Sunday, December 03, 2006

FIRST (little) SNOW ON THE WAY...

Sorry for taking so long to get this out there. I don't want to list my excuses, but, just say sorry for the delay.

Now for the snow. It has lost its punch from Friday afternoon. Thats where I got the forecast map from the last post. This thing, at that time, looked like a MONST-AH! Now, not so much. Looks like a little lamb. Snow will fall, mainly away from the coast, away from the Cape, and inside of Route 495. So if you meet these three requirements, expect 1-3" of snow. Not much, I know, but it will be the first time any of us have seen snow in our backyards since April 5th. Backside of snow will be around Springfield to Manchester, NH and into Maine. NAM, now is portraying the least amount of snow for areas NW of Boston...perhaps a coating to an inch on the grassy surfaces. GFS is better with perhaps a few inches all the way to Worcester. I took a road in the middle to give you this map. Cape, expect mostly rain and maybe a quick changeover to at least see your first flakes of the season. Sorry that 4-8" forecast didn't verify. Or maybe you are cheering it didn't.

Time table for this is light rain/mix NW moving in tonight. Then changes to a quick bout of snow for many other than the Cape with the main accumulation. Will likely end around 10AM to NOON...from NW to SE

Will post again if anything changes and won't wait two days to do so. There is a chance areas just WSW and WNW of Boston may have a SNOW ADVISORY posted this afternoon. I will keep you posted. I have a family party from around noon to 3PM, so hopefully nothing happens then and I'm so mad I'm missing the Pats game, but thats a different story.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Looks like a solid forecast. However, you may want to watch the trend of the GFS right now. Moving the 0.25" line much further inland from its previous run..likely around Fitchburg.

NAM is holding that line around BOS-NWD-Southern ORH Co.

Time will tell.

Joel, Ray, Jen, Andrew...looking at the models on UNISYS, why are they depicting much higher amounts than NCEP and what is with this potential powerhouse Nor'easter Friday. I don't see a thing on GFS.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- This looks like a similar snowfall map from December 4, 2005, but it was fluffy snow, not this gloppy stuff we'll get tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Joel, look into your commenting section in your blog. It won't let you post. Maybe check your settings or something.

Anonymous said...

ERIC- Oh, yeah, nice to have you back...didn't know what happened to ya.

Joel said...

Fixed, I had comment moderation on.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Andrew, ur problem is you model hug to much, you should excercise a little meteorological common sense. The models are guidance, not forecast sources. Eric, the models will not settle on a solution until right before the period in question, the handling of this potent southern jet will be nothing short of a nightmare, readrdless the potential is there for a major SNE event next wknd.

Andrew said...

I don't want to be accused of model hugging again, but I have to do this...I am lowering the snowfall accumulations even more...have to do it...some areas that I have under an accumulation may not even see a flurry tomorrow. No snow advisory coming...just a total hope breaker.