Sunday, February 11, 2007

First Call Snow Map

Its late and I'm tired. I have been watching the models and their trends all day today and its looking good for a major east coast storm. Historic? Possibly, but this storm will be by no means a crippling snowstorm for a wide area.

Let me break down the snowfall map. The green area in southern Virginia is a plain rainstorm. Further north, the red area is the area of great concern for a fairly significant icestorm. Ice accumulations of 1/4" to 1/2" are possible here, but it would most likely be a sleet scenario. We now get into the pink area. This is the outlying area of snow around the heavier bands inland. Snowfall in this color will be light to moderate. I would expect a 3-6" snowfall in the southern areas of this color. In the north, northern New England, 2-4" is what I am thinking right now. This snow here would be a very fluffy type snow.

Now we start to get into the meat and potatoes. The dark pink/purple area is where moderate to heavy snowfall accumulations are probable. This area includes just north of DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston, and Portland, ME. Accumulations here look to be on the order of 6-12". Fluffiest snow with ratios of up to 20:1 will be away from the coast.

The next darker purple inside the other one is where a band of even heavier snow is likely. This is the jackpot area that will likely see the heaviest snow in this entire bonanza. A list of cities include York, PA, Allentown, PA, Hartford, Springfield, Worcester and Portsmouth, NH. A new are of this snow may occur in Downeast Maine. Accumulations here will range from 12-18" with isolated areas receiving up to 2 feet, especially in the white zone near York, PA.

Next Update tomorrow night.


Andrew said...

Watching the trends...GFS and NAM bringing the low very close to the coast and cutting through SNE.

Not too sure that is what will happen. Not good considering climo of these coastal lows that develop near the Capes of NC. I think by 18z tonight or 0z tonight, we will start to see a somewhat SE movement on the models. Still 2 days lots will likely change.

I will be getting some of my thoughts out later tonight...probably not out until 9-11PM. Hold tight...its going to be a bumby ride!

Andrew said...

I'm holding off on my SECOND CALL for now. Not much agreement.

Upcoming schedule...

SECOND CALL...tomorrow night
FINAL CALL...Tuesday afternoon