Thursday, December 18, 2008

FINAL CALL: Dec 13th 2007 Redux?

UPDATED FINAL CALL (12/19/08 @ 8AM): I had to do it. I was looking over the models last night and they still seem to be printing out more QPF than originally thought, so I knew I'd push that 10"+ a bit further north, but I now have that into the southern NH area. SNH looks to receive the lower ends of the 10-15" call, but I would bet that in and around Boston, 12" will be a common number. Someone either on the North Shore (Beverly, Peabody, Danvers) or the interior South Shore (Brockton, Mansfield, Foxboro) will pick up more than the widespread 12" and pick up closer to 14-15" of snow. Some places could even pick up a little bit more. Winds are calm this morning, but will increase this afternoon once this storm gets cranking and that is why you see a red area outlined along the North Shore and South Shore to the Cape where NE winds will range from 20-30 mph sustained later this evening with gusts frequently over 35mph. Combined with the heavy snow lasting until between 9-11PM, blizzard conditions could be realized in these areas. It is an outside possibility as the NWS was contemplating putting up Blizzard Warnings for eastern Essex, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties, but decided not to hoist them. Either way, its going to be windy, snowy, and cold. One thing I left out yesterday was that the wind chills will be below zero tonight, so you may want to postpone any shoveling until tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow will feature light snow most of the day, especially in eastern Mass and an additional 1-3" cannot be ruled out to what we pick up today/tonight. Then we get to the Sunday storm. This one could be an all out blizzard in ski country this time as SNE will likely change to rain during the course of this one. Northwest of 495 and north of Route 2 in Mass, however, it looks to stay mainly snow. A preliminary guess would put them in the 6-12" range. Closer to Boston, a few inches cannot be ruled out before the change to rain. I will post my first call on that one later today. You ready? It's going to be a fun weekend in SNE. Be safe, but have fun.

FINAL CALL (12/18/08 @ 11AM): We have got ourselves a major winter storm coming to our area for tomorrow. The winter storm watches will soon be upgraded to warnings and the plows will be seen in large numbers tonight before the storm. This storm is eriely similar to the December 13th storm of last year. Remember that one? It's going to be a wall of snow that comes into our area. The snow will start light, but within a half hour, it will be coming down at a moderate to heavy rate. Last year it took 5 minutes from commencement to heavy. This one will be very similar. Okay, lets do it. I've got my final call up and lets get through all the dirty details.

Starting time: 9AM to 11AM in BOS
Snowfall Rates: 1-2"/hr during peak
Heaviest Snowfall: 12NOON - 7PM
Accumulations: Heaviest along and south of the Mass Pike, warning grade snows up to Concord, NH

Another interesting note is that there will be ocean effect snow Friday night keeping areas along the North Shore, South Shore and Cape in the snow through Saturday morning. There could be some intense snow bands that come off the water and could give an additional 2-4" of snow after the main batch of 7-10"+. Snow showers and flurries will stick in SNE through Saturday until early Sunday morning when the next storm moves in with its initial bout of heavy snow. The snow on Sunday should start mid morning. There is a Pats game at 1PM against the Arizona Cardinals, so that should be fun to watch on tv. I think it should stay snow until about the 3rd or 4th quarter before any changeover to sleet/rain is thought about. I think W and N of Route 495, this will stay mainly snow for you and another 6"+ is within the realm of possibilities. Let's get through tomorrow first.


Gee Why said...

thanks for the map. I'm about 3 miles from Quincy Bay, so we'll see the extra pounding we get tomorrow night.

E.H. Boston said...

Gee Why...looks like you could get some good winds tomorrow night as well. We are talking heavy snows and winds gusting to 45 mph, creating visibilities near zero. Latest guidance has me thinking that 10"+ should be pushed to the NH/MA border...between Beverly to PLY, ocean effect snows may enhance and you being 3 miles north of Quincy...I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 12+ in your back yard. Sunday now looking colder too, still a switch to rain SE of BOS, but several more inches with that one? A big possibility.

E.H. Boston said... is fixed and thank you for your complaments