNE. I do NOT think that we will see much if any snow out of this one in the Boston metro area. The pattern we are in is very progressive with fast moving storms. I do not see this storm moving slow enough to gain enough strength for a major snow or rain Monday. With this progressive fast moving pace of storms, I think it will jug along in the jet and spread a shield of organized spotty precipitation. Southeastern MA and the Cape will probably see steady light rain or drizzle. The cold will be ousted by the warm marine water off the Atlantic. Keep in mind that the temperature of the water in Boston Harbor today was 50 degrees. North and west of Boston, I think that there will be wet snow and flurries with perhaps a skim coating. If the storm were to strengthen into a monster and hit us, warm air from the ocean would likely keep it all rain south and east of Boston. It would turn any snow to rain quickly from Boston northwest to Route 495 and Worcester. Jen, you would probably see accumulating snow. Ray and myself around Woburn/Wilmington would probably see a quick bout of snow changing to rain then maybe a quick shot of snow at the tail end?

So, for now keeping the chances of this storm very minimal, only posted a 40 percent chance in the FIVE DAY. Keep tuned though as you know that these storm's have a mind of their own. We are still FIVE days out. Thats all for now, so enjoy the tropical like warmth tomorrow and get out there and play catch or go for that jog around the pond.



Andrew said...

Sorry to say it guys, but the new run of the GFS is taking this storm pretty far out to sea. We will see if this trend continues. If it does, I will have to put sun back into the forecast.

I'll watch.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Ahh, the storm got the better of my hopes up really high for this one. Thought it was our time, since the whole country has already seen snow or is seeing it today. TX to MI.

As Ray would say...NEXTTTT!!!!!!