Monday, November 19, 2007

Tuesday's Rain/Snow

The forecast is looking very chilly for tomorrow. Highs should range from the low to mid 30's North to upper 30's to low 40's South, warmest down on the Cape and Islands. Precipitation will take all morning to reach eastern southern New England. We will finally see the precipitation move in after the lunch hour and it may at first be mixed with a few wet snowflakes here in the dashed areas, this includes the cities such as Hartford-Worcester-Boston-Lowell-Portsmouth, NH-coastal Maine. Areas southeast of here will just be too warm for any frozen precipitation. In the light pink area, we will see up to one inch of snow/sleet/ice. Most will fall early and likely change to drizzle as the precipitation winds down. Where it stays mostly wet snow with highs struggling to get above 32 degrees, up near Berlin, NH and the western mountains of Maine, there could be as much as 1-3" of snowfall. This isn't a big event, but if you get a coating of snowfall, it could mess up your drives.

There is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the Berkshires and southern Vermont, for some accumulating snow and light ice accretion.

Here is what the NWS out of Taunton is thinking about tomorrow.

TUESDAY... CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN EARLY DUE TO LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST... HIGH TEMPS GIVEN BY MOS WILL BEREDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOMELIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.PRECIP...A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION WILL TRIGGER A FEW HOURS OFSTEADY PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT COULDCOME DOWN AT A DECENT CLIP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE PEAK TIMESBETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON. IT PROBABLY WILL BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOWACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE FEEL THIS WAY AFTERLOOKING AT THE UKMET/GFS/ECMWF 2 METER TEMPERATURE AND SOUNDINGPROFILES TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM APPEARS TO SLOW WHICH IS ATYPICAL BIAS OF THE MODEL AND THINK PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVEBETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM ACROSS WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. THIS MEANSTHAT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW.

WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT THE TIME PRECIPITATIONMOVES IN...WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSSINTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ESPECIALLY IN THE NW INTERIOR REGIONS ANDTHE WORCESTER HILLS, WHERE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AN AMOUNTOR TWO EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THERE IS ALSO ACHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET MIXED IN ACROSS THEINTERIOR. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL NOT HOIST A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIALESPECIALLY IF IT APPEARS THAT MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL MIX IN FORA TIME AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WINTRY EVENT FOR THE SEASONIMPACTING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. AGAIN...WE DO THINK THATACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ON ROADWAYS BECAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ATDAYBREAK ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING.
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We will see what the weather brings tomorrow.

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