Friday, February 24, 2006

Quick Hitting Storm


A quick hitting/moving "Alberta Clipper" will be moving in tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Snow will arrive in western New England by 10 AM and then arrive in eastern New England by about Noon. Snow will be light on the onset, but quickly become moderate to heavy as the storm system intensifies rapidly over us. This will enhance the snowfall for most of New England and change the very light snow amounts that Detroit, MI will get and turn those into a moderate snowfall for most. The snow will be heaviest around sunset, as snowfall rates may reach one inch per hour. All snow will be light and fluffy as the ratio of melted liquid to snow will be about 16:1 or 18:1. Generally going for a 3-5" snowfall throughout most of MA, but farther south, a 1-3" snowfall will be the rule. The Cape and the Islands may only see a coating to one inch. Where the ocean may get involved and the most precipitation falls, the North Shore and much of southern NH may see over five inches. A few spots in this area may see six or seven fluffy inches as well. Carry on with your plans as we hardy New Englanders can take this amount of snow in stride. It will be a festive snow that just reminds us that it still is winter.

After this storm departs Sunday morning after a few scattered flurries or snow showers, the cold arctic air will pour in and highs on Sunday will range from the teens north to the low 20's south into Hartford, Providence, Worcester, and Boston. Windchills may be just around zero. Expect the same on Monday with highs in the low-mid 20's and we may even see some more very light snow/snow flurries overnight Monday that will keep overnight temperatures in the teens. Tuesday highs around 30 will be the rule and generally this entire week, highs in the upper 20's to lower 30's will be the rule with another chance of some snow by Thursday.

Enjoy the snow....more later.

2 comments:

Joel said...

Long time no see! Nice pictures from the past storm! Tomorrow looks good in Massachusetts, with a general 3-6" looking good right now. I have a strong feeling that areas such as here are going to be hard press, as the low will be "un-nervingly" close.

Eric said...

Well, like I said before on your comments, this thing just did not pan out. SW NH, namely Keene, got a good 6" or 7", but that was about the highest I could find. Here in Woburn, we got about 1.75" of snow, far from my 3-5" forecast from yesterday. North Shore was a total bust, as my 5-7" of yesterday morning fell apart. Was looking good this morning with Snow Advisories all the way into your area...Heavy Snow Warnings in NE Mass. But in the end...it just did not materialize.

Now all eyes will move to the possible midweek Thursday storm, as it has potential to be a moderate to heavy snowstorm for some parts of New England. Right now, it is reminding me of that later January storm when we were all going for low amounts due to a rain/snow line issue, but we all ended up with much more than the 3-6" forecast and some areas received up to 12".

This Thursday storm does not look like it will be a Nor'Easter, just a strong wave of low pressure from the lower Great Lakes that will intensify over us and give us some good QPF possibly. GFS runs are showing a good .5" to .75" over much of SNE with up to 1.0" in central NH. Wary of the Rain/Snow line though and either way it looks like this will not be a fluffy Thursday snow for us by any means.

VERY EARLY ESTIMATE

South Coast of NE: Light Snow Accumulations...mostly rain, some snow.

Most of CT, RI, SE MA: Light to Moderate Snow Accumulations...more snow, but rain/snow line nearby.

North of MA Pike to MA/NH Border, excluding the coast and Boston: Moderate to Heavy Accumulations...a mainly snow event...however could be somewhat sticky lowering accumulations.

Central New England: Heavy Snow Accumulations...all snow likely, fluff factor farther north you go.

Now...these are just some numbers to go by, but will DEF. change before any specific event. Just some numbers put with my words above.

Light Accumulations...1-3"

Light/Moderate Accumulations...2-4"

Moderate Accumulations...3-6"

Moderate/Heavy Accumulations...4-8"

Heavy Accumulations...6"+

I would love to know your insight on this particular storm threat. Cold air is on the way and it is ironic to think that our light 1-3" of snow from today may in fact last longer than our 1-2 feet of snow two weeks ago.

Anyway, thanks for posting and looking forward to hear from you again.