Thursday, December 07, 2006

HECTIC FRIDAY AM COMMUTE?

I have been watching this possible snowy situation for tonight for the past few days. An arctic cold front will be crossing our area later tonight into early tomorrow morning. Front will be accompanied by a drastic temperature drop and this will be enough instability to kickoff some snow showers and squalls tonight. Some of these squalls could be very heavy.

Currently, western Massachusetts and southern Vermont is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the potential of 3-8" of snow as reported by the NWS early this morning. I don't totally agree with this forecast as I think that most areas will see 3" or less. I suppose the highest peaks and mountain resorts may see up to 5-6", but that would be pushing it, even with the expected 15:1 or 18:1 ratio forecasted. Around here, we may see squalls giving us a light accumulation of snow. These "windex" events are extremely hard to forecast as one town may get blasted with near whiteout conditions for 10-20 minutes, while just down the road they barely see a flake. However, I believe that many will see at least some snow accumulation tonight, or at least see some flakes.

Around here I am expecting possible accumulations to be like this...

Boston Metro (Boston, Inside Route 495): Coating - 2"
Cape Cod (Including the Islands): Coating - 1"+ (ocean effect Fri???)
Rhode Island (North): Trace - 1" (South): Trace
Worcester County (Fitchburg, Orange, Springfield) Coating - 2"
Conneticut (Eastern): Trace - Coating (Litchfield Co.): 1-3"
Western MA (Berkshires): 2-4"
Southern VT: 2-5"
Southern NH (Nashua, Manchester, Derry): 1-2"

It is hard to go town by town with this one as it will be very localized, but many areas have a shot at seeing snow. Not a big event by any means, so did not even bother to post a snowfall map. Sanders may have to be used tomorrow morning and people may need to remember to drive on this stuff as many will be caught off guard tomorrow morning when they get home from work with temperatures in the mid 50's. Good luck to the uninformed. It will be a shock. Tomorrow will be the coldest day since last winter with highs ranging from 25-30 in southern New England and ranging from 15-25 in northern New England. Don't worry, it will warm up again and by Sunday all will be forgotten and melted as highs will be back into the 50's yet again.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Watching the precip making its way into the Berkshires right now...

Hoping for some decent...more than 1" snows..

Joel said...

Reason for the 3-8" in the Berkshires is upsloping with west winds. This should be a good event for them, and will certainly be a 3-6" for those favorable areas.

Now, why do you have a higher chance of snow in Boston then the rest of the region?

Joel said...

IRT the precip currently moving into W MA, much of it should be in the form of rain for the region (the exception being the Berkshires).

Andrew said...

I really don't. For Boston, I am going with C-2". Same as Worcester. In fact in southern NH, I have More snowfall forecasted...1-2". The Cape, I also have the possiblility of 1"+.

I don't know where you are getting that I am forecasting more snow for Boston than anywhere else...the snow will stay along the coast for a time as backlash snows move in.

In fact, the snowfall accumulations for eastern MA may be a little conservative...possibly up to 3" in any good band that sets up of wind whipped fluffy snow...there may even be localized WHITEOUTS in SNE early tomorrow morning...Main timeframe for this event is between 6-11AM.

Anonymous said...

JEN- What do you see for Worcester...I've heard anywhere from a coating to THREE INCHES!

Whats going on?

Andrew said...

Jen, I too have seen forecasts for your area like that.

I bet that someone in Worcester Co. will pick up 2", maybe 2.5" of snow with this one. 3" a possibility as well. It really doesn't matter about the amount of snow, but that it will cause a thin sheet of ice to form on the roads and then be covered by a thin layer of fluffy snow. I would bet that the AM commute will be a major nightmare if this works out like it should.

I even reminds me of that hectic commute a few years back in December of 2003, where eastern MA had that brief, but intense snow squall work into the area from southern NH, causing a 10-15 minute whiteout. Everything was frozen and there was no sand on the road yet as we had not had our first big snow.

Similar...I think so...so just watch out.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Andrew, I agree 100%, looks like a general 1-3" in eastern MA, but a very dangerous flash freeze accompanying it. There should be a winter wx Advisory IMHO, being the first real event and the dangerous ice up involved. FWIW, that was Dec 2002, not 2003, but something similar is possible here. Def. higher impact than the Monday non-event.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Whats this week looking like?