THE "OUT TO SEA" SPECIAL

Right now my confidence of this snowfall map is medium. I am not overly confident of this forecast verifying, but I feel pretty good enough to put it out there as my preliminary forecast. Yesterday afternoon, the NAM drifted away from the big storm idea by pushing it mainly out to sea. This was the 12z run of the NAM. The GFS was still bullish on QPF for much of SNE and CNE until 6z this morning, giving some parts of our area a light to fairly moderate snowstorm. It would have been a Category 2 Storm on Henry Marguarsity's Intensity Chart. However, the latest run of the 12z GFS has taken this storm much further to the S&E with limited precipiation in our area. Having said all this, the NAM has continued to show this storm going well out to sea consistently for about 24 hours now, which is a good streak for a computer model. Therefore, since the GFS has turned away from the storm being close to the coast and other models starting to keep the storm further S&E, including the Canadian, JMA, and UKMET. I have posted a map of minor accumulations at best to the S&E of Boston, where one to perhaps two inches is still possible. The Cape is the wild card. Down there expect a gloppy coating to an inch of snow.

Thats all for now on this "OUT TO SEA" storm. Any changes or revisions to the forecast and I will be the first to post them up.

THE WINTER OF NEVERENDING DISAPPOINTMENT

I don't have to tell you that I totally busted my forecast last night. I think everybody did, except Todd Gross. This winter is proving to be very deadly for people like me trying to put out a snowfall forecast. The models have become so unreliable that I feel like we are reduced to just forecasting on a whim.

Now that I got that out of the way, I have more bad news. Its looking clearer that the storm system for Friday will now be heading mostly if not all out to sea and will just graze the extreme eastern portion of New England with a mix of rain and snow. Accumulations look to be minor at best. Maybe a sloppy inch?

That said, any developments or changes to the forecast and I will be the first to report them. For now, its still looking like the winter of neverending disappointments for us snowlovers. Sorry, I wish I could change this horrific sequence of events.

KEEPING MY FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY

FWIW, there is a SNOW ADVISORY for SE MA and the Cape. It basically calls for snow to start around 10PM and continue until about NOON, ending from NW to SE. The Cape may go into ocean effect mode after the real meat and potatoes ends, adding to their accumulations. NWS is calling for a dusting to an inch outside of the advisory area to 2-4" in SE MA, then a whopping 3-6"+ for the extreme outer part of the Cape.

I will be sticking to my map from yesterday and hope for the best. I think that NWS may be overdoing it a tad, but the difference between a 2-4" forecast and a 3-6" forecast is really splitting hairs to tell you the truth. I was going to make a new map and post 2-5" for the Cape, but system stalled and I didn't bother.

Enjoy the snow as the once promising late week storm may want to stay out to sea and spare our area from any appreciable snows, except maybe the Cape and Islands where a few inches is still possible.

Its turning into NOWCAST time and I will be posting the snowfall amounts from tonight and tomorrow morning in tomorrow's post.

A LITTLE SURPRISE

Okay. This snowfall map has absolutely nothing to do with the Thursday night-Friday storm that will be affecting SNE. This is totally independent. It is forecasted for tomorrow night through Wednesday morning. What looked like a dying clipper system moving into our area, now looks like it will hit the water and be revived. This revival will occur very quickly and there will be a pretty decent shot of Atlantic moisture being tossed into this system and many areas could be picking up a fairly healthy surprise snowfall out of this one. It looks like the heaviest snowfall will occur in SE Mass and the Cape, as they will be closer to the quickly developing storm. Snows of 2-4" are likely there, after many areas picking up 1-3.5" of snow with ocean effect this morning. Otherwise a solid 1-2", isolated areas of 3" are possible for the rest of eastern SNE. This is a developing situation and will be outlining the effects of this surprise storm and the storm that will be a possible Kahuna for SNE later in the week.

MAJOR STORM UPDATE SOON

I am not going to post much if anything else today. I am playing it cool and watching the late week's storm evolution as the model suites come in. The models are still basically all over the place. Some show a pretty good sized snowstorm, others a rainstorm, and yet others still show a miss out to sea. I don't think it would be responsible to put out a forecast just yet with the possiblility of it to change so completely. Storm is still some 100 hours away, so there is much to be watched and a lot of time to watch it.

I will have another major update later tonight and we'll see what the models are showing with this storm tonight. Then by tomorrow, inside 72 hours, we'll have to start making some responsible forecasts. Until then, arrivederci.

THE WEEK AHEAD

We are at the beginning of another week again. We are entering the last week of January and Thursday will mark the beginning of February, infamous for some of Boston's biggest snowstorms ever. Will it happen this year? I honestly don't know. Long range forecasts look great concerning the temperatures as it now looks like this cold air will persist right through the entire month. We are leaving January and Boston sits with less than one inch of snow for the month and 1.5" for the entire season. That is truly amazing from the viewpoint of a climatologist and statistics maniac. I can tell you one thing, I think it will be very hard to get to normal snowfall this year as we would need 40" within the next two months basically. I know we can get snow into April, but we usually don't.

Will this week bring any snow? Yes is the short answer. Where is the next question. Tomorrow night the Cape and Islands will see some ocean effect snow which I detailed below in the next post with a snowfall accumulations map. Thereafter, cold air will filter into our area again with high back into the 20's for Tuesday and Wednesday. We will moderate into the low 30's late week and with the "warmup" a storm is forecasted to move into our area from the SW. Right now the GFS is taking this as an inland runner, actually tracking right over ORH and southern NH. This track would give much of SNE a mostly rain event. How much would that stink. We get so cold that the NW flow surpresses the storms to our south and east and then the trough axis moves far enough into the Midwest that the storm is allowed to develop in the OV and track along the Appalachians and we will be too warm for any snow. That would be awful to say the least and I would surely issue a "Suicide Watch" on Eastern Weather Forums for east coasters looking for the first big one of the season.

One thing on our side is the UKMET is giving this storm a much colder track that would mean mostly or all snow for SNE. UKMET was solid on the storm that missed us yesterday and Thursday last week when the GFS was giving us a monster about six days out. I wouldn't trust the GFS yet as this winter it has had a horrendous track record. If anything, the UKMET has been doing much better and should be followed by more. Time will tell. We need this one.

CAPE SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT

There will be some snow down on the Cape tomorrow with a storm passing way far to our south and east. This will likely usher in some freezing cold air and with the storm oriented such, it will pack some northerly winds which may spark off some ocean effect snow showers on the Cape, especially on Chatham and points further down the Cape. I know this didn't pan out the other day when 1-3" was widely forecasted, but I feel pretty confident of some snow accumulations, generally a coating to two inches, heaviest fluff on the outermost Cape. For the rest of us, we may see some snow flurries tomorrow morning, but that will be about it for storms the next 5 days.

ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE SUN - MON

Wow, was it cold out there this morning with lows in the single digits below zero to single digits above, with the biting NW wind at 25-35mph making it feel more like ten to twenty below zero. The good news is that we are just about done with the coldest of air. Tomorrow will be much warmer, compared to today, with highs approaching the freezing mark. We may actually see many towns surpass the freezing mark on Sunday, but there may be a price we have to pay along with the warmer temperatures.

A storm system will try to get its act together along an old stationary front in the Atlantic sometime Sunday morning. How close to the coast and how fast this storm develops along the front will determine how much and if SNE will see any snow out of this one. Right now, the computer models are pretty much all over the place, with the 06z NAM showing a moderate snowstorm in eastern SNE with an inverted trough giving us several inches of fluffy snow. However, in the 12z NAM run, it pushed that heavy band into SW CT and exiting off the Cape and Islands. Both the 0z GFS and NAM didn't even show snow for any of SNE, so we are making progress. Both 6z and 12z GFS outputs were a little more conservative on the QPF amounts as it usually is less bullish than the NAM, but still manages to give SE MA and the Cape a plowable snowstorm with many amounts greater than 2-3". This potential little sneaky storm is still about 72-84 hours away so there will be a lot of changes between now and then, but if there is a need to put out a map, I will be sure to put one out.

After the possible event on Sun-Mon, we will return to more cold weather with highs in the 20's to round off the week with another storm threat along about Thursday of next week. Stay warm.

IT DOESN'T GET ANY MORE BORING THAN THIS...

The weather does not get any more boring than this. Boston received a whopping 0.6" of snow yesterday and the day before. That whopping 0.6" added to the 0.8" gives Boston a seasonal total of 1.4" for the entire season. Normally we should be in the ballpark of 19" to 20" by now. Is there any snowfall in the forecast? Well, there may be a flurry or two tomorrow night down on the South Coast, but other than that the next six days look totally devoid of snow for SNE. We will get cold on Friday with highs struggling to reach 10, but we will warm up back into the 20's and 30's, with more sun. This winter is taking last winter's awful themes to the extreme and totally destroy the hopes of any snowlover east of the Ohio Valley.

I don't think I have ever made a 5 - 6 day without any chance of precipitation. This is just totally crazy. It will feature winter cold, but just not look like winter. It will feel like winter for sure. I don't know what to tell you guys. I wish I could say that next week looks better for our prospects for a decent snowfall. However, I can't. Its just not in the cards. Next week will be another cold week with highs staying in the 20's mostly, but thats about it. There won't be any big storms across the entire country. I guess we SNE'ers can take solice in that we are not the only ones suffering from an extreme snow drought this season. In fact many in the lower 48, excluding the Southern Plains and Rockies States are in a major snow drought. Its not just us, but it feels like it. I'm doing everything in my power to change this dreadful theme of the snowless winter of 2006 - 2007 and have changed the font of the blog posts.

I hope we can do something fast to change this dry pattern as we are nearly into the month of February with just a little over 1" of snow for the entire winter. If not, this season may go down as one of the all - time least snowy BOS winters. Its just plain depressing. What happened to the forecasts in the fall calling for 125 - 150% of normal snowfall for this winter? I honestly don't know. If you do, let me know. My guess in the fall of 50" in BOS this winter looks to be way off and now I am saying that this winter will be more like the winter of '01-02 where we only saw about 15" of snow. We may even come close to the snowless winters in the early 70's where we picked up around 8" of snow for the entire winter. So, as you can tell...I am backing down from my earlier post of 50" of snow down to about 10-20" of snow for the winter. In a normal winter that may seem miniscual at best, but 10-20" this year looks great. That means we still have 9-19" more to fall this winter, in two months.

THE ARCTIC IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE IN SNE THURSDAY

The true frigid air is arriving Thursday. Before that we have one more seasonable day tomorrow with highs around 30 or in the lower 30's. An arctic frontal passage will trigger a scattered snow shower or two tomorrow night with the small chance of a snow squall as well. This will introduce frigid air for Thursday with highs generally in the mid 10's in SNE and single digits in NNE. Friday morning will be down right dangerously cold. I would not be surprised if parts of New England will go under a Wind Chill Advisory or Wind Chill Warning for this time. Lows will be around 5 BELOW to ZERO ABOVE in SNE. NNE may see temperatures in the -20 to -10 degree range, with wind chills colder than 30 BELOW. SNE may see windchills in the -20 to -15 degree range.

We warm up for Saturday with the slight chance of a snow shower or period of very light snow with temperatures around 30. We will stay seasonable Sunday through Monday with highs in the lower 30's with no real storms in sight. Next week, hopefully we can get into a more stormy pattern with more chances of snow along the east coast.