Wednesday, December 03, 2008

"It's a Clipper Skipper!"

Good evening everybody. I am writing this post tonight with the news that snow is back in the forecast for real, for SNE. We have been watching this threat of a clipper redeveloping, alla Miller B, for Sunday. Well, after on and off again model runs yesterday, all things are starting to align for at least a light to moderate snow event for much of eastern LI and SNE, heading into ME for the end of this weekend. Above, I have posted a printout of what the 18z GFS ensembles were showing. They are much more robust and dig the H5 pattern much more so than the OP 18z GFS run. That is a red flag in our business for the OP runs to start shifting west, which is good for more QPF and snow in our backyards. The other computer model we look at religiously is the EURO. This computer model has been showing a pretty good to solid SNE hit for the past few runs since yesterday. It is looking more and more likely like our forecasts will start turning much snowier come 11PM tonight, if not by 12 NOON tomorrow for our Sunday storm. It is still a little far away to peg snowfall amounts, but preliminary amounts would throw a few inches of snow for much of SNE into Downeast Maine. A few inches can mean anything above 2" and less than 6". We will have to watch and see if the trend stays our friend tonight at 00z on both the GFS and the EURO and I do not see why it would not. We are starting to enter the EURO's hammertime range and its been locking this storm in since the get go. We just need the GFS to jump on board (QPF wise) as it started with the placement of the H5 low at 18z. Now we just need it to go fully come 00z tonight. With the EURO, we just need it to stay status quo and by Friday afternoon, this site will be throwing up snow maps for snowfall that will actually fall in our backyards and not 500 miles away.

1 comment:

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