Friday, March 17, 2006

Jury is Out on Tuesday Storm

Well, if you have not been by any tv lately, there has been rumblings of a possible storm, east coast storm, around here on Tuesday of this upcoming week. Right now, I would put my money on "Out to Sea," and no storm here on Tuesday, but it must be noted that there is a possibility that snow could be in our forecast. Here are the two main scenarios for the storm...

Scenario 1
The Polar Jet remains over our area because of the stubborn polar vortex that has been stuck around Nova Scotia the past few days that has been keeping the cold air coming in to our area with brisk NW winds. The polar jet would go through New York City and prevent the storm that will be coming at us from the Tennessee Valley from penetrating the cold dry dome of air over New England. This storm will ride the Southern Jet Stream, the moist one, and head out to sea around Washington D.C. The Mid Atlantic would be the northern edge of the storm's precipitation shield and the very northern edge might be in the form of snow around Philadelphia, with very light non-accumulating snow. Farther north, New York, Hartford, Providence, and Boston would see nothing more than a few passing clouds.
Scenario 2
The Polar Jet and the Southern Jet combine around the southern New Jersey coast and a monster storm develops into what we would call a "classic" Nor'easter. Heavy snow would be likely from Philadelphia to Boston and southern New Hampshire. Cold air would be in place for this to be a mainly snow event, with only the possibility of mixing with rain or sleet on the Cape and immediate coastal plains. This would be a big one. The polar vortex would move far enough out of the way to not be a major player and let the storm ride up the eastern seaboard with an impressive shield of snow and wind. Now, as this is a very low probability of occuring, it is worth noting because this is an extremely high stakes forecast. This possibility of a storm early next week is not likely, but if it was to occur, it would create havoc.
Either scenario, travels will be hampered in the central states on Sunday night through Monday as heavy snows are likely in Nebraska, northern Kansas, southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and into Illinois and Indiana. Snow accumulations for these areas look to be on the order of a general 4-8", however, there could be a band of snow to set up shop in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri where over a foot of the white stuff could fall. Any trips to Kansas City, a good five inches or more is likely. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see winter storm watches and snow advisories to be posted for these areas later on tomorrow or early Sunday.
Quick 5 Day Outlook
Partly sunny and continued breezy from the NW. Morning temperatures will be frigid in the mid 10's; suburbs, to around 20 Boston. Afternoon highs generally in the mid 30's.
Continued mostly dry and partly cloudy. Morning cold in the 20's. Afternoon highs in the middle 30's. Chance of flurries in the evening. Most places will stay dry.
Calm before the storm? Mostly sunny and chilly again Morning temps in the 20's and afternoon highs in the upper 30's. Possible increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. All depends on the storm track.
Day of the storm, if it would happen. Chance of snow, especially south. Low chance, 20 percent. Cold. Highs in the middle 30's. Morning lows in the middle 20's.
Day of the dig out? Unlikely. Moderating temperatures. Morning lows still in the 20's, but afternoon highs rebounding into the lower 40's. Middle 40's down on the Cape. Later in the week, it looks like the cold pattern will flip back and we will be basking in the warmth again with temperatures in the 50's.
More later on the possible winter storm and cold weather for the next several days.

No comments: