Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Thursday Night - Friday Snow Station by Station
These are a few snowfall accumulation forecasts for tomorrow night through Friday morning from a few local Boston news stations. The first one is from WCVB News Channel 5. The middle one is from WHDH 7 Boston. This forecast is from Pete Bouchard. He generally is very good with forecasts, but he likes to side with extremes and has not done a very good job snowfall forecasting this winter. The last one is from Fox 25 News Boston from Kevin Lomanoawiz, sorry if I butchered his name, who is one of the best winter storm forecasters around these parts. He is usually very good with his forecasts and is not afraid to change his forecasts with dramatic changes in model runs and won't wait for the NWS statement, that most tv forecasters wait for. My forecast is on the next post and I like that one for now. I'm not afraid to change my forecast and if I have to, I will before the storm starts tomorrow.
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I have to tell you, I am very nervous that this storm has BUST written all over it.
Right now I am going to stick with my forecast under the headline, March Roars in Like a Lion.
Reasons why I have problems with snowfall greater than 1-3" in SNE is that we will be just on the line of rain/snow, on the models currently. Also afternoon highs today were a shade above the forecasted highs. Forecasted upper 30's...got into the low 40's.
Another reason is that the March sun angle is high and the sun is warm. Most winter precip will be in during the night, but that sun is warming the pavement this afternoon. Marginal temps and warm pavements will yield not a lot of accumulation, unless the temperature gets into the mid 20's tonight, but I think Boston will bottom out at 30 to 31 lowest.
Another reason is that this storm is not going from warmer to colder during the storm...the day after...like the VD storm. In fact, Saturday will likely be in the lower 50's in SNE. That is truly warm.
I know that the NWS has a Winter Storm Watch for north of the Pike, excluding the coast for 4-7" of snow. I don't think this will pan out however, for the reasons listed above.
I have seen this scenario before and it always busts like this. So, if you are a student in SNE, hoping for a snow day tomorrow, I just don't see how it will happen. I think this forecast is going to bust and we will see a brief period of snow in SNE that accumulates 1-2", maybe 3" in SNE then quickly to sleet and then plain rain with highs in the 40's during FRI PM in SNE. The Cape may reach the 50's for highs.
Something to watch def, but I am thinking all these forecasts will bust. Pete Bouchard's from last night looks good to me right now.
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