Sunday, July 13, 2008

Bertha Whanes; Cristobal Looms

TROPICAL UPDATE 7/13- We have got ourselves busy in the tropical weather center these days. Right now we have three (3) areas of concern in the Atlantic at this time. First, we have got ourselves Bertha. Yesterday, she remained stationary southeast of Bermuda and basically suffocated itself. We saw drastic loss of cloud coverage and a general decaying system. We saw it drop from Category 1 Hurricane status to a moderate Tropical Storm with max winds of 65 mph at the 11AM EDT hour. It will gradually head northeast, not affecting Bermuda other than some large swells and breakers along the beaches. It will head northeast and gradually decay and get caught into a frontal system and gradually turn extratropical as it heads east back over the North Atlantic and into the graveyard.

Our second area of concern is east of the Windward Islands at this time. An area of convection has developed into an organized area of low pressure overnight and is continuing to strengthen and organize some more today. The NHC has classified this system as Invest 94, meaning that tropical cyclone formation is quickly becoming likely. Winds with I-94 are now 30 mph, just a few mph shy of reaching tropical depression status. If it were to develop as most computer models are forecasting, it would be our third named storm of the season and would take on the name Cristobal. Forecast tracks with this system are all over the place right now as outlined in the image above, so we will have to wait and see how this area of disturbed weather develops over the next 24-48 hours to have a better handle on things.

Our last area of disturbed weather is about 120 miles southeast of Charleston, SC. It is a developing area of low pressure along an old frontal boundary that is slowing up and stalling just off the Southeast Coast. An area of low pressure is slowly developing here and tropical cyclone formation does not look likely at this time, but it is worth watching nonetheless. Anytime you have a low pressure system developing over 80 degree water this time of year, you always have to be weary. It's hurricane season. This does not have any classification at this time, so just throw its existence into the back of your mind. Needless to say, most cyclones that do develop in this area usually travel northeast away from the mainland, so they are of little threat to the East Coast anyway. Just something to think about.

That's all for today. A quick update on the forecast calls for showers tomorrow afternoon with a few thunderstorms too. Nothing at this point looks like it will reach severe criteria, but there are always a few that do become severe, so just beware. After that, we clear our and really start to heat things up. We are talking low to mid 80's with low humidity on Tuesday before the humidity pumps back into SNE and the temperatures soar late week. We could be talking about low to mid 90's here on Friday and Saturday, maybe even beyond. Western New England from CT on SE down the I-95 corridor including NYC, PHI, BAL, and DC could be in line for a 5-8 day stretch of temperatures into the 90-100 degree range with high humidity. Electricity will be at a premium this week, that's for sure.

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