THE "OUT TO SEA" SPECIAL

Right now my confidence of this snowfall map is medium. I am not overly confident of this forecast verifying, but I feel pretty good enough to put it out there as my preliminary forecast. Yesterday afternoon, the NAM drifted away from the big storm idea by pushing it mainly out to sea. This was the 12z run of the NAM. The GFS was still bullish on QPF for much of SNE and CNE until 6z this morning, giving some parts of our area a light to fairly moderate snowstorm. It would have been a Category 2 Storm on Henry Marguarsity's Intensity Chart. However, the latest run of the 12z GFS has taken this storm much further to the S&E with limited precipiation in our area. Having said all this, the NAM has continued to show this storm going well out to sea consistently for about 24 hours now, which is a good streak for a computer model. Therefore, since the GFS has turned away from the storm being close to the coast and other models starting to keep the storm further S&E, including the Canadian, JMA, and UKMET. I have posted a map of minor accumulations at best to the S&E of Boston, where one to perhaps two inches is still possible. The Cape is the wild card. Down there expect a gloppy coating to an inch of snow.

Thats all for now on this "OUT TO SEA" storm. Any changes or revisions to the forecast and I will be the first to post them up.

THE WINTER OF NEVERENDING DISAPPOINTMENT

I don't have to tell you that I totally busted my forecast last night. I think everybody did, except Todd Gross. This winter is proving to be very deadly for people like me trying to put out a snowfall forecast. The models have become so unreliable that I feel like we are reduced to just forecasting on a whim.

Now that I got that out of the way, I have more bad news. Its looking clearer that the storm system for Friday will now be heading mostly if not all out to sea and will just graze the extreme eastern portion of New England with a mix of rain and snow. Accumulations look to be minor at best. Maybe a sloppy inch?

That said, any developments or changes to the forecast and I will be the first to report them. For now, its still looking like the winter of neverending disappointments for us snowlovers. Sorry, I wish I could change this horrific sequence of events.

KEEPING MY FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY

FWIW, there is a SNOW ADVISORY for SE MA and the Cape. It basically calls for snow to start around 10PM and continue until about NOON, ending from NW to SE. The Cape may go into ocean effect mode after the real meat and potatoes ends, adding to their accumulations. NWS is calling for a dusting to an inch outside of the advisory area to 2-4" in SE MA, then a whopping 3-6"+ for the extreme outer part of the Cape.

I will be sticking to my map from yesterday and hope for the best. I think that NWS may be overdoing it a tad, but the difference between a 2-4" forecast and a 3-6" forecast is really splitting hairs to tell you the truth. I was going to make a new map and post 2-5" for the Cape, but system stalled and I didn't bother.

Enjoy the snow as the once promising late week storm may want to stay out to sea and spare our area from any appreciable snows, except maybe the Cape and Islands where a few inches is still possible.

Its turning into NOWCAST time and I will be posting the snowfall amounts from tonight and tomorrow morning in tomorrow's post.

A LITTLE SURPRISE

Okay. This snowfall map has absolutely nothing to do with the Thursday night-Friday storm that will be affecting SNE. This is totally independent. It is forecasted for tomorrow night through Wednesday morning. What looked like a dying clipper system moving into our area, now looks like it will hit the water and be revived. This revival will occur very quickly and there will be a pretty decent shot of Atlantic moisture being tossed into this system and many areas could be picking up a fairly healthy surprise snowfall out of this one. It looks like the heaviest snowfall will occur in SE Mass and the Cape, as they will be closer to the quickly developing storm. Snows of 2-4" are likely there, after many areas picking up 1-3.5" of snow with ocean effect this morning. Otherwise a solid 1-2", isolated areas of 3" are possible for the rest of eastern SNE. This is a developing situation and will be outlining the effects of this surprise storm and the storm that will be a possible Kahuna for SNE later in the week.

MAJOR STORM UPDATE SOON

I am not going to post much if anything else today. I am playing it cool and watching the late week's storm evolution as the model suites come in. The models are still basically all over the place. Some show a pretty good sized snowstorm, others a rainstorm, and yet others still show a miss out to sea. I don't think it would be responsible to put out a forecast just yet with the possiblility of it to change so completely. Storm is still some 100 hours away, so there is much to be watched and a lot of time to watch it.

I will have another major update later tonight and we'll see what the models are showing with this storm tonight. Then by tomorrow, inside 72 hours, we'll have to start making some responsible forecasts. Until then, arrivederci.

THE WEEK AHEAD

We are at the beginning of another week again. We are entering the last week of January and Thursday will mark the beginning of February, infamous for some of Boston's biggest snowstorms ever. Will it happen this year? I honestly don't know. Long range forecasts look great concerning the temperatures as it now looks like this cold air will persist right through the entire month. We are leaving January and Boston sits with less than one inch of snow for the month and 1.5" for the entire season. That is truly amazing from the viewpoint of a climatologist and statistics maniac. I can tell you one thing, I think it will be very hard to get to normal snowfall this year as we would need 40" within the next two months basically. I know we can get snow into April, but we usually don't.

Will this week bring any snow? Yes is the short answer. Where is the next question. Tomorrow night the Cape and Islands will see some ocean effect snow which I detailed below in the next post with a snowfall accumulations map. Thereafter, cold air will filter into our area again with high back into the 20's for Tuesday and Wednesday. We will moderate into the low 30's late week and with the "warmup" a storm is forecasted to move into our area from the SW. Right now the GFS is taking this as an inland runner, actually tracking right over ORH and southern NH. This track would give much of SNE a mostly rain event. How much would that stink. We get so cold that the NW flow surpresses the storms to our south and east and then the trough axis moves far enough into the Midwest that the storm is allowed to develop in the OV and track along the Appalachians and we will be too warm for any snow. That would be awful to say the least and I would surely issue a "Suicide Watch" on Eastern Weather Forums for east coasters looking for the first big one of the season.

One thing on our side is the UKMET is giving this storm a much colder track that would mean mostly or all snow for SNE. UKMET was solid on the storm that missed us yesterday and Thursday last week when the GFS was giving us a monster about six days out. I wouldn't trust the GFS yet as this winter it has had a horrendous track record. If anything, the UKMET has been doing much better and should be followed by more. Time will tell. We need this one.

CAPE SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT

There will be some snow down on the Cape tomorrow with a storm passing way far to our south and east. This will likely usher in some freezing cold air and with the storm oriented such, it will pack some northerly winds which may spark off some ocean effect snow showers on the Cape, especially on Chatham and points further down the Cape. I know this didn't pan out the other day when 1-3" was widely forecasted, but I feel pretty confident of some snow accumulations, generally a coating to two inches, heaviest fluff on the outermost Cape. For the rest of us, we may see some snow flurries tomorrow morning, but that will be about it for storms the next 5 days.

ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE SUN - MON

Wow, was it cold out there this morning with lows in the single digits below zero to single digits above, with the biting NW wind at 25-35mph making it feel more like ten to twenty below zero. The good news is that we are just about done with the coldest of air. Tomorrow will be much warmer, compared to today, with highs approaching the freezing mark. We may actually see many towns surpass the freezing mark on Sunday, but there may be a price we have to pay along with the warmer temperatures.

A storm system will try to get its act together along an old stationary front in the Atlantic sometime Sunday morning. How close to the coast and how fast this storm develops along the front will determine how much and if SNE will see any snow out of this one. Right now, the computer models are pretty much all over the place, with the 06z NAM showing a moderate snowstorm in eastern SNE with an inverted trough giving us several inches of fluffy snow. However, in the 12z NAM run, it pushed that heavy band into SW CT and exiting off the Cape and Islands. Both the 0z GFS and NAM didn't even show snow for any of SNE, so we are making progress. Both 6z and 12z GFS outputs were a little more conservative on the QPF amounts as it usually is less bullish than the NAM, but still manages to give SE MA and the Cape a plowable snowstorm with many amounts greater than 2-3". This potential little sneaky storm is still about 72-84 hours away so there will be a lot of changes between now and then, but if there is a need to put out a map, I will be sure to put one out.

After the possible event on Sun-Mon, we will return to more cold weather with highs in the 20's to round off the week with another storm threat along about Thursday of next week. Stay warm.

IT DOESN'T GET ANY MORE BORING THAN THIS...

The weather does not get any more boring than this. Boston received a whopping 0.6" of snow yesterday and the day before. That whopping 0.6" added to the 0.8" gives Boston a seasonal total of 1.4" for the entire season. Normally we should be in the ballpark of 19" to 20" by now. Is there any snowfall in the forecast? Well, there may be a flurry or two tomorrow night down on the South Coast, but other than that the next six days look totally devoid of snow for SNE. We will get cold on Friday with highs struggling to reach 10, but we will warm up back into the 20's and 30's, with more sun. This winter is taking last winter's awful themes to the extreme and totally destroy the hopes of any snowlover east of the Ohio Valley.

I don't think I have ever made a 5 - 6 day without any chance of precipitation. This is just totally crazy. It will feature winter cold, but just not look like winter. It will feel like winter for sure. I don't know what to tell you guys. I wish I could say that next week looks better for our prospects for a decent snowfall. However, I can't. Its just not in the cards. Next week will be another cold week with highs staying in the 20's mostly, but thats about it. There won't be any big storms across the entire country. I guess we SNE'ers can take solice in that we are not the only ones suffering from an extreme snow drought this season. In fact many in the lower 48, excluding the Southern Plains and Rockies States are in a major snow drought. Its not just us, but it feels like it. I'm doing everything in my power to change this dreadful theme of the snowless winter of 2006 - 2007 and have changed the font of the blog posts.

I hope we can do something fast to change this dry pattern as we are nearly into the month of February with just a little over 1" of snow for the entire winter. If not, this season may go down as one of the all - time least snowy BOS winters. Its just plain depressing. What happened to the forecasts in the fall calling for 125 - 150% of normal snowfall for this winter? I honestly don't know. If you do, let me know. My guess in the fall of 50" in BOS this winter looks to be way off and now I am saying that this winter will be more like the winter of '01-02 where we only saw about 15" of snow. We may even come close to the snowless winters in the early 70's where we picked up around 8" of snow for the entire winter. So, as you can tell...I am backing down from my earlier post of 50" of snow down to about 10-20" of snow for the winter. In a normal winter that may seem miniscual at best, but 10-20" this year looks great. That means we still have 9-19" more to fall this winter, in two months.

THE ARCTIC IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE IN SNE THURSDAY

The true frigid air is arriving Thursday. Before that we have one more seasonable day tomorrow with highs around 30 or in the lower 30's. An arctic frontal passage will trigger a scattered snow shower or two tomorrow night with the small chance of a snow squall as well. This will introduce frigid air for Thursday with highs generally in the mid 10's in SNE and single digits in NNE. Friday morning will be down right dangerously cold. I would not be surprised if parts of New England will go under a Wind Chill Advisory or Wind Chill Warning for this time. Lows will be around 5 BELOW to ZERO ABOVE in SNE. NNE may see temperatures in the -20 to -10 degree range, with wind chills colder than 30 BELOW. SNE may see windchills in the -20 to -15 degree range.

We warm up for Saturday with the slight chance of a snow shower or period of very light snow with temperatures around 30. We will stay seasonable Sunday through Monday with highs in the lower 30's with no real storms in sight. Next week, hopefully we can get into a more stormy pattern with more chances of snow along the east coast.

COLD AND DRY

With this winter of disappointments its pick your poison. Do you want it warm and wet or do you want it cold and dry. Both are equally depressing in my opinion, but to tell you the truth I would rather have warm and wet because at least you know that there won't be any snow. This type of weather pattern is killing because there is nothing worse than having a storm go out to sea, which is happening right now and will happen again on Thursday.

There will be some snow tonight, but the operative word is "some." Some places will see snow showers, while others see scattered flurries. If you see a steadier snow shower tonight, you may pick up a coating to an inch, but thats about it. Then partly cloudy and then the miss Thursday will usher in the coldest air we've seen in years. Lows on Friday morning will be widespread in the below zero range. It will be battery killing cold. Highs on Friday will be only about 5 to 10 degrees above in SNE and -5 to 5 above in NNE. It will be ridiculously cold with a biting north wind as well, making it feel in the -15 to -30 degree range in the afternoon from South to North. Thereafter, we "warm" up immediately on Saturday with highs around 30 and then Sunday we will be in the 30's.

So, to repeat myself, cold and dry will be the rule and dangerous cold will be here by Friday. I don't think a map is necessary for tonight's event, so don't expect one later on.

ANOTHER MAJOR LEAGUE DISAPPOINTMENT

It is now looking clearer to me anyway that our Thursday storm that yesterday at this time looked to be an absolute monster, is now going to be getting its act together way too far offshore and just giving SNE very minimal effects. This forecast is still a good 96 to 100 hours away from verifying, but pretty much once we get inside of 84 hours and especially 72 hours, these tracks pretty much get etched in stone one way or another. Basically this is how the computer models worked this thing yesterday through today.

Yesterday's models...

00z: Showing a monster EC storm with heavy snow inland, rain coast, then over to a blizzard. (GOOD)

06z: Backed off with minimal QPF. Storm development offshore. (BAD)

12z: Raging EC Blizzard again. Storm development perfect of I-95 special. (VERY GOOD)

18z: Backed way off. Overall flow much more progressive. (BAD)

Today's Models...

00z: Very similar to 1/20 18z. (BAD)

06z: A little better with inverted trough bringing eastern NE some snows. (STILL BAD THOUGH)

12z: Gawd awful. Storm development way off into the Northern Atlantic. Just wind from it. (WORST RUN YET!)

So, as you can see, the GFS is starting to trend in the wrong direction for snow lovers. The European model has been like this for the past day and a half now and yesterday's JMA showed a complete miss as well. So, I am just about to stick a fork in Thursday's once promising looking storm, barring a miracle.

One thing the 12z GFS and NAM shows is a little snow for Tuesday with an upper level low coming through NY State into SNE with a little moisture being thrown off the Atlantic at us. I want to see more runs of the models before really going for this, but it is not out of the question that everyone is fair game for a nice coating to perhaps a couple of fluffy of inches out of this one. Wouldn't that be a nice surprise.

Long range. After Thursday's big miss, we go back into the freezer for next weekend. Any miracles and I will be sure to post something. For now, its a no go on Thursday's storm.

The Chill Dominates

The chilly weather will dominate through this weekend and all of next week. A chill that we will have to get used to because it looks like this chilly pattern we just entered could last through Valentine's Day and may even go right through February. Tomorrow will feature partly cloudy skies for all of us getting last minute chips and dip and making the last rounds to the liquor stores before the Pats - Colts game. It shouldn't be brutally cold or nearly as windy as it is today with temperatures around 30. Gametime in Indianapolis will feature some light snow, but it doesn't matter as they'll be in the nice 72 degree RCA Dome.

Dry and cold weather continues through midweek with temperatures generally in the upper 20's to lower 30's with partly cloudy skies. Dull, boring weather is dominating. That may change by the end of next week, I am eye-ing Thursday, especially Thursday night into Friday, for a change of this dull, boring weather, but that is still 5 - 6 days away and that is plenty of time for the forecast to change. As we saw with the last storm, it wasn't totally resolved on the computer models until the thing actually started. For now, I am playing the conservative route and just throw it out there that there may be a potent coastal storm sometime late this upcoming week. Just throw it in the back of your mind.

Well, it looks like I covered the forecast today, and there is nothing much else to talk about. Try not getting blown away today with the wind gusts approaching 50 mph.

TOTAL BUST...

Don't I have my head in between my tail. I will admit it. I totally busted the forecast last night and blew it in a big way for most N&W. SE of Boston was mostly rain and got that, but to the NW, I totally blew it. There was nowhere near 2-5" just N&W of Boston. I live 12 mi NW of Boston and saw a skim coating washed away overnight and this morning with a snow shower move through around 9AM. Lemonster got about an inch, but other than that, my forecast was a BUST.

The forecast remains quiet and cold, allbeit windy tomorrow with a High Wind Watch as winds may gust to between 45 - 55mph. Windchills tomorrow night may be around zero to 15 below. Cold continues into early next week with a storm heading out south of us on Tuesday that may deposit a few inches on the Capital, believe it or not. Thereafter, we may go into a stormy pattern with a blocking pattern with cold and storms developing off the coast and riding up the coast, so we could get some interesting weather late next week. However, I will be playing the extremely conservative route with this one and not overforecast it, like I have done with the past two storms.

Its official. This winter just plain blows.

UPDATED SNOWFALL

The more east trend of the storm peaked last night and has since returned some precip to areas of western New England. Here, I think it will be an all snow event, but you will not get into the heavy duty precip like areas further east. Here I am expecting a good 1-2" with isolated spots getting around 3", especially Putman, CT, may see up to 3".

Further east we get to Worcester. From Worcester to just inside Route 128, this is where the "jackpot" for this storm will be. Precip will blossom on this area and snowfall could get locally heavy just in time for the morning commute. All said and done, a gloppy, 2-4" is likely, again with an isolated spot picking up 5". Someone N&W of Portsmouth, NH may wind up with closer to 6" of snow.

East of the "jackpot" zone, this is where it is tricky. I have moved it a tad to the east, but am still keeping the city of Boston on the line between the mix and the mostly rain to the SE. Here, you will likely start as snow, quickly turn to rain and may quickly turn back to snow just in time to get the last moderate to heavy band to go through with perhaps a coating to an inch. All said and done here, I put a general 1-2" of snow, but most of it will be washed away. SE of here, you don't have to worry about this one. All rain in the green area. Sorry.

The true "jackpot" with this storm will be northeast Maine, Downeast Maine, with perhaps as much as 10-18" of white gold. Much of Maine at this time from just inland of Portland to Caribou, including Bangor is under a Winter Storm Watch for possibly 6"+. Some will get much more than that and see near Blizzard conditions at the height of the storm. Enjoy it.

Bottom line, the snow moves in overnight in SNE around 1-3AM. It only lasts about six hours, but it could be an intense snow for about 2-3 of those hours, so stay tuned. Further north into NH and ME, expect the storm to move in late morning to early afternoon from south to north, but in northern Maine, the snow may continue into Saturday morning with near Blizzard conditions Friday night. Ski areas will do great with this one. I would not be surprised if one of the resorts picks up a quick 20" of powder out of this one. Again, enjoy it. I will.

More on the extended forecast, which stays extremely wintery with more chances of snow later.

WINTER STORM FRIDAY

A nice little snowstorm is on the way for SNE. As always, we will have to be watching the rain/snow line with this one. This line will be mighty important because just to the west and north of it, that is where the heaviest snowfall totals may be. Right now I have a good swath of 2-4" of snow for western New England. The "jackpot with this storm will be to the north and west of Boston by about 15 to 20 miles. A solid accumulation of 4-7" of heavy wet snow looks likely. The pink area is the wild card. The rain/snow line will be dancing around this region. We could see widely varying amounts of total snow. I will start as snow and then may transition to rain and then back to a heavy thumping snow on the backside of this system. Possible. For this area, I did not put an accumulation because we could wind up with nearly nothing or wind up with over a half a foot of wet snow. Its too close to call. SE of there, including Boston, it will be a brief period of snow, accumulating very lightly. Then it will transition to rain with temperatures in the mid - upper 30's at Logan and lower 40's on the Cape. Friday night we may see a flash freeze in areas that warm up enough to get some melting and rain during the storm. Temperatures will drop like a rock into the single digits and teens Friday night when the storm pulls into the Gulf of Maine where the northern part of that state will have blizzard conditions with 6-12"+ of powder.

More details on this storm later.

COLDEST WE'VE SEEN IN YEARS!

The coldest weather we have seen in two winters is on the way to New England as we speak. This morning temperatures were around 35-40 degrees across eastern SNE. Now temperatures are ranging from the mid to upper 20's in northern MA to lower 30's elsewhere. Its only going down further from here. Tonight temperatures will hit rock bottom, ranging from around 0 in Worcester County to around 10 in the city of Boston. Then tomorrow we will not see highs make it out of the mid to upper 10's all across SNE. The Cape may even see some ocean effect snow due to a strong north wind. Could we be talking about accumulating snow on the Cape tomorrow? I would say a good coating to an inch is possible especially from points Chatham up to Provincetown.

We will see an amazing turn around Thursday with highs rebounding all the way into the lower 30's after morning temperatures will range from 5 - 15 degrees. Then Thursday night, all eyes will be on the South. We will be watching a storm getting its act together south of the coastal waters of North Carolina. This storm will be getting together quickly and will be moving up the coast at a fairly rapid pace. Now the next question is how close will this storm system make it to the SNE coast? I think it will be coming close enough to give inland areas a light to moderate snowstorm. The coastal areas are the wild card with this system as they will be borderline between rain and snow due to the abnormally warm waters off our coastline. Water temperatures off the SNE coast are ranging from the lower to mid 40's, a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Besides that, I think inland areas are in line for a fairly significant snowstorm on Friday, with several inches possible. Many media outlets may be shying away from this right now, but if the GFS and NAM models continue to show what they are showing now, they will not longer be able to play the conservative, safe route and they will have to go out on a limb and say that we are getting this. I must say that NECN meteorologist is alluding to this storm, so I'll give some credit to him. I am sure that Barry Burbank of CBS 4 Boston will be hollering about this storm by tomorrow morning if the maps are still showing it.

I would like to hear what you guys think of this storm and please post your thoughts. Any help forecasting this would be greatly appreciated. If the NAM and GFS keep showing what they are showing by 18z tonight, I will be making my first snowfall accumulation map on this system, which believe it or not, is only two and a half days away. Surprise snowstorm, anyone?

SNOWSTORM FRIDAY?

I have been watching this potential storm threat for a couple of days now, but have been preoccupied with this dud of a storm that is going through now. The GFS has been showing a storm for a while now and I had it in the 6 day yesterday. Here it is. The coastal. This is from the 06z GFS. There are a lot of factors playing into this that will give us a good storm. One is that it is going to be getting a lot colder with the NAO going nuetral at this time. A lot of factors still have to come in to make this happen, but if the models are still showing this tomorrow night, you bet we'll see some snow.

The Week Ahead...

A WINTER WONDERLAND (way up North)

I have updated the forecasted accumulations. I have downgraded for everybody as there will be just too much darn warm air involved. Yesterday, there were two camps. One for a good snowstorm, the GFS, and one for a good rainstorm, the NAM. Well, this morning, the GFS has cracked under the pressure and now looks just as warm if not warmer than the NAM at the current time. So, for this, plus with the help of fellow blogger Joel, I have decided to downgrade these numbers considerably. Read 'em and weep. Its mostly rain south of the city. A few pockets of freezing rain may be entrenched in some colder places, but they will likely be scooped out. NW of the city and into much of northern and central MA, we will have a brief period of some mixed precipitation. We could get some freezing rain or sleet, but that will change to rain. NW of there, there will be a longer period of mixed precip, so travel could become dangerous. NW of there, expect snow on the onslaught, which will change to a mix then back to snow briefly at the end. Everyone has a chance of some snow at the end to pick up a light accumulation, but the models aren't really showing this ATTM, so I will choose to leave it out. Thats all for now. SNE, you got screwed again!

Thereafter, it turns frigid with highs in the upper 10's to lower 20's on Wednesday, before "warming" to near 30 by late week, before another shot of Arctic cold next weekend.

Stay tuned to the latest information on this developing winter storm for New England and finally GO PATS!

EXTENDED FORECAST TURNS FRIGID

FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM ON THE WAY FOR MLK DAY

Our first significant winter storm is on its way for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. It is looking more and more likely that this storm will be bringing lots of winter precipitation to a wide area of New England, including SNE. In fact "northern" SNE and "southern" Central New England may see the jackpot out of this storm, which will likely be Winter Storm Warning criteria type snows. This map is the preliminary snowfall accumulation map. In the green on the Cape, they will see mostly rain, but even they will likely turn to snow at the very end of the storm. Far north into Ski Country of Northern New England, precipitation will be lighter with perhaps a good accumulation of about a few inches. South of the Pike, in the pink area, there will be a rain/sleet situation transitioning over to snow. North of the Pike and south of Route 2, there will be more in the way of snow with perhaps a few to several inches. We will have to wait and see how this pans out. In the darker blue area, the storm will be mostly if not all snow. This is where the heaviest precipitation will be, so this area will have the heaviest snow. I would say that southern NH will have the heaviest snow accumulation. Right now, a solid six inches or more is possible. I will make a more detailed map, with numbers as we get closer to this upcoming storm, but the target day is Monday and it could carry on into the Tuesday morning commute with perhaps lots of snow and slick roads to cause delays.

One thing to mention is that when I mean that a wintry mix will be around, especially Sunday night north of the Pike, I mean we will see sleet and perhaps worst of all freezing rain which could reek havoc on the roadways and may cause power outages. Getting a slushy snow on top of it will only mask the ice accretion and we will have problems.

Whatever does fall Monday will stick around for a while as all of next week looks to be FRIGID as I have been advertising for a long time now. Highs on Tuesday will be chilly, mainly in the upper 20's. Wednesday may stay in the upper 10's to around 20 and we could be starting the morning here in SNE, around 0. Central and northern New England will likely be BELOW ZERO to begin the day Wednesday and the Frigid air will persist through the week.

This is our pattern change. Enjoy, I know I will.

FIRST WINTER STORM TO FORECAST FOR NEW ENGLAND

A major winter storm is developing and will affect much of the eastern part of the US. There will be a wide swath of significant snow from Kansas through Missouri, Illinois, the Ohio Valley, Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, and into central and northern New England. All these places are in line for a very significant snowstorm on the order of about 4"+. If this area of significant snow makes it into southern New England, it is still yet to be seen. First of all, it will be very mild tomorrow with highs in the low 50's. Don't get used to it. A backdoor cold front moves through Saturday with a snow shower North and a rain shower South, bringing temperatures back to the lower 40's and falling through the 30's during the afternoon. Sunday will be chilly here with highs in the mid - upper 30's. Storm clouds will be moving in during the afternoon. In San Diego, the Patriots will see nice weather with highs in the mid 60's. Another great day to play football. Then it gets very interesting around here.

My early call is that areas north of the MA/NH border will see mostly snow out of this entire system, areas north of the Mass Pike will see a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow during the storm. Right now it could be either of these. I would favor more of a snow/sleet situation north of Route 2. More of a messy mix between Route 2 and the Pike. South of the Pike, I think that there will be mostly rain, but all areas are fair game for a quick change to all snow at the tail end of the storm, maybe with some accumulating snow. Northern New England, you got your wish. Skiing will be great with many areas getting a moderate to heavy snowstorm with 6-10" of snow, preliminary, especially heavy in central Vermont and central New Hampshire. Conway, NH could see some of the heaviest accumulations out of this one. Northern New England will not have precipitation issues as highs on Monday here will be in the upper 10's, far NNE, to mid 20's. SNE will be more borderline from the upper 20's in southern New Hampshire, lower 30's north of the Pike to mid - upper 30's with a chilly rain south of the Pike.

Expect changes with this storm and I will post them in the days ahead as we have tons of time before this thing is even here.

THE COLD HAS RETURNED FOR NOW...

Yes, the cold air was here today. It will be here tomorrow. I will have to make this a quick post because I have a paper due tomorrow. So it will be short and sweet. I agree that the "warm" air will make a run back at us for Friday and most of Saturday. I am not totally bought on an all rainstorm for Sunday - Monday quite yet, although that is the way I am leaning, towards a mostly rain event for areas in SNE. NNE may be a different story all together. That storm busts through and by Tuesday we are into the true Arctic air. Highs will likely be in the 20's and it will feel even colder with a biting north wind. Windchills will be in the 10's. Thereafter, we will be looking for our next snow threat, and I mean snow threat. No rain with the pattern upcoming next week and beyond.

More on the Martin Luther King Day storm potential in the days to come.

SURGING WARMTH YET AGAIN...

What a nice little January SNE rainstorm we had today. Rain pretty much from sunup to sundown. Rain was pretty heavy and soaking around two this afternoon. Most areas picked up between 0.75" to 1.5" of liquid today, except areas in the North, especially northern NH and Maine. In NH, northern areas picked up between 2-5" of slushy wet snow before transitioning to sleet and then rain. Areas in northern Maine got their snowstorm and wound up with a mostly all snow situation, with upwards of 6-8" of snow, heavy wet snow at that. That storm is ancient history now and we are looking forward. We are looking forward to colder air tomorrow. Tomorrow will still be above average, but not as much. We will see highs generally in the lower 40's, with ample sunshine, developing clouds late afternoon. There could be a widely scattered flurry, especially south of the Pike overnight Tuesday and Wednesday morning, but that we be just about it. That leads us into a decent Thursday with highs in the upper 30's to around 40, after morning lows in the upper 10's and low 20's. Crazy that Boston has yet to go below 32 this entire month. Thats over 200 hours of above freezing temperatures in the city of Boston. Amazing. The warmth surges back again on Friday with highs likely back into the mid 50's once again and even warmer on Saturday. Highs could easily top out in the upper 50's Saturday and Sunday, ahead of a strong Arctic, pattern changing, cold front, we may see temperatures soar to near record levels once again. Low 60's? A possiblility. Then as the graphic from Accuweather shows, we will be transitioning into a much colder, blocked pattern across the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48. This will be a pattern more condusive for sustained cold and more snow chances. There are signs now that the NAO could be dropping to near neutral by the middle of next week. Keep in mind that we usually get our biggest snowstorms when the NAO is nearing neutral. Ie the President's Day Blizzard of 2003 that dropped 27"+ to Logan and a widespread 18-24" to the entire megalopolis, from DC to Boston. Something to keep an eye on at least.

After Sunday's possible incredible warmth part II, I see Monday being a transition day with colder, much colder air blasting in from the WNW. I see Monday with highs likely in the mid-upper 30's, but in a few days, you will likely start to see some real cold entering the six day forecast. I am talking highs likely staying in the 20's and lows easily in the 10's and perhaps some 0's in the colder valleys for overnight temperatures. Ie, Norwood, Bedford, Taunton. Watch out.

COLD TO BALMY AGAIN...

Tomorrow will be a rainy day. Rain moves in tonight and it will come down at a pretty good clip. Rain, heavy at times, will continue into the morning. It will taper into the afternoon and be totally shut off by the PM commute. All said and done, we are talking about a healthy 1-2" of rainfall across much of SNE. However, there is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Berkshire Co. in MA and VT, NH and Maine for some freezing rain possible at the start. It will change to rain there as well. Where the cold air is stronger, more entrenched, in northern Maine, namely Caribou, like I said yesterday, they are currently under a Winter Storm Watch for around 6-10" of snowfall. I think that forecast may be overdoing it a bit, but a heavy wet 4-7" of snow looks probable to me.

Tuesday will be nice and cold with highs around 40. A clipper type system will be moving through the southern Ohio Valley at this time and could be depsiting a good 1-3" of snow over Cincinnatti and western PA, Pittsburgh may get a couple inches of snow out of this one as well. It will cut through West Virginia where it could deposit 3-6" of snow at Snowshoe, WV. The Appalachians will eat what is left of the storm and cause it to weaken and just head harmlessly out to sea. We may see a passing flurry at worst Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cold with highs in the lower to mid 30's, but we warm right back up again and by Friday we are back where we started, mid 50's with another storm likely heading west of us on Saturday which will propell us well into the 50's on Saturday, could we be talking record breaking heat again next Saturday. Possibly, I do not know the exact record for the 13th, but its possible.

Sunday, out of the forecast, could be mild again, but thereafter, the Arctic air finally looks to be moving in (for good?) next week. We will easily have highs by the middle of next week, struggling to get out of the 20's with lows in the single digits and teens. Northern New England may stay in the single digits for highs during the peak of the cold which is great news for snowmakers in the resorts. Now we just need to get some snow from Mother Nature and we will be back in business.

Thats all for now, more tomorrow.

Warm to Cold to Warm All Over Again

Well after temperatures in the lower 70's this afternoon, I can tell you that we probably will not see that kind of warmth again probably until April. Today was extreme and I hope it doesn't happen again this winter. Not that I didn't enjoy the June-like high temperatures. Baltimore hit 76 degrees today. This is insanity at its best. Tomorrow will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today, but it will still be 10 to 15 degrees above average. Go figure. The Pats game looks to go on without a hitch. Temperatures in the lower to mid 50's with a light breeze and partly to mostly sunny skies throughout the game. No chance of any rain. The rain will hold off until tomorrow night and Monday morning until about the early afternoon.

We could be in for quite a little rainstorm tomorrow night and Monday with perhaps another 1" to 1.5" of rainfall. On the backside of the storm, northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine may see a quick changeover to snow, after seeing mostly rain from the front end of the storm. The changeover to snow may accumulate to a couple inches in these areas. However in northern Maine, namely Caribou, this event may stay mostly snow and you guys may pick up a good 4-8" of snow, Winter Storm Watches may need to be posted by early tomorrow morning as you may see high end Advisory type snows or low Warning criteria snows. Generally about 6".

This storm ushers in some much colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday, but thats all it will do. We will just have a two day period of average to below average temperatures. Tuesday will be around 40 degrees with high cloudiness late. A few days ago, it looked like a healthy clipper type system would move south of our area and deposit some healthy snows on the order of 2-4" in SNE, but today's runs of the models show a much weaker scenario. Right now I would be that all SNE will see out of this Alberta Clipper is a scattered flurry, but this will be more confined to the South Coast and the Cape. It will be cold Wednesday with highs just getting over the freezing mark.

Since we are not changing the pattern, the cold will be in and out before the next real storm really moves in by Saturday. SW flow will begin on Thursday propelling much of SNE into the 40's. We step up again on Friday and will head into the weekend, basking in the January warmth again, mainly in the lower 50's before another storm cuts west of us and sends us into the "balmy" and tropical air once again. A repeat next Saturday? Geez, I hope not.

This winter is ridiculous. That rubber band has to shoot the other way soon. Right?

BREAKING OUT THE SHORTS AND FLIP FLOPS FOR SATURDAY?!

You think its warm out there, just wait until Saturday. You don't know what is warm for Saturday. Before that, we will have a decent day temperature wise tomorrow with highs soaring into the mid - upper 50's with cloudy skies and rain off and on. Saturday will feature AMAZING warmth with highs soaring into the 60's. If we get enough sunshine, which I think we will, highs will easily soar into the mid 60's. That is just how warm this airmass that is moving into our area will be. Some towns may come in with a 66 or 67 degree reading as well, if we get into enough sunshine. I am going with a high of 65 with any rain showers ending early and sunshine developing around noon and beyond. It will be a steamy day...maybe even time to break out the shorts? Possible, amazingly.

We will cool down for Sunday, the Pats game will be nice and mild. Gametime temperatures will be around 50 and hover around 50 most of the game, under mostly sunny skies. Monday we will cool down some more with rain likely, a cold rain at that with highs generally around 40 or 42. Rain/snow line, if the precip makes it that far will be in southern VT and NH and northwestern MA, in the Berkshires. We continue to cool for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs likely staying in the lower 30's by Wednesday. Won't that be a shock to the system, after Saturday's record warmth.

Looking for the cold to persist? Not this time, it looks like the cold air will be in and out by late week next week we will be back to above normal temperatures by 5 - 10 degrees. I don't think we will see a significant change in the pattern to more persistent cold until after Jan. 18th, or when the NAO looks to be tanking negative in the long term forecasts, which it does not appear any time soon, sadly. We will get winter, i think. Thats all for today.

IS THIS JANUARY?

DETAILED EXTENDED FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: A very nice day, with partly cloudy skies. SW wind 10 - 20 mph. Highs lower to mid 50's.

THURSDAY: Another nice and mild day. SW winds 10 - 20 mph. Highs upper 50's to around 60.

FRIDAY: Wet day overall. Widespread showers and rain. Rainfall may exceed 0.5" to 1.00". All rain into northern New England. Highs SNE lower to mid 50's. NNE highs in the 40's.

SATURDAY: Rain showers tapering early morning. May continue to be cloudy/drizzly through noon. Clouds may break early afternoon which will yield to near record highs. (lower 60's) Record for Boston is 62, we may come very close. Very mild overnight with lows in the middle 40's.

SUNDAY: Looks to be good for the Pats - Jets game. Partly Cloudy skies with increasing cloudiness late afternoon with approaching storm from the SW, riding along a stationary front. Highs in the mid 50's. Gametime temperatures (1 PM) 53 at kickoff to 48 when the Pats win.

MONDAY: Weak storm system riding to our south. May spread rain mainly south of the Mass Pike. Areas north of the Pike may be cold enough for a marginal rain/snow event if the precipitation moves that far north, but I wouldn't bet my life on that. Will likely see just showers south of the Pike with perhaps a more steady, but light, rain on the South Coast and down on the Cape and Islands. Temperatures will likely have a large spread. Highs north of the Pike to southern NH will likely stay in the upper 30's to around 40. South of the Pike ranging from the mid 40's to around 50 down on the Cape and Islands. Turning briefly colder for Tuesday before we warm up all over again.

DISCUSSION: Well, it seems like we are living in some place other than Boston or New England. Ridiculously warm temperatures will continue again tomorrow and for the rest of the week until perhaps Monday. Before that, we may come close to RECORD WARM temperatures on Saturday, especially closer to the coast with highs likely in the the upper 50's to near 60. Boston record for Saturday is 62, so I figured why not, we've been so mild, we might as well get another record out of it. Sunday will "cool" a bit with mid 50's before a cold front meanders with our area for early next week which may give some some wintry precipiation, but a little wet snow or sleet would be all that we would see. No accumulation. Then we go into a little cold spell for Tuesday with normal temperatures, mainly in the mid 30's. Thereafter, we will warm right back up, the way it looks right now into the mid - upper 40's to around 50 to end off the week next week. However, I am still eyeing a potential Pattern Change for the time period of January 16 - 18th, for a change in the jet stream with the Pac Jet becoming more amplified in the West, forcing cold air from the north in Canada, namely the North Pole, to slide in here with a Polar Vortex in northern Canada funneling the cold air into the eastern third of the country with above normal temperatures in the West for a change. So, today the 2nd, I am still all aboard for the PATTERN CHANGE. It just may be delayed a bit from my earlier thinking. Thats all for today, like I have been saying all winter, enjoy the warmth. Its New England, it can't last forever?

UGLY TIMES FOR SNOWLOVERS...

Happy New Year everyone! We enter the new year with the same old weather pattern. Warm, mild, and snowless. The first week of January 2007 looks to be very similar to the way most of January 2006 was. Tomorrow will be a fairly mild day for January with highs in the mid 40's regionwide; 30's in northern New England. Wednesday southwest winds will increase and warm air from the southwest will flood into New England. Highs by Wednesday will soar nicely into the lower 50's. As the high pressure system moves further offshore, towards Bermuda, "Bermuda High" highs will soar Thursday into the mid - upper 50's. I cannot even rule out the possibility of an isolated 60 degree reading. Friday into Saturday, our warm spell will continue and rain will move in by Friday night into Saturday morning, looking like Friday night could be quite damp, but not white.

Pats game against the Jets looks to be nice at this point, but we will be entering an unsettled weather pattern at the end of this week with many storms riding along a front. Enjoy the warmth this week. As others have backed down from the approaching pattern change for mid - month, I am still forecasting a major pattern change back to more persistent cold for the Northeast, I am not so sure that areas in the Mid Atlantic, south of Philadelphia will get all that cold. We will see. More updates on the incredible warmth, December '06 was the warmest month on record since the late 1800's. Average temperature of 41.7 degrees for the month, shattering the old record.