Snow in the Forecast?!

Fall has really settled into New England this past couple of days. Today was a very blustery day with temperatures in the upper 40’s in the Worcester Hills to lower 50’s in the lower elevations. A stiff NE breeze gave a bite to the air in southeastern Massachusetts today with the ocean storm off our coastline today. We woke up to temperatures in the 30’s in suburbia with mid 20’s out past Worcester into SW NH. Tonight will be another chilly night with many areas in suburbia of Boston getting down into the upper 20’s to around 30 degrees. However, we will rebound nicely tomorrow with highs getting back to the mid 50’s and the wind will not be as strong as it was today. Ahead of the next storm system, the flow will turn SW which will allow us to warm up to around 60 degrees, believe it or not, on Tuesday afternoon before rain showers move in from the NW later in the day.
As the rain pushes through our area, an area of low pressure will start to develop off the Cape and strengthen rapidly, all the while, the temperatures will be crashing in Southern New England. At this time, areas in Central and Northern New England will likely already be seeing light to moderate precipitation with temperatures dropping through the 30’s, so they will see the rain mix with and change to an all snow event. Now the question becomes, will there still be precipitation falling on Wednesday morning here in the Boston metro area. If so, I strongly believe that the precipitation type will not be falling in the form of drops, but in the form of flakes. Areas in elevated locations, like the Worcester Hills and Manadnocks of SW NH will see a higher likelihood of snowfall, but even areas closer to Boston, like Boston’s immediate suburbs, could see some wet snow flakes if this materializes like it should. Regardless, Wednesday is going to be a COLD BLUSTERY day with highs staying in the lower to mid 40’s in SNE and NNE won’t get out of the 30’s! Some areas of the higher elevations of NH and ME may see an accumulation out of this. A couple to a few inches of snowfall is not out of the question on the highest peaks.

The temperatures moderate later on in the forecast, so it’s not all doom and gloom.

Indian Summer to Fall Chill

Enjoy the last few days of nice summery weather here in SNE. Tomorrow will be another day with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees with abundant sunshine and we will only be warmer on Wednesday with highs getting well into the 70's. Overnight lows won't be as chilly Wednesday and Thursday mornings as most places will stay above 50 degrees. However, by the end of the week and into next weekend especially, we will struggle to match those nighttime lows for afternoon highs. Our transition day will be on Thursday with showers and moderate temperatures, highs in the 60's before we really start to cool down on Friday with highs staying in the 50's and then we really take a step down on Saturday with highs likely staying in the upper 40's here in SNE with overnight lows getting down into the 20's and 30's even here in SNE. Of course the valleys and sheltered regions will fall below freezing as many already have, but places that haven't seen that killing frost will get it this weekend. We will slowly start to moderate heading into next week, but the damage will have already been done for many of your plants outside as leaves will start to fall from the trees and we will introduce leaf raking season. Always fun.

The Red Sox/Rays game tomorrow looks very nice with temperatures in the mid 60's for the 7PM first pitch, and temperatures will gradually head towards 60 degrees by game's end. Hopefully we can have a better outcome tomorrow than what we had today. The Sox are down 2-1, heading into Game 4. Wakefield heads to the mound tomorrow to stop the bleeding.

Foliage Starting to Peak

The fall foliage is starting to peak across much of Central and now Southern New England. It has come on strong with the maples and birches here in eastern Massachusetts and is really starting to look amazing with peak conditions coming on strong and vibrant. SE Massachusetts is still only nearing peak, while everyone else will be passing peak in the next week or two with massive leaf drop likely. This is an amazing weekend for leaf peeping for those who went to the North Country to see amazing vibrant colors on the base of the mountains and snow capped summits. Its an amazing sight. Route 16 in NH is great this time of year. The peak colors will continue to head SE towards the coast and get the Cape within the next 7-10 days. The weather has been fantastic with highs in the North getting up into the 60's with highs in the South getting into the 70's the past couple of days. Tomorrow through Tuesday and Wednesday look to continue the cool nights and warm days theme with highs tomorrow and Monday near 70, while Tuesday will be into the mid 70's, before we start to cool off later in the week to near 60 by Thursday and then by the weekend, highs will be in the 50's it looks like in the Boston metro area with highs in the north likely staying in the 40's with overnight lows into the 20's North and 30's South. If you haven't gotten a frost yet, next weekend may be the time for you. It looks like many areas outside of the city of Boston will be experiencing their first frosts and possibly hard freezes by next weekend, say around Sunday morning perhaps. Until then, enjoy the warm October weather because long range outlooks chill us down big time by the end of next week and that cool to cold weather regime looks to continue through the rest of the month it looks like. So get out there and enjoy the warm sunshine while we still have it.

The Sun Returns...

The sun has finally returned to SNE after waiting days and day for its return. Last night an area of showers, locally heavy, moved through the South Shore of Massachusetts and left up to a quarter inch of rainfall in its wake and left the morning pavement wet across cities from Brockton to Plymouth, MA. That has moved offshore now and we will now be seeing the clouds start to break with the ground drying out after about a week of clouds and rain. Today will actually feature nice temperatures as well with highs getting right up to about 70 degrees. Normal for this time of year is about 67 degrees, so we will actually be a few degrees above normal for the date. Tomorrow looks like another dry and fairly mild day with highs getting into the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees. Then a front will move through our area from Canada and we will go into the coolest air of the season on Saturday and we really chill down by Monday with highs likely in the around 50 degrees on the hilltops and highest elevations of SNE, likely only 40’s for highs in NNE, and likely around 55 degrees in the city of Boston. Overnight lows with the longer nights will have a chance to really bottom out as we cool down the afternoon highs, so we will likely see a frosty Sunday morning here in many areas outside of the cities here in SNE, with more people getting into frosts and growing season ending freezes by Monday and Tuesday mornings. Monday will feel like a day more suitable for early to mid November here in SNE and could come as a shock to the system.

If you are looking for snow, there may be some of the white stuff in the Catskills of northern upstate New York tomorrow night which could push over into the Green Mountains of Vermont with the usual places like Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak likely getting a fresh covering of snow on their summits, yielding a Saturday with snowcapped mountains and nice foliage at the base. That could be quite the sight for leaf peepers. SNE will have to wait another 2 weeks before we get peak foliage into our area. The snow? I think we will have to wait a little while longer yet, but the first flakes are likely only a few short weeks away, climatologically.

October to Start Chilly

October is a month of transition here in SNE. We can start off the month with nearly summery conditions with temperatures into the 80’s, with the all-time record high at Boston’s Logan Airport at 90 degrees. It can also see winter like cold with the record low in the 10’s in suburbia to 20’s in the city of Boston. This is also the month where many see their first flakes as well. Actually, we usually see accumulating snowfall about one every three to four winters outside of the city, with the last accumulating October snowfall on October 29, 2005. That day featured a forecast for morning snow showers to rain that quickly grew intense and in the end, some towns in metro Boston picked up a thick coating to a couple of inches of water logged snowfall. October snowfalls don’t mean that you will have a blockbuster year, however. In October of 2001, Boston recorded its earliest flakes on record, October 8th, and Boston only saw about 17” of snow for the entire winter that year, with the majority of it falling overnight on December 8th, when a general 5-8” snowstorm blanketed SNE with heavy wet snow.

That said, our forecast is cooling down as we head into the weekend. Tomorrow will be a near normal day, maybe even slightly above normal with temperatures in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees tomorrow. The sun will also make an appearance tomorrow after today’s storms around Boston. After six straight cloudy days, we could use some sun. Temperatures continue to decline going into Friday and Saturday with only highs in the low 60’s Friday, and around 60 on Saturday. We continue to drop in the temperature department on Sunday with a frosty morning out in suburbia, with lows getting down to the low and mid 30’s in places like Norwood, MA and Bedford, MA. That will lead to a day of temperatures maxing out in the upper 50’s. We continue the downward trend on Monday with highs likely staying in the lower 50’s in Worcester County and SW NH, with mid 50’s closer to the coast. Morning lows will be very cold as well with temperatures likely going below freezing for some time in suburbia and likely around 40-44 degrees in the city of Boston. Monday will be our coolest day of the next bunch with moderating temperatures later next week, getting back into the mid 60’s by midweek. Early call on Columbus Day weekend and its way too early to be speculating on this, but right now it looks like a mainly dry weekend with seasonably cool temperatures. If you had to peg me with numbers, I would say low 60’s in SNE with cooler temperatures in the mountains. Likely highs in the 50’s and lows in the 20’s and 30’s up North, with peaking color in Central and ‘northern’ SNE. The North Country will likely be past peak at this time with massive leaf drop at this time at the highest elevations. Still, its way too early to be looking out this far, so we will have to wait and see as we head into next week.

That is all for now, I will try to post more regularly as we head into the most fun part of the year, wintertime. Enjoy October, it's one of the best months of the year.